Parma

0 - 2

Cremonese

Parma hosted Cremonese in the Serie A, finishing 0-2. Goals: Y. Maleh (54'), J. Vandeputte (68'). OddsFlow deployed 14 trades across 5 waves, achieving 43% precision with a net result of $-1525.50 (ROI: -21.8%).

The Asian Handicap held at -0.25 but home odds shifted from 1.79 to 1.87.

### Wave 1 — Minute 25' (Score: 0-0) **Context:** Scoreless at 25'. 2 models (system4_BLEND_v10, system4_MC_v10) entered Moneyline and Asian Handicap markets, targeting Parma and Parma -0.5. Average expected value was 13.2%, with a combined stake of $2000. The sharpest edge was on Parma -0.5 (Asian Handicap): OddsFlow calculated 50.9% probability versus the market's implied 38.5% — a 12.4 percentage point gap at odds of 2.6. **Result:** All 4 trades lost, netting $-2000.00. ### Wave 2 — Minute 38' (Score: 0-0) **Context:** Scoreless at 38'. 2 models (system4_BLEND_v10, system4_MC_v10) entered Asian Handicap markets, targeting Cremonese 0. Average expected value was 10.3%, with a combined stake of $1000. The sharpest edge was on Cremonese 0 (Asian Handicap): OddsFlow calculated 56.2% probability versus the market's implied 47.6% — a 8.6 percentage point gap at odds of 2.1. **Result:** All 2 trades won, netting +$1125.00. ### Wave 3 — Minute 41' (Score: 0-0) **Context:** Scoreless at 41'. 1 model (system4_BLEND_v10) entered Moneyline markets, targeting Draw. Average expected value was 4.6%, with a combined stake of $500. **Result:** All 1 trades lost, netting $-500.00. ### Wave 4 — Minute 44' (Score: 0-0) **Context:** Scoreless at 44'. 1 model (system4_MC_v10) entered Moneyline markets, targeting Draw. Average expected value was 7.8%, with a combined stake of $500. **Result:** All 1 trades lost, netting $-500.00. ### Wave 5 — Minute 53' (Score: 0-0) **Context:** Scoreless at 53'. 2 models (system4_BLEND_v10, system4_MC_v10) entered Over/Under and Asian Handicap markets, targeting Over 0.5 and Over 1.5 and Parma +0.5. Average expected value was 24.3%, with a combined stake of $3000. The sharpest edge was on Parma +0.5 (Asian Handicap): OddsFlow calculated 85.1% probability versus the market's implied 38.5% — a 46.7 percentage point gap at odds of 2.6. **Result:** 4 of 6 trades won, netting +$349.50.

- **Minute 55'** — Asian Handicap Parma +0.5: AI saw 85.1% vs market's 38.5% (46.7pp gap). did not convert, but edge was real. - **Minute 55'** — Asian Handicap Parma +0.5: AI saw 84.4% vs market's 38.5% (45.9pp gap). did not convert, but edge was real. - **Minute 54'** — Over/Under Over 1.5: AI saw 70.0% vs market's 47.6% (22.4pp gap). correctly identified. - **Minute 25'** — Asian Handicap Parma -0.5: AI saw 50.9% vs market's 38.5% (12.4pp gap). did not convert, but edge was real. - **Minute 25'** — Asian Handicap Parma -0.5: AI saw 50.7% vs market's 38.5% (12.3pp gap). did not convert, but edge was real.

- **system4_BLEND_v10**: 7 trades, 3W/4L, $-633.50 (ROI: -18.1%) - **system4_MC_v10**: 7 trades, 3W/4L, $-892.00 (ROI: -25.5%)

Possession was 51%–49% in Parma's favor. Parma had 7 shots (1 on target) versus Cremonese's 6 (4 on target). Expected goals: Parma 0.3 — Cremonese 0.71. Corners: 3-1.