Napoli4 - 0Cremonese
NapoliWhat went wrong? 3 trades, $-1369 — the AI's post-mortem.
Match Overview
Napoli hosted Cremonese in the Serie A, finishing 4-0. Goals: S. McTominay (3'), R. Hojlund (45'), F. Terracciano (45' OG), K. De Bruyne (45'), Alisson Santos (52'). OddsFlow deployed 3 trades across 1 wave, achieving 0% precision with a net result of $-1369.00 (ROI: -100.0%).
Pre-Match Odds
The Asian Handicap line moved from -1.5 to -1.25.
Trade Wave Analysis
### Wave 1 — Minute 24' (Score: 1-0) **Context:** Napoli leading 1-0 at 24'. 3 models (oddsflow_core_v8.1, system4_BLEND_v10, system4_MC_v10) entered Asian Handicap markets, targeting Cremonese -1.5. Average expected value was 34.8%, with a combined stake of $1369. The sharpest edge was on Cremonese -1.5 (Asian Handicap): OddsFlow calculated 72.8% probability versus the market's implied 40.0% — a 32.8 percentage point gap at odds of 2.5. **Result:** All 3 trades lost, netting $-1369.00.
Key Mispricing Moments
- **Minute 25'** — Asian Handicap Cremonese -1.5: AI saw 72.8% vs market's 40.0% (32.8pp gap). did not convert, but edge was real. - **Minute 25'** — Asian Handicap Cremonese -1.5: AI saw 72.4% vs market's 40.0% (32.4pp gap). did not convert, but edge was real. - **Minute 24'** — Asian Handicap Cremonese -1.5: AI saw 71.8% vs market's 40.0% (31.8pp gap). did not convert, but edge was real.
Model Performance
- **oddsflow_core_v8.1**: 1 trades, 0W/1L, $-200.00 (ROI: -100.0%) - **system4_BLEND_v10**: 1 trades, 0W/1L, $-581.00 (ROI: -100.0%) - **system4_MC_v10**: 1 trades, 0W/1L, $-588.00 (ROI: -100.0%)
Match Statistics
Napoli had 25 shots (10 on target) versus Cremonese's 0 (0 on target).
Verdict
A tough session at -100.0% ROI. The market moved against OddsFlow's positions, though the underlying probability assessments may still prove correct over a larger sample. Top performer: oddsflow_core_v8.1 at $-200.00.
What the closing market expected
The prices bookmakers settled on before kick-off, with the margin removed, next to what actually happened.
| Market | Line | Implied probability |
|---|---|---|
| 1X2 (home / draw / away) | Favourite: Home | 0.7% / 0.2% / 0.1% |
| Asian handicap | -1.25 | 0.5% |
| Over / Under | 2.5 | 0.5% |
Probabilities are de-vigged, so they describe the market's view rather than the price you would have been offered.
The market significantly undervalued the probability of Over 2.5 Goals, presenting a clear EV+ opportunity.
Napoli dominated Cremonese with a commanding 4-0 victory. The 1x2 market correctly identified Napoli as strong favorites with a 72.46% implied win probability. In the Handicap market, Napoli comfortably covered the -1.25 line, indicating a solid win for those backing the favorites. However, the most significant market inefficiency emerged in the Totals (Over/Under) market. Despite a slight lean towards Over 2.5 goals (52.08% implied probability), the final tally of 4 goals against a 2.5 line demonstrates a considerable undervaluation of goal-scoring potential. This created a strong EV+ opportunity for bettors on the Over, signaling that the bookmakers misjudged the true scoring likelihood.
A tough session at -100.0% ROI. The market moved against OddsFlow's positions. Top performer: Oddsflow Core Strategy at $-200.00.
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