Lecce1 - 0Genoa
LecceWhy did AI enter 6 times at 0', 35', 40', 55', 67', 77' — and still finish +$324?
Match Overview
Lecce hosted Genoa in the Serie A, finishing 1-0. Goals: L. Banda (6'), L. Banda (7'). OddsFlow deployed 16 trades across 6 waves, achieving 63% precision with a net result of +$323.99 (ROI: +15.7%).
Pre-Match Odds
The Asian Handicap line moved from -0.75 to -0.5; the Over/Under line shifted from 2.25 to 2; the home moneyline drifted out from 1.65 to 1.88.
Trade Wave Analysis
### Wave 1 — Minute 0' (Score: 0-0) **Context:** Scoreless at 0'. 1 model (S5.1_Pre) entered Moneyline markets, targeting Genoa. Average expected value was 58.3%, with a combined stake of $10. The sharpest edge was on Genoa (Moneyline): OddsFlow calculated 32.8% probability versus the market's implied 20.7% — a 12.1 percentage point gap at odds of 4.83. **Result:** All 1 trades lost, netting $-10.00. ### Wave 2 — Minute 35' (Score: 1-0) **Context:** Lecce leading 1-0 at 35'. 3 models (system4_MC_v10, system4_HYBRID_v10, system4_BLEND_v10) entered Asian Handicap markets, targeting Genoa -1. Average expected value was 53.6%, with a combined stake of $439. The sharpest edge was on Genoa -1 (Asian Handicap): OddsFlow calculated 93.2% probability versus the market's implied 42.1% — a 51.1 percentage point gap at odds of 2.375. **Result:** All 3 trades won, netting +$603.63. ### Wave 3 — Minute 40' (Score: 1-0) **Context:** Lecce leading 1-0 at 40'. 2 models (system4_BLEND_v10, system4_MC_v10) entered Over/Under markets, targeting Under 2.25 and Under 3.5. Average expected value was 46.3%, with a combined stake of $676. The sharpest edge was on Under 2.25 (Over/Under): OddsFlow calculated 88.8% probability versus the market's implied 55.2% — a 33.5 percentage point gap at odds of 1.81. **Result:** All 6 trades won, netting +$415.00. ### Wave 4 — Minute 55' (Score: 1-0) **Context:** Lecce leading 1-0 at 55'. 2 models (system4_MC_v10, system4_BLEND_v10) entered Over/Under markets, targeting Over 2.25 and Over 1.5. Average expected value was 28.1%, with a combined stake of $300. The sharpest edge was on Over 2.25 (Over/Under): OddsFlow calculated 70.0% probability versus the market's implied 48.3% — a 21.7 percentage point gap at odds of 2.07. **Result:** All 4 trades lost, netting $-300.00. ### Wave 5 — Minute 67' (Score: 1-0) **Context:** Lecce leading 1-0 at 67'. 1 model (oddsflow_core_v8.1) entered Over/Under markets, targeting Over 1.5. Average expected value was 25.8%, with a combined stake of $500. The sharpest edge was on Over 1.5 (Over/Under): OddsFlow calculated 60.0% probability versus the market's implied 50.0% — a 10.0 percentage point gap at odds of 2. **Result:** All 1 trades lost, netting $-500.00. ### Wave 6 — Minute 77' (Score: 1-0) **Context:** Lecce leading 1-0 at 77'. 1 model (oddsflow_core_v8.1) entered Asian Handicap markets, targeting Genoa -1. Average expected value was 43.9%, with a combined stake of $144. The sharpest edge was on Genoa -1 (Asian Handicap): OddsFlow calculated 97.1% probability versus the market's implied 55.6% — a 41.6 percentage point gap at odds of 1.8. **Result:** All 1 trades won, netting +$115.36.
Key Mispricing Moments
- **Minute 35'** — Asian Handicap Genoa -1: AI saw 93.2% vs market's 42.1% (51.1pp gap). correctly identified. - **Minute 35'** — Asian Handicap Genoa -1: AI saw 93.1% vs market's 42.1% (51.0pp gap). correctly identified. - **Minute 35'** — Asian Handicap Genoa -1: AI saw 92.9% vs market's 42.1% (50.8pp gap). correctly identified. - **Minute 77'** — Asian Handicap Genoa -1: AI saw 97.1% vs market's 55.6% (41.6pp gap). correctly identified. - **Minute 40'** — Over/Under Under 2.25: AI saw 88.8% vs market's 55.2% (33.5pp gap). correctly identified.
Model Performance
- **system4_MC_v10**: 6 trades, 4W/2L, +$260.13 (ROI: +40.9%) - **system4_BLEND_v10**: 6 trades, 4W/2L, +$257.75 (ROI: +40.7%) - **system4_HYBRID_v10**: 1 trades, 1W/0L, +$200.75 (ROI: +137.5%) - **S5.1_Pre**: 1 trades, 0W/1L, $-10.00 (ROI: -100.0%) - **oddsflow_core_v8.1**: 2 trades, 1W/1L, $-384.64 (ROI: -59.7%)
Match Statistics
Possession was 33–67 in Lecce's deficit. Lecce had 9 shots (4 on target) versus Genoa's 8 (1 on target). Expected goals: Lecce 1.76 — Genoa 0.77. Corners: 1-5.
Verdict
A positive result for OddsFlow with +15.7% ROI. The models found genuine edges though not all converted. Top performer: system4_MC_v10 at +$260.13.
What the closing market expected
The prices bookmakers settled on before kick-off, with the margin removed, next to what actually happened.
| Market | Line | Implied probability |
|---|---|---|
| 1X2 (home / draw / away) | Favourite: Home | 53.2% / 29.1% / 20.7% |
| Asian handicap | -0.5 | 53.2% |
| Over / Under | 2 | 55.0% |
Probabilities are de-vigged, so they describe the market's view rather than the price you would have been offered.
The market significantly mispriced the Under 2.0 goals, leaning heavily towards Over when the match delivered only one goal.
Lecce secured a 1-0 victory against Genoa. The 1x2 market correctly identified Lecce as the favorite (53.19% implied probability), aligning with the actual home win. Similarly, the Asian Handicap (-0.5) for Lecce also proved efficient, as Lecce covered the spread by winning by a single goal, matching the market's 53.19% implied probability for them to cover. However, a significant market inefficiency was detected in the Total Goals (Over/Under) market. The closing line heavily favored **Over 2.0 goals** with an implied probability of 54.95%, reflecting strong market sentiment for a higher-scoring game. The actual outcome of only 1 goal meant that the **Under 2.0 goals** was the clear winning bet, indicating a substantial Closing Line Value (CLV) opportunity for bettors who faded the market's Over bias.
A positive result with +15.7% ROI. The models found genuine edges, finishing at +$323.99. Top performer: HDP Sniper at +$260.13.
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