Lazio0 - 2Atalanta
Lazio1 trades, 100% precision — how did AI read this match?
Match Overview
Lazio hosted Atalanta in the Serie A, finishing 0-2. Goals: Ederson (41' pen), N. Zalewski (60'). OddsFlow deployed 1 trades across 1 wave, achieving 100% precision with a net result of +$785.39 (ROI: +130.0%).
Pre-Match Odds
The Asian Handicap held at 0.25 but home odds shifted from 1.91 to 2.06; the home moneyline drifted out from 3.33 to 3.71.
Trade Wave Analysis
### Wave 1 — Minute 25' (Score: 0-0) **Context:** Scoreless at 25'. 1 model (oddsflow_core_v8.1) entered Moneyline markets, targeting Atalanta. Average expected value was 6.3%, with a combined stake of $604. **Result:** All 1 trades won, netting +$785.39.
Model Performance
- **oddsflow_core_v8.1**: 1 trades, 1W/0L, +$785.39 (ROI: +130.0%)
Match Statistics
Possession was 49%–51% in Lazio's deficit. Lazio had 17 shots (5 on target) versus Atalanta's 11 (5 on target). Expected goals: Lazio 0.92 — Atalanta 1.53. Corners: 5-4.
Verdict
A highly profitable match for OddsFlow. The AI models identified significant mispricings and converted them efficiently, returning +130.0% ROI.
What the closing market expected
The prices bookmakers settled on before kick-off, with the margin removed, next to what actually happened.
| Market | Line | Implied probability |
|---|---|---|
| 1X2 (home / draw / away) | Favourite: Away | 26.9% / 30.0% / 45.7% |
| Asian handicap | +0.25 | 53.2% |
| Over / Under | 2.25 | 54.4% |
Probabilities are de-vigged, so they describe the market's view rather than the price you would have been offered.
Over/Under 2.25 was mispriced; significant value on Under.
In the Serie A clash between Lazio and Atalanta, ending 0-2, the market demonstrated mixed efficiency. The 1X2 market correctly identified Atalanta as the market favorite with a 45.66% implied probability, which aligned with their 2-0 victory. On the Asian Handicap, Atalanta (-0.25) was also correctly favored to cover, succeeding with a 2-goal margin. However, the most notable inefficiency occurred in the Totals market. Despite the closing line setting the Over/Under at 2.25 goals with a market lean towards Over (54.35% implied probability), the match concluded with only 2 goals. This outcome represents a significant value signal for Under 2.25 Goals, indicating that the bookmakers overestimated the likelihood of a higher-scoring affair, creating a clear EV+ opportunity for those betting on the Under.
A highly profitable match for OddsFlow. The AI models identified significant mispricings and converted them efficiently, returning +130.0% ROI on 1 trades.
See AI signals as they happen
This report shows settled results. Get real-time AI signals during live matches.