Lazio2 - 1Pisa
LazioWhy did AI enter 4 times at 0', 13', 35', 54' — and still finish +$912?
Match Overview
Lazio hosted Pisa in the Serie A, finishing 2-1. Goals: S. Moreo (23'), F. Dele-Bashiru (33'), Pedro (35'). OddsFlow deployed 20 trades across 4 waves, achieving 60% precision with a net result of +$911.74 (ROI: +51.7%).
Pre-Match Odds
The Asian Handicap line moved from -1 to -0.75; the Over/Under line shifted from 2.75 to 2.5; the home moneyline drifted out from 1.52 to 1.74.
Trade Wave Analysis
### Wave 1 — Minute 0' (Score: 0-0) **Context:** Scoreless at 0'. 1 model (S5.1_Pre) entered Asian Handicap markets, targeting Lazio -0.75. Average expected value was 12.8%, with a combined stake of $10. The sharpest edge was on Lazio -0.75 (Asian Handicap): OddsFlow calculated 57.5% probability versus the market's implied 51.0% — a 6.5 percentage point gap at odds of 1.96. **Result:** All 1 trades won, netting +$4.80. ### Wave 2 — Minute 13' (Score: 0-0) **Context:** Scoreless at 13'. 1 model (oddsflow_core_v8.1) entered Asian Handicap markets, targeting Pisa -1 and Pisa -0.5. Average expected value was 14.6%, with a combined stake of $200. The sharpest edge was on Pisa -1 (Asian Handicap): OddsFlow calculated 75.0% probability versus the market's implied 58.8% — a 16.1 percentage point gap at odds of 1.7. **Result:** 0 of 2 trades won, netting $-94.00. ### Wave 3 — Minute 35' (Score: 1-1) **Context:** Level at 1-1 after Pedro's equalizer at 35'. 2 models (system4_BLEND_v10, system4_MC_v10) entered Asian Handicap and Over/Under markets, targeting Pisa -0.5 and Under 3.5 and Pisa -1.5 and Under 4.5 and Pisa -1. Average expected value was 24.2%, with a combined stake of $1137. The sharpest edge was on Pisa -1 (Asian Handicap): OddsFlow calculated 90.7% probability versus the market's implied 36.4% — a 54.3 percentage point gap at odds of 2.75. **Result:** 7 of 13 trades won, netting +$606.30. ### Wave 4 — Minute 54' (Score: 2-1) **Context:** Lazio leading 2-1 at 54'. 1 model (system4_HYBRID_v10) entered Over/Under and Asian Handicap markets, targeting Under 4.5 and Under 4.25 and Pisa -1. Average expected value was 38.4%, with a combined stake of $417. The sharpest edge was on Pisa -1 (Asian Handicap): OddsFlow calculated 94.1% probability versus the market's implied 41.2% — a 52.9 percentage point gap at odds of 2.425. **Result:** All 4 trades won, netting +$394.64.
Key Mispricing Moments
- **Minute 38'** — Asian Handicap Pisa -1: AI saw 90.7% vs market's 36.4% (54.3pp gap). correctly identified. - **Minute 38'** — Asian Handicap Pisa -1: AI saw 90.3% vs market's 36.4% (54.0pp gap). correctly identified. - **Minute 54'** — Asian Handicap Pisa -1: AI saw 94.1% vs market's 41.2% (52.9pp gap). correctly identified. - **Minute 36'** — Asian Handicap Pisa -1.5: AI saw 89.8% vs market's 53.3% (36.4pp gap). correctly identified. - **Minute 36'** — Asian Handicap Pisa -1.5: AI saw 90.1% vs market's 54.1% (36.0pp gap). correctly identified.
Model Performance
- **system4_HYBRID_v10**: 4 trades, 4W/0L, +$394.64 (ROI: +94.6%) - **system4_MC_v10**: 7 trades, 4W/3L, +$350.50 (ROI: +58.7%) - **system4_BLEND_v10**: 6 trades, 3W/3L, +$255.80 (ROI: +47.4%) - **S5.1_Pre**: 1 trades, 0W/0L/1V, +$4.80 (ROI: +48.0%) - **oddsflow_core_v8.1**: 2 trades, 0W/1L/1V, $-94.00 (ROI: -47.0%)
Match Statistics
Possession was 49–51 in Lazio's deficit. Lazio had 13 shots (9 on target) versus Pisa's 8 (2 on target). Expected goals: Lazio 0.88 — Pisa 1.55. Corners: 4-1.
Verdict
A highly profitable match for OddsFlow. The AI models identified significant mispricings and converted them efficiently, returning +51.7% ROI. Top performer: system4_HYBRID_v10 at +$394.64.
What the closing market expected
The prices bookmakers settled on before kick-off, with the margin removed, next to what actually happened.
| Market | Line | Implied probability |
|---|---|---|
| 1X2 (home / draw / away) | Favourite: Home | 57.5% / 25.3% / 20.4% |
| Asian handicap | -0.75 | 51.0% |
| Over / Under | 2.5 | 52.1% |
Probabilities are de-vigged, so they describe the market's view rather than the price you would have been offered.
The market overestimated Lazio's winning margin on the Asian Handicap.
The match between Lazio and Pisa concluded with a 2-1 victory for Lazio. In the 1x2 market, the pre-match odds accurately reflected Lazio as the favorite with a 57.47% implied win probability, which materialized with their home win. The Goals Over/Under 2.5 market also proved efficient, with the 'Over' at 52.08% probability hitting as the game saw 3 total goals. However, the most notable market inefficiency emerged in the Asian Handicap market. Lazio was priced to cover a -0.75 line with a 51.02% probability. Despite Lazio's 2-1 win, they only achieved a half-win on the -0.75 handicap, indicating the market slightly overestimated their winning margin against Pisa. This suggests potential Closing Line Value for those who faded Lazio on the handicap.
A highly profitable match for OddsFlow. The AI models identified significant mispricings and converted them efficiently, returning +51.7% ROI on 20 trades. Top performer: Oddsflow Beta at +$394.64.
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