Parma2 - 3AS Roma
ParmaWhy did AI enter 2 times at 0', 69' — and still finish $-1000?
Match Overview
Parma hosted AS Roma in the Serie A, finishing 2-3. Goals: D. Malen (22'), G. Strefezza (47'), M. Keita (87'), D. Malen (90' pen), D. Rensch (90'). Parma received a red card (S. Britschgi, 90'). OddsFlow deployed 3 trades across 2 waves, achieving 0% precision with a net result of $-1000.00 (ROI: -74.5%).
Pre-Match Odds
The Asian Handicap line moved from 0.75 to 1.25; the Over/Under line shifted from 2.25 to 2.5; the home moneyline drifted out from 4.57 to 7.75.
Trade Wave Analysis
### Wave 1 — Minute 0' (Score: 0-0) **Context:** Scoreless at 0'. 1 model (S5.1_Pre) entered Asian Handicap markets, targeting Parma +1. Average expected value was 14.7%, with a combined stake of $343. **Result:** 0 of 1 trades won, netting +$0.00. ### Wave 2 — Minute 69' (Score: 1-1) **Context:** Level at 1-1, 69'. 2 models (system4_BLEND_v10, system4_MC_v10) entered Moneyline markets, targeting Draw. Average expected value was 9.7%, with a combined stake of $1000. The sharpest edge was on Draw (Moneyline): OddsFlow calculated 56.4% probability versus the market's implied 50.0% — a 6.4 percentage point gap at odds of 2. **Result:** All 2 trades lost, netting $-1000.00.
Model Performance
- **S5.1_Pre**: 1 trades, 0W/0L/1V, +$0.00 (ROI: +0.0%) - **system4_BLEND_v10**: 1 trades, 0W/1L, $-500.00 (ROI: -100.0%) - **system4_MC_v10**: 1 trades, 0W/1L, $-500.00 (ROI: -100.0%)
Match Statistics
Possession was 33–67 in Parma's deficit. Parma had 11 shots (3 on target) versus AS Roma's 14 (6 on target). Expected goals: Parma 0.71 — AS Roma 1.79. Corners: 3-6.
Verdict
A tough session at -74.5% ROI. The market moved against OddsFlow's positions, though the underlying probability assessments may still prove correct over a larger sample. Top performer: S5.1_Pre at +$0.00.
What the closing market expected
The prices bookmakers settled on before kick-off, with the margin removed, next to what actually happened.
| Market | Line | Implied probability |
|---|---|---|
| 1X2 (home / draw / away) | Favourite: Away | 12.9% / 22.8% / 67.6% |
| Asian handicap | +1.25 | 55.0% |
| Over / Under | 2.5 | 48.3% |
Probabilities are de-vigged, so they describe the market's view rather than the price you would have been offered.
The Over/Under 2.5 Goals market was significantly mispriced, with a strong value signal on Over.
The Serie A clash between Parma and AS Roma (2-3) saw AS Roma secure a narrow victory, aligning with the 1X2 market's favoritism for the away side (67.57% implied win probability). In the Handicap market, AS Roma failed to cover the -1.25 line, with Parma +1.25 covering as the market had slightly favored (54.95%). However, the most pronounced market inefficiency was found in the Total Goals (Over/Under 2.5) market. The closing line sentiment heavily leaned towards the Under (54.05% probability), yet the match exploded with 5 goals, creating an undeniable Over 2.5 Value Signal. This highlights a significant mispricing by bookmakers on the total goals.
A tough session at -74.5% ROI. The market moved against OddsFlow's positions. Top performer: PreMatch Edge at +$0.00.
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