Napoli2 - 1Fiorentina
NapoliWhat went wrong? 3 trades, $-480 — the AI's post-mortem.
Match Overview
Napoli hosted Fiorentina in the Serie A, finishing 2-1. Goals: A. Vergara (11'), Juan Jesus (49'), M. Gutierrez (49'), M. Solomon (57'). OddsFlow deployed 3 trades across 1 wave, achieving 0% precision with a net result of $-480.42 (ROI: -100.0%).
Pre-Match Odds
The Asian Handicap line moved from -0.75 to -0.5; the Over/Under stayed at 2.25 with Over odds moving from 1.88 to 1.94; the home moneyline drifted out from 1.66 to 2.04.
Trade Wave Analysis
### Wave 1 — Minute 20' (Score: 1-0) **Context:** Napoli leading 1-0 at 20'. 1 model (oddsflow_core_v8.1) entered Asian Handicap markets, targeting Napoli -1.25. Average expected value was 5.1%, with a combined stake of $480. The sharpest edge was on Napoli -1.25 (Asian Handicap): OddsFlow calculated 60.7% probability versus the market's implied 55.6% — a 5.1 percentage point gap at odds of 1.8. **Result:** All 3 trades lost, netting $-480.42.
Model Performance
- **oddsflow_core_v8.1**: 3 trades, 0W/3L, $-480.42 (ROI: -100.0%)
Match Statistics
Possession was 53%–47% in Napoli's favor. Napoli had 20 shots (6 on target) versus Fiorentina's 14 (5 on target). Expected goals: Napoli 1.91 — Fiorentina 1.33. Corners: 4-4.
Verdict
A tough session at -100.0% ROI. The market moved against OddsFlow's positions, though the underlying probability assessments may still prove correct over a larger sample.
What the closing market expected
The prices bookmakers settled on before kick-off, with the margin removed, next to what actually happened.
| Market | Line | Implied probability |
|---|---|---|
| 1X2 (home / draw / away) | Favourite: Home | 49.0% / 30.9% / 23.0% |
| Asian handicap | -0.5 | 48.8% |
| Over / Under | 2.25 | 51.5% |
Probabilities are de-vigged, so they describe the market's view rather than the price you would have been offered.
The Over 2.25 Goals market presented a clear value signal.
Napoli secured a 2-1 victory over Fiorentina in Serie A. The 1x2 market accurately priced Napoli as slight favorites with a 49.02% implied win probability, indicating a generally efficient market sentiment for the outright winner. On the Asian Handicap of -0.5, Napoli successfully covered, aligning with the market's 48.78% probability for them to do so. The most significant insight comes from the Totals market, where the Over 2.25 Goals line was correctly identified by the market with a 51.55% probability. The match's total of 3 goals confirmed this lean, presenting a clear value signal for bettors who followed the "Over" trend.
A tough session at -100.0% ROI. The market moved against OddsFlow's positions.
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