Lecce1 - 1Fiorentina
LecceWhy did AI enter 7 times at 15', 25', 30', 35', 41', 66', 76' — and still finish +$7777?
Match Overview
Lecce hosted Fiorentina in the Serie A, finishing 1-1. Goals: J. Harrison (30'), Tiago Gabriel (71'). OddsFlow deployed 20 trades across 7 waves, achieving 65% precision with a net result of +$7777.00 (ROI: +73.1%).
Pre-Match Odds
The Asian Handicap held at 0.25 but home odds shifted from 2 to 2.03; the Over/Under stayed at 2.25 with Over odds moving from 1.92 to 1.98; the home moneyline drifted out from 3.44 to 3.57.
Trade Wave Analysis
### Wave 1 — Minute 15' (Score: 0-0) **Context:** Scoreless at 15'. 1 model (oddsflow_core_v8.1) entered Asian Handicap markets, targeting Fiorentina 0. Average expected value was 23.7%, with a combined stake of $200. The sharpest edge was on Fiorentina 0 (Asian Handicap): OddsFlow calculated 79.0% probability versus the market's implied 58.8% — a 20.1 percentage point gap at odds of 1.7. **Result:** 0 of 1 trades won, netting +$0.00. ### Wave 2 — Minute 25' (Score: 0-0) **Context:** Scoreless at 25'. 3 models (system4_BLEND_v10, system4_MC_v10, system4_HYBRID_v10) entered Asian Handicap and Moneyline markets, targeting Fiorentina 0 and Fiorentina. Average expected value was 17.7%, with a combined stake of $3938. The sharpest edge was on Fiorentina 0 (Asian Handicap): OddsFlow calculated 79.7% probability versus the market's implied 54.8% — a 24.9 percentage point gap at odds of 1.825. **Result:** 0 of 6 trades won, netting $-1500.00. ### Wave 3 — Minute 30' (Score: 0-0) **Context:** Scoreless at 30'. 3 models (system4_HYBRID_v10, system4_MC_v10, system4_BLEND_v10) entered Moneyline and Asian Handicap markets, targeting Draw and Lecce +0.5. Average expected value was 17.2%, with a combined stake of $2500. The sharpest edge was on Lecce +0.5 (Asian Handicap): OddsFlow calculated 57.6% probability versus the market's implied 37.4% — a 20.2 percentage point gap at odds of 2.675. **Result:** All 5 trades won, netting +$5512.50. ### Wave 4 — Minute 35' (Score: 0-1) **Context:** Fiorentina leading 0-1 at 35'. J. Harrison scored moments ago. 2 models (system4_BLEND_v10, system4_MC_v10) entered Over/Under and Asian Handicap markets, targeting Over 1.5 and Lecce +1. Average expected value was 15.2%, with a combined stake of $2000. The sharpest edge was on Over 1.5 (Over/Under): OddsFlow calculated 70.0% probability versus the market's implied 52.4% — a 17.6 percentage point gap at odds of 1.909. **Result:** All 4 trades won, netting +$1637.50. ### Wave 5 — Minute 41' (Score: 0-1) **Context:** Fiorentina leading 0-1 at 41'. 2 models (system4_MC_v10, system4_BLEND_v10) entered Over/Under markets, targeting Under 2.5. Average expected value was 9.4%, with a combined stake of $1000. The sharpest edge was on Under 2.5 (Over/Under): OddsFlow calculated 64.7% probability versus the market's implied 57.9% — a 6.8 percentage point gap at odds of 1.727. **Result:** All 2 trades won, netting +$727.00. ### Wave 6 — Minute 66' (Score: 0-1) **Context:** Fiorentina leading 0-1 at 66'. 1 model (oddsflow_core_v8.1) entered Over/Under markets, targeting Under 2.5. Average expected value was 21.1%, with a combined stake of $500. The sharpest edge was on Under 2.5 (Over/Under): OddsFlow calculated 63.0% probability versus the market's implied 55.6% — a 7.4 percentage point gap at odds of 1.8. **Result:** All 1 trades won, netting +$400.00. ### Wave 7 — Minute 76' (Score: 1-1) **Context:** Level at 1-1 after Tiago Gabriel's equalizer at 71'. 1 model (system4_BLEND_v10) entered Moneyline markets, targeting Draw. Average expected value was 16.6%, with a combined stake of $500. The sharpest edge was on Draw (Moneyline): OddsFlow calculated 48.6% probability versus the market's implied 33.3% — a 15.3 percentage point gap at odds of 3. **Result:** All 1 trades won, netting +$1000.00.
