Parma1 - 1Napoli
ParmaWhat went wrong? 1 trades, $-100 — the AI's post-mortem.
Match Overview
Parma hosted Napoli in the Serie A, finishing 1-1. Goals: G. Strefezza (1'), S. McTominay (60'). OddsFlow deployed 1 trades across 1 wave, achieving 0% precision with a net result of $-100.00 (ROI: -50.0%).
Pre-Match Odds
The Asian Handicap line moved from 0.75 to 1; the home moneyline drifted out from 5.61 to 6.8.
Trade Wave Analysis
### Wave 1 — Minute 82' (Score: 1-1) **Context:** Level at 1-1, 82'. Napoli made 4 substitutions. 1 model (oddsflow_core_v8.1) entered Asian Handicap markets, targeting Napoli +0.25. Average expected value was 9.4%, with a combined stake of $200. The sharpest edge was on Napoli +0.25 (Asian Handicap): OddsFlow calculated 53.8% probability versus the market's implied 44.4% — a 9.4 percentage point gap at odds of 2.25. **Result:** All 1 trades lost, netting $-100.00.
Model Performance
- **oddsflow_core_v8.1**: 1 trades, 0W/0L/1V, $-100.00 (ROI: -50.0%)
Match Statistics
Possession was 26%–74% in Parma's deficit. Parma had 3 shots (2 on target) versus Napoli's 20 (6 on target). Expected goals: Parma 0.19 — Napoli 1.21. Corners: 3-7.
Verdict
A tough session at -50.0% ROI. The market moved against OddsFlow's positions, though the underlying probability assessments may still prove correct over a larger sample.
What the closing market expected
The prices bookmakers settled on before kick-off, with the margin removed, next to what actually happened.
| Market | Line | Implied probability |
|---|---|---|
| 1X2 (home / draw / away) | Favourite: Away | 14.7% / 25.6% / 63.3% |
| Asian handicap | +1 | 53.8% |
| Over / Under | 2.25 | 50.3% |
Probabilities are de-vigged, so they describe the market's view rather than the price you would have been offered.
The 1x2 market significantly undervalued the draw outcome.
The Serie A clash between Parma and Napoli concluded in a 1-1 draw, a result that exposed a significant market inefficiency in the 1x2 market. The pre-match closing odds indicated Napoli as strong favorites with an implied win probability of 63.29%, while a draw was priced at only 25.64%. This substantial disparity highlights a clear mispricing by bookmakers, as the actual outcome deviated sharply from the market's strong sentiment towards Napoli. In the handicap market, with Napoli at -1, Parma covering the spread (+1) was correctly perceived by the market with a 53.76% probability, reflecting an accurate assessment. Similarly, the Totals market correctly leaned towards Under 2.25 goals (52.36% probability), as the match ended with exactly two goals. The primary error lay in the failure to adequately price the draw, offering significant EV+ for bettors who identified the potential for an upset or stalemate.
A tough session at -50.0% ROI. The market moved against OddsFlow's positions.
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