Pisa3 - 1Cagliari
PisaWhy did AI enter 2 times at 25', 37' — and still finish $-1897?
Match Overview
Pisa hosted Cagliari in the Serie A, finishing 3-1. Goals: S. Moreo (7' pen), S. Moreo (9' pen), A. Caracciolo (52'), A. Caracciolo (54'), L. Pavoletti (67'). Pisa received a red card (R. Durosinmi, 37'). OddsFlow deployed 6 trades across 2 waves, achieving 33% precision with a net result of $-1897.00 (ROI: -46.3%).
Pre-Match Odds
The Asian Handicap line moved from -0.25 to 0; the Over/Under stayed at 2 with Over odds moving from 1.82 to 1.97; the home moneyline drifted out from 2.54 to 2.64.
Trade Wave Analysis
### Wave 1 — Minute 25' (Score: 1-0) **Context:** Pisa leading 1-0 at 25'. 2 models (system4_BLEND_v10, system4_MC_v10) entered Asian Handicap markets, targeting Cagliari -0.5. Average expected value was 42.0%, with a combined stake of $1555. The sharpest edge was on Cagliari -0.5 (Asian Handicap): OddsFlow calculated 82.5% probability versus the market's implied 42.6% — a 40.0 percentage point gap at odds of 2.35. **Result:** All 2 trades lost, netting $-1555.00. ### Wave 2 — Minute 37' (Score: 1-0) **Context:** Pisa leading 1-0 at 37'. Pisa down to 10 men (R. Durosinmi red card 37'). 2 models (system4_BLEND_v10, system4_MC_v10) entered Asian Handicap and Moneyline markets, targeting Cagliari 0 and Pisa. Average expected value was 27.1%, with a combined stake of $2542. The sharpest edge was on Cagliari 0 (Asian Handicap): OddsFlow calculated 82.8% probability versus the market's implied 41.2% — a 41.5 percentage point gap at odds of 2.425. **Result:** 2 of 4 trades won, netting $-342.00.
Key Mispricing Moments
- **Minute 37'** — Asian Handicap Cagliari 0: AI saw 82.8% vs market's 41.2% (41.5pp gap). did not convert, but edge was real. - **Minute 37'** — Asian Handicap Cagliari 0: AI saw 82.3% vs market's 41.2% (41.1pp gap). did not convert, but edge was real. - **Minute 25'** — Asian Handicap Cagliari -0.5: AI saw 82.5% vs market's 42.6% (40.0pp gap). did not convert, but edge was real. - **Minute 25'** — Asian Handicap Cagliari -0.5: AI saw 81.7% vs market's 42.6% (39.1pp gap). did not convert, but edge was real.
Model Performance
- **system4_BLEND_v10**: 3 trades, 1W/2L, $-944.00 (ROI: -46.2%) - **system4_MC_v10**: 3 trades, 1W/2L, $-953.00 (ROI: -46.4%)
Match Statistics
Possession was 29%–71% in Pisa's deficit. Pisa had 10 shots (6 on target) versus Cagliari's 12 (4 on target). Expected goals: Pisa 2.47 — Cagliari 1.18. Corners: 1-5.
Verdict
A tough session at -46.3% ROI. The market moved against OddsFlow's positions, though the underlying probability assessments may still prove correct over a larger sample. Top performer: system4_BLEND_v10 at $-944.00.
A tough session at -46.3% ROI. The market moved against OddsFlow's positions. Top performer: Active Trader at $-944.00.
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