Napoli1 - 0Udinese
NapoliWhy did AI enter 4 times at 0', 10', 25', 37' — and still finish +$398?
Match Overview
Napoli hosted Udinese in the Serie A, finishing 1-0. Goals: R. Hojlund (24'). Udinese received a red card (C. Kabasele, 64'). OddsFlow deployed 6 trades across 4 waves, achieving 67% precision with a net result of +$398.25 (ROI: +72.5%).
Pre-Match Odds
The Asian Handicap line moved from -1 to -1.25; the Over/Under stayed at 2.5 with Over odds moving from 1.93 to 1.85.
Trade Wave Analysis
### Wave 1 — Minute 0' (Score: 0-0) **Context:** Scoreless at 0'. 1 model (S5.1_Pre) entered Asian Handicap markets, targeting Udinese -1.25. Average expected value was 22.3%, with a combined stake of $10. The sharpest edge was on Udinese -1.25 (Asian Handicap): OddsFlow calculated 66.1% probability versus the market's implied 54.1% — a 12.1 percentage point gap at odds of 1.85. **Result:** All 1 trades won, netting +$4.25. ### Wave 2 — Minute 10' (Score: 0-0) **Context:** Scoreless at 10'. 1 model (oddsflow_core_v8.1) entered Asian Handicap markets, targeting Udinese -1. Average expected value was 24.6%, with a combined stake of $150. The sharpest edge was on Udinese -1 (Asian Handicap): OddsFlow calculated 67.0% probability versus the market's implied 49.5% — a 17.5 percentage point gap at odds of 2.02. **Result:** 0 of 2 trades won, netting +$0.00. ### Wave 3 — Minute 25' (Score: 1-0) **Context:** Napoli leading 1-0 at 25'. R. Hojlund scored moments ago. 1 model (oddsflow_core_v8.1) entered Asian Handicap markets, targeting Udinese -1.5. Average expected value was 36.3%, with a combined stake of $100. The sharpest edge was on Udinese -1.5 (Asian Handicap): OddsFlow calculated 83.1% probability versus the market's implied 48.8% — a 34.3 percentage point gap at odds of 2.05. **Result:** All 1 trades won, netting +$105.00. ### Wave 4 — Minute 37' (Score: 1-0) **Context:** Napoli leading 1-0 at 37'. 2 models (system4_BLEND_v10, system4_MC_v10) entered Asian Handicap markets, targeting Udinese -1.5. Average expected value was 38.4%, with a combined stake of $289. The sharpest edge was on Udinese -1.5 (Asian Handicap): OddsFlow calculated 86.9% probability versus the market's implied 50.0% — a 36.9 percentage point gap at odds of 2. **Result:** All 2 trades won, netting +$289.00.
Key Mispricing Moments
- **Minute 37'** — Asian Handicap Udinese -1.5: AI saw 86.9% vs market's 50.0% (36.9pp gap). correctly identified. - **Minute 37'** — Asian Handicap Udinese -1.5: AI saw 86.1% vs market's 50.0% (36.1pp gap). correctly identified. - **Minute 25'** — Asian Handicap Udinese -1.5: AI saw 83.1% vs market's 48.8% (34.3pp gap). correctly identified. - **Minute 10'** — Asian Handicap Udinese -1: AI saw 67.0% vs market's 49.5% (17.5pp gap). did not convert, but edge was real. - **Minute 0'** — Asian Handicap Udinese -1.25: AI saw 66.1% vs market's 54.1% (12.1pp gap). correctly identified.
Model Performance
- **system4_BLEND_v10**: 1 trades, 1W/0L, +$146.00 (ROI: +100.0%) - **system4_MC_v10**: 1 trades, 1W/0L, +$143.00 (ROI: +100.0%) - **oddsflow_core_v8.1**: 3 trades, 1W/0L/2V, +$105.00 (ROI: +42.0%) - **S5.1_Pre**: 1 trades, 0W/0L/1V, +$4.25 (ROI: +42.5%)
Match Statistics
Possession was 67–33 in Napoli's favor. Napoli had 14 shots (6 on target) versus Udinese's 8 (3 on target). Expected goals: Napoli 1.81 — Udinese 0.41. Corners: 3-2.
Verdict
A highly profitable match for OddsFlow. The AI models identified significant mispricings and converted them efficiently, returning +72.5% ROI. Top performer: system4_BLEND_v10 at +$146.00.
What the closing market expected
The prices bookmakers settled on before kick-off, with the margin removed, next to what actually happened.
| Market | Line | Implied probability |
|---|---|---|
| 1X2 (home / draw / away) | Favourite: Home | 68.0% / 22.4% / 13.2% |
| Asian handicap | -1.25 | 47.9% |
| Over / Under | 2.5 | 54.0% |
Probabilities are de-vigged, so they describe the market's view rather than the price you would have been offered.
The market significantly overvalued Over 2.5 goals.
Napoli secured a narrow 1-0 victory against Udinese, a result that provides clear insights into market efficiencies. In the 1x2 market, Napoli was correctly priced as the heavy favorite (68.03% implied win probability), and the actual outcome aligned with expectations. However, the Handicap market saw Napoli fail to cover the -1.25 line, winning by only one goal. The most significant inefficiency emerged in the Totals market (Over/Under 2.5 goals). Despite the market leaning towards Over 2.5 goals (54.05% probability), the match finished with a single goal, making the Under 2.5 a strong EV+ signal. Bookmakers clearly misjudged the low-scoring nature of this encounter.
A highly profitable match for OddsFlow. The AI models identified significant mispricings and converted them efficiently, returning +72.5% ROI on 6 trades. Top performer: Active Trader at +$146.00.
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