Lazio3 - 2Genoa
LazioWhat went wrong? 1 trades, $-140 — the AI's post-mortem.
Match Overview
Lazio hosted Genoa in the Serie A, finishing 3-2. Goals: Pedro (56' pen), K. Taylor (62'), R. Malinovskyi (66' pen), R. Malinovskyi (67' pen), Vitinha (75'), D. Cataldi (90' pen). OddsFlow deployed 1 trades across 1 wave, achieving 0% precision with a net result of $-139.75 (ROI: -100.0%).
Pre-Match Odds
The Asian Handicap line moved from -0.5 to -0.25; the Over/Under line shifted from 2 to 1.75; the home moneyline drifted out from 1.87 to 2.17.
Trade Wave Analysis
### Wave 1 — Minute 31' (Score: 0-0) **Context:** Scoreless at 31'. 1 model (oddsflow_core_v8.1) entered Asian Handicap markets, targeting Genoa 0. Average expected value was 6.4%, with a combined stake of $140. The sharpest edge was on Genoa 0 (Asian Handicap): OddsFlow calculated 52.9% probability versus the market's implied 46.5% — a 6.4 percentage point gap at odds of 2.15. **Result:** All 1 trades lost, netting $-139.75.
Model Performance
- **oddsflow_core_v8.1**: 1 trades, 0W/1L, $-139.75 (ROI: -100.0%)
Match Statistics
Possession was 56%–44% in Lazio's favor. Lazio had 13 shots (3 on target) versus Genoa's 16 (4 on target). Expected goals: Lazio 1.22 — Genoa 1.58. Corners: 5-3.
Verdict
A tough session at -100.0% ROI. The market moved against OddsFlow's positions, though the underlying probability assessments may still prove correct over a larger sample.
What the closing market expected
The prices bookmakers settled on before kick-off, with the margin removed, next to what actually happened.
| Market | Line | Implied probability |
|---|---|---|
| 1X2 (home / draw / away) | Favourite: Home | 46.1% / 33.4% / 23.4% |
| Asian handicap | -0.25 | 54.6% |
| Over / Under | 1.75 | 55.3% |
Probabilities are de-vigged, so they describe the market's view rather than the price you would have been offered.
The Totals (Over/Under) market severely underestimated the goal count.
The match between Lazio and Genoa concluded with a 3-2 victory for Lazio, resulting in a total of 5 goals. In the 1x2 market, Lazio was correctly identified as the market favorite with a 46.08% win probability, aligning with the actual outcome. The Handicap market, set at Lazio -0.25, also proved efficient as Lazio successfully covered the spread with their 1-goal winning margin, fulfilling the 54.64% probability of the favorite covering. However, the most striking inefficiency was observed in the Totals (Over/Under) market. Despite a slight lean towards Over with a 55.25% probability, the closing line of 1.75 goals was a severe underestimation. The actual total of 5 goals far exceeded this line, indicating a significant oversight by the market regarding the game's offensive potential. This represents a clear Value Signal for the Over.
A tough session at -100.0% ROI. The market moved against OddsFlow's positions.
See AI signals as they happen
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