Parma1 - 1Cagliari
ParmaWhy did AI enter 2 times at 43', 74' — and still finish +$1529?
Match Overview
Parma hosted Cagliari in the Serie A, finishing 1-1. Goals: M. Folorunsho (63'), G. Oristanio (83'). OddsFlow deployed 2 trades across 2 waves, achieving 50% precision with a net result of +$1528.62 (ROI: +93.6%).
Pre-Match Odds
The Asian Handicap line moved from 0 to -0.25; the Over/Under stayed at 2 with Over odds moving from 1.78 to 1.84; the home moneyline shortened from 2.55 to 2.29.
Trade Wave Analysis
### Wave 1 — Minute 43' (Score: 0-0) **Context:** Scoreless at 43'. 1 model (oddsflow_core_v8.1) entered Moneyline markets, targeting Parma. Average expected value was 8.4%, with a combined stake of $703. **Result:** All 1 trades lost, netting $-702.88. ### Wave 2 — Minute 74' (Score: 0-1) **Context:** Cagliari leading 0-1 at 74'. 1 model (oddsflow_core_v8.1) entered Moneyline markets, targeting Draw. Average expected value was 17.9%, with a combined stake of $930. The sharpest edge was on Draw (Moneyline): OddsFlow calculated 34.7% probability versus the market's implied 29.4% — a 5.3 percentage point gap at odds of 3.4. **Result:** All 1 trades won, netting +$2231.50.
Model Performance
- **oddsflow_core_v8.1**: 2 trades, 1W/1L, +$1528.62 (ROI: +93.6%)
Match Statistics
Possession was 55%–45% in Parma's favor. Parma had 15 shots (4 on target) versus Cagliari's 11 (5 on target). Expected goals: Parma 1.16 — Cagliari 0.52. Corners: 5-3.
Verdict
A highly profitable match for OddsFlow. The AI models identified significant mispricings and converted them efficiently, returning +93.6% ROI.
What the closing market expected
The prices bookmakers settled on before kick-off, with the margin removed, next to what actually happened.
| Market | Line | Implied probability |
|---|---|---|
| 1X2 (home / draw / away) | Favourite: Home | 43.7% / 33.2% / 25.9% |
| Asian handicap | -0.25 | 52.1% |
| Over / Under | 2 | 54.4% |
Probabilities are de-vigged, so they describe the market's view rather than the price you would have been offered.
The Asian Handicap market underestimated Cagliari +0.25.
The Serie A match between Parma and Cagliari concluded in a 1-1 draw. The 1x2 market priced a draw at an implied probability of 33.22%. While Parma was the market favorite at 43.67% to win, the actual draw outcome represented a reasonable expectation. No significant value signal here. Parma opened as a slight favorite with a handicap line of -0.25 (52.08% to cover). However, the 1-1 draw meant Parma failed to cover, and Cagliari +0.25 delivered a half-win (EV+) for those backing the underdog. This indicates a clear market inefficiency. The Over/Under 2.0 goals line saw a slight lean towards the Over (54.35%). With exactly 2 goals scored, bets on Over 2.0 and Under 2.0 would have been a push (refund) in most Asian markets. No strong value signal was generated here.
A highly profitable match for OddsFlow. The AI models identified significant mispricings and converted them efficiently, returning +93.6% ROI on 2 trades.
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