Parma1 - 0Sassuolo
ParmaWhy did AI enter 5 times at 0', 36', 46', 61', 80' — and still finish +$750?
Match Overview
Parma hosted Sassuolo in the Serie A, finishing 1-0. Goals: M. Pellegrino (80'). OddsFlow deployed 16 trades across 5 waves, achieving 63% precision with a net result of +$749.50 (ROI: +43.4%).
Pre-Match Odds
The Asian Handicap held at 0 but home odds shifted from 1.93 to 2.04; the home moneyline drifted out from 2.69 to 2.85.
Trade Wave Analysis
### Wave 1 — Minute 0' (Score: 0-0) **Context:** Scoreless at 0'. 1 model (S5.1_Pre) entered Over/Under markets, targeting Under 2.5. Average expected value was 15.1%, with a combined stake of $10. The sharpest edge was on Under 2.5 (Over/Under): OddsFlow calculated 59.0% probability versus the market's implied 51.3% — a 7.7 percentage point gap at odds of 1.95. **Result:** All 1 trades won, netting +$9.50. ### Wave 2 — Minute 36' (Score: 0-0) **Context:** Scoreless at 36'. 2 models (system4_BLEND_v10, system4_MC_v10) entered Over/Under markets, targeting Under 2 and Under 2.75 and Under 2.5 and Under 1.5. Average expected value was 36.3%, with a combined stake of $749. The sharpest edge was on Under 2.75 (Over/Under): OddsFlow calculated 80.3% probability versus the market's implied 51.0% — a 29.3 percentage point gap at odds of 1.96. **Result:** All 8 trades won, netting +$704.50. ### Wave 3 — Minute 46' (Score: 0-0) **Context:** Scoreless at 46'. 1 model (system4_MC_v10) entered Moneyline markets, targeting Draw. Average expected value was 28.8%, with a combined stake of $184. The sharpest edge was on Draw (Moneyline): OddsFlow calculated 43.7% probability versus the market's implied 27.4% — a 16.3 percentage point gap at odds of 3.65. **Result:** All 3 trades lost, netting $-184.00. ### Wave 4 — Minute 61' (Score: 0-0) **Context:** Scoreless at 61'. 1 model (system4_BLEND_v10) entered Moneyline markets, targeting Draw. Average expected value was 43.0%, with a combined stake of $144. The sharpest edge was on Draw (Moneyline): OddsFlow calculated 48.7% probability versus the market's implied 27.4% — a 21.3 percentage point gap at odds of 3.65. **Result:** All 2 trades lost, netting $-144.00. ### Wave 5 — Minute 80' (Score: 0-0) **Context:** Scoreless at 80'. 1 model (oddsflow_core_v8.1) entered Over/Under and Asian Handicap markets, targeting Under 1.5 and Sassuolo -1. Average expected value was 33.2%, with a combined stake of $640. The sharpest edge was on Sassuolo -1 (Asian Handicap): OddsFlow calculated 97.3% probability versus the market's implied 54.1% — a 43.2 percentage point gap at odds of 1.85. **Result:** 1 of 2 trades won, netting +$363.50.
Key Mispricing Moments
- **Minute 80'** — Asian Handicap Sassuolo -1: AI saw 97.3% vs market's 54.1% (43.2pp gap). did not convert, but edge was real. - **Minute 36'** — Over/Under Under 2.75: AI saw 80.3% vs market's 51.0% (29.3pp gap). correctly identified. - **Minute 36'** — Over/Under Under 2.75: AI saw 80.2% vs market's 51.0% (29.2pp gap). correctly identified. - **Minute 36'** — Over/Under Under 2: AI saw 80.3% vs market's 52.1% (28.2pp gap). correctly identified. - **Minute 36'** — Over/Under Under 2: AI saw 80.2% vs market's 52.1% (28.1pp gap). correctly identified.
Model Performance
- **oddsflow_core_v8.1**: 2 trades, 1W/0L/1V, +$363.50 (ROI: +56.8%) - **system4_BLEND_v10**: 6 trades, 4W/2L, +$208.00 (ROI: +40.2%) - **system4_MC_v10**: 7 trades, 4W/3L, +$168.50 (ROI: +30.1%) - **S5.1_Pre**: 1 trades, 1W/0L, +$9.50 (ROI: +95.0%)
Match Statistics
Possession was 52–48 in Parma's favor. Parma had 16 shots (3 on target) versus Sassuolo's 6 (1 on target). Expected goals: Parma 1.22 — Sassuolo 0.92. Corners: 1-1.
Verdict
A highly profitable match for OddsFlow. The AI models identified significant mispricings and converted them efficiently, returning +43.4% ROI. Top performer: oddsflow_core_v8.1 at +$363.50.
What the closing market expected
The prices bookmakers settled on before kick-off, with the margin removed, next to what actually happened.
| Market | Line | Implied probability |
|---|---|---|
| 1X2 (home / draw / away) | Favourite: Away | 35.1% / 29.9% / 38.3% |
| Asian handicap | 0 | 53.5% |
| Over / Under | 2.5 | 51.8% |
Probabilities are de-vigged, so they describe the market's view rather than the price you would have been offered.
Undervaluation of Under 2.5 Goals
Parma secured a 1-0 victory over Sassuolo, an outcome that highlights notable market inefficiencies. In the 1x2 market, Sassuolo closed as the slight favorite (38.31% implied probability), while Parma's winning probability was assessed at 35.09%. Parma's win represents a positive Closing Line Value (CLV) for backers. On the Asian Handicap 0 line, Sassuolo was favored to cover with 53.48%, but Parma's outright win delivered an EV+ signal for their backers. The most striking inefficiency, however, was in the Goals Over/Under 2.5 market. The market showed a lean towards the Over (51.81% implied probability), yet the match produced only 1 goal. This substantial discrepancy identifies a clear Value Signal for the Under 2.5, indicating bookmakers significantly mispriced the low-scoring potential of this fixture.
A highly profitable match for OddsFlow. The AI models identified significant mispricings and converted them efficiently, returning +43.4% ROI on 16 trades. Top performer: Oddsflow Core Strategy at +$363.50.
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