Pisa1 - 2Genoa
Pisa7 trades, 43% precision — how did AI read this match?
Match Overview
Pisa hosted Genoa in the Serie A, finishing 1-2. Goals: S. Canestrelli (19'), J. Ekhator (41'), L. Colombo (54' pen), L. Colombo (55' pen). OddsFlow deployed 7 trades across 1 wave, achieving 43% precision with a net result of +$606.70 (ROI: +16.7%).
Pre-Match Odds
The Asian Handicap held at 0.25 but home odds shifted from 1.95 to 1.81; the Over/Under stayed at 2 with Over odds moving from 1.81 to 1.9; the home moneyline shortened from 3.4 to 3.26.
Trade Wave Analysis
### Wave 1 — Minute 56' (Score: 1-2) **Context:** Genoa leading 1-2 at 56'. L. Colombo scored moments ago. 2 models (system4_BLEND_v10, system4_MC_v10) entered Asian Handicap and Over/Under and Moneyline markets, targeting Pisa +1 and Genoa 0 and Over 3.5 and Genoa. Average expected value was 20.0%, with a combined stake of $3627. The sharpest edge was on Genoa (Moneyline): OddsFlow calculated 78.7% probability versus the market's implied 40.0% — a 38.7 percentage point gap at odds of 2.5. **Result:** 3 of 7 trades won, netting +$606.70.
Key Mispricing Moments
- **Minute 56'** — Moneyline Genoa: AI saw 78.7% vs market's 40.0% (38.7pp gap). correctly identified. - **Minute 56'** — Asian Handicap Genoa 0: AI saw 78.7% vs market's 54.1% (24.7pp gap). did not convert, but edge was real. - **Minute 56'** — Asian Handicap Genoa 0: AI saw 77.8% vs market's 58.0% (19.8pp gap). did not convert, but edge was real. - **Minute 56'** — Asian Handicap Pisa +1: AI saw 69.9% vs market's 55.6% (14.3pp gap). correctly identified. - **Minute 56'** — Asian Handicap Pisa +1: AI saw 69.4% vs market's 55.6% (13.9pp gap). correctly identified.
Model Performance
- **system4_MC_v10**: 4 trades, 2W/1L/1V, +$691.50 (ROI: +32.8%) - **system4_BLEND_v10**: 3 trades, 1W/1L/1V, $-84.80 (ROI: -5.6%)
Match Statistics
Possession was 43%–57% in Pisa's deficit. Pisa had 10 shots (4 on target) versus Genoa's 13 (5 on target). Expected goals: Pisa 1.05 — Genoa 1.65. Corners: 5-5.
Verdict
A positive result for OddsFlow with +16.7% ROI. The models found genuine edges though not all converted. Top performer: system4_MC_v10 at +$691.50.
What the closing market expected
The prices bookmakers settled on before kick-off, with the margin removed, next to what actually happened.
| Market | Line | Implied probability |
|---|---|---|
| 1X2 (home / draw / away) | Favourite: Away | 30.7% / 32.5% / 39.5% |
| Asian handicap | +0.25 | 55.3% |
| Over / Under | 2 | 52.6% |
Probabilities are de-vigged, so they describe the market's view rather than the price you would have been offered.
The Asian Handicap market underestimated Genoa's win probability against the spread.
The Serie A clash between Pisa and Genoa concluded 1-2, with Genoa securing an away victory. The 1x2 market accurately priced Genoa as the favorite (39.53% implied probability) and the outcome aligned, indicating good market efficiency for the outright winner. However, a significant market inefficiency was identified in the Asian Handicap. With a line of 0.25, the market slightly favored Pisa to cover (+0.25) with a 55.25% probability, despite Genoa ultimately winning the match and covering their -0.25 handicap. This suggests the market underestimated Genoa's ability to secure an outright win against the spread. Conversely, the Goals Over/Under market (line 2) showed strong efficiency. The market leaned towards the Over with a 52.63% probability, and the match delivered 3 goals, confirming the market's accurate projection for total goals.
A positive result with +16.7% ROI. The models found genuine edges, finishing at +$606.70. Top performer: HDP Sniper at +$691.50.
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