Napoli0 - 2Lazio
NapoliWhy did AI enter 2 times at 25', 30' — and still finish $-3311?
Match Overview
Napoli hosted Lazio in the Serie A, finishing 0-2. Goals: M. Cancellieri (6'), T. Basic (57'). OddsFlow deployed 5 trades across 2 waves, achieving 0% precision with a net result of $-3311.00 (ROI: -100.0%).
Pre-Match Odds
The Asian Handicap line moved from -0.75 to -1.
Trade Wave Analysis
### Wave 1 — Minute 25' (Score: 0-1) **Context:** Lazio leading 0-1 at 25'. 2 models (system4_MC_v10, system4_BLEND_v10) entered Asian Handicap markets, targeting Napoli -0.5. Average expected value was 28.2%, with a combined stake of $1000. The sharpest edge was on Napoli -0.5 (Asian Handicap): OddsFlow calculated 63.3% probability versus the market's implied 37.4% — a 25.9 percentage point gap at odds of 2.675. **Result:** All 2 trades lost, netting $-1000.00. ### Wave 2 — Minute 30' (Score: 0-1) **Context:** Lazio leading 0-1 at 30'. 2 models (system4_MC_v10, system4_BLEND_v10) entered Asian Handicap and Moneyline markets, targeting Napoli +0.5 and Napoli. Average expected value was 34.7%, with a combined stake of $2311. The sharpest edge was on Napoli +0.5 (Asian Handicap): OddsFlow calculated 88.1% probability versus the market's implied 43.5% — a 44.6 percentage point gap at odds of 2.3. **Result:** All 3 trades lost, netting $-2311.00.
Key Mispricing Moments
- **Minute 30'** — Asian Handicap Napoli +0.5: AI saw 88.1% vs market's 43.5% (44.6pp gap). did not convert, but edge was real. - **Minute 30'** — Asian Handicap Napoli +0.5: AI saw 88.1% vs market's 43.5% (44.6pp gap). did not convert, but edge was real. - **Minute 25'** — Asian Handicap Napoli -0.5: AI saw 63.3% vs market's 37.4% (25.9pp gap). did not convert, but edge was real. - **Minute 25'** — Asian Handicap Napoli -0.5: AI saw 63.3% vs market's 37.4% (25.9pp gap). did not convert, but edge was real. - **Minute 30'** — Moneyline Napoli: AI saw 31.9% vs market's 20.0% (11.9pp gap). did not convert, but edge was real.
Model Performance
- **system4_BLEND_v10**: 2 trades, 0W/2L, $-1405.00 (ROI: -100.0%) - **system4_MC_v10**: 3 trades, 0W/3L, $-1906.00 (ROI: -100.0%)
Match Statistics
Possession was 67%–33% in Napoli's favor. Napoli had 11 shots (0 on target) versus Lazio's 14 (7 on target). Expected goals: Napoli 0.49 — Lazio 2.26. Corners: 11-0.
Verdict
A tough session at -100.0% ROI. The market moved against OddsFlow's positions, though the underlying probability assessments may still prove correct over a larger sample. Top performer: system4_BLEND_v10 at $-1405.00.
What the closing market expected
The prices bookmakers settled on before kick-off, with the margin removed, next to what actually happened.
| Market | Line | Implied probability |
|---|---|---|
| 1X2 (home / draw / away) | Favourite: Home | 64.1% / 25.7% / 13.4% |
| Asian handicap | -1 | 50.3% |
| Over / Under | 2.25 | 50.3% |
Probabilities are de-vigged, so they describe the market's view rather than the price you would have been offered.
The significant undervaluation of Lazio in the 1x2 market.
In a stunning Serie A encounter, Lazio secured a decisive 2-0 away victory against Napoli. The 1x2 market significantly misjudged this fixture, assigning Napoli a 64.1% win probability while pricing a Lazio upset at a mere 13.42%. This represents a substantial market inefficiency, indicating a clear EV+ opportunity for those backing the away side. On the handicap market, Napoli started as -1 favorites (50.25% to cover), but Lazio comfortably covered their +1 line, demonstrating their superior performance. The Goals Over/Under market at 2.25 goals saw a slight lean towards the Under (52.08% probability), which proved accurate as the match concluded with exactly two goals, resulting in a half-win for Under bettors.
A tough session at -100.0% ROI. The market moved against OddsFlow's positions. Top performer: Active Trader at $-1405.00.
See AI signals as they happen
This report shows settled results. Get real-time AI signals during live matches.