Key Mispricing Moments
- **Minute 25'** — Asian Handicap Fiorentina 0: AI saw 79.7% vs market's 54.8% (24.9pp gap). did not convert, but edge was real. - **Minute 25'** — Asian Handicap Fiorentina 0: AI saw 79.5% vs market's 54.8% (24.8pp gap). did not convert, but edge was real. - **Minute 25'** — Asian Handicap Fiorentina 0: AI saw 79.0% vs market's 54.8% (24.2pp gap). did not convert, but edge was real. - **Minute 30'** — Asian Handicap Lecce +0.5: AI saw 57.6% vs market's 37.4% (20.2pp gap). correctly identified. - **Minute 15'** — Asian Handicap Fiorentina 0: AI saw 79.0% vs market's 58.8% (20.1pp gap). did not convert, but edge was real.
Model Performance
- **system4_MC_v10**: 7 trades, 5W/1L/1V, +$2946.50 (ROI: +77.5%) - **system4_BLEND_v10**: 7 trades, 5W/1L/1V, +$2593.00 (ROI: +67.9%) - **system4_HYBRID_v10**: 4 trades, 2W/1L/1V, +$1837.50 (ROI: +79.2%) - **oddsflow_core_v8.1**: 2 trades, 1W/0L/1V, +$400.00 (ROI: +57.1%)
Match Statistics
Possession was 55%–45% in Lecce's favor. Lecce had 14 shots (4 on target) versus Fiorentina's 5 (3 on target). Expected goals: Lecce 1.46 — Fiorentina 1.25. Corners: 5-1.
Verdict
A highly profitable match for OddsFlow. The AI models identified significant mispricings and converted them efficiently, returning +73.1% ROI. Top performer: system4_MC_v10 at +$2946.50.
What the closing market expected
The prices bookmakers settled on before kick-off, with the margin removed, next to what actually happened.
| Market | Line | Implied probability |
|---|---|---|
| 1X2 (home / draw / away) | Favourite: Away | 28.0% / 29.3% / 45.5% |
| Asian handicap | +0.25 | 52.9% |
| Over / Under | 2.25 | 50.5% |
Probabilities are de-vigged, so they describe the market's view rather than the price you would have been offered.
Underestimation of Lecce (+0.25 HDP).
The match between Lecce and Fiorentina concluded in a 1-1 draw. In the 1x2 market, Fiorentina was the implied favorite with a 45.45% win probability, while the draw held a 29.33% chance. The actual draw indicates reasonable efficiency for the 1x2 market. On the Asian Handicap, the line was set at 0.25, with Fiorentina (-0.25) having a 52.91% probability to cover. However, the 1-1 draw meant a half-win for backers of Lecce (+0.25), directly contradicting the market's slight lean towards Fiorentina covering. The Goals Over/Under market, with a line of 2.25, showed a slight preference for the Under (51.81%). With only 2 total goals scored, the Under was a winning bet, confirming the market's lean but potentially offering an EV+ signal for sharper bettors. The most significant market inefficiency identified was the undervaluation of Lecce on the +0.25 Asian Handicap.
A highly profitable match for OddsFlow. The AI models identified significant mispricings and converted them efficiently, returning +73.1% ROI on 20 trades. Top performer: HDP Sniper at +$2946.50.
See AI signals as they happen
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