Lazio

1 - 0

AC Milan

Lazio hosted AC Milan in the Serie A, finishing 1-0. Goals: G. Isaksen (26'), G. Isaksen (27'). Lazio received a red card (M. Sarri, 90'). OddsFlow deployed 10 trades across 5 waves, achieving 40% precision with a net result of +$95.09 (ROI: +1.4%).

The Asian Handicap held at 0.5 but home odds shifted from 1.85 to 1.98; the Over/Under stayed at 2.25 with Over odds moving from 1.95 to 1.9; the home moneyline drifted out from 3.92 to 4.48.

### Wave 1 — Minute 26' (Score: 0-0) **Context:** Scoreless at 26'. 1 model (system4_BLEND_v10) entered Asian Handicap and Moneyline markets, targeting AC Milan +0.5 and AC Milan and AC Milan 0. Average expected value was 21.6%, with a combined stake of $1638. The sharpest edge was on AC Milan 0 (Asian Handicap): OddsFlow calculated 88.6% probability versus the market's implied 40.0% — a 48.6 percentage point gap at odds of 2.5. **Result:** All 3 trades lost, netting $-1638.00. ### Wave 2 — Minute 29' (Score: 1-0) **Context:** Lazio leading 1-0 at 29'. G. Isaksen scored moments ago. 1 model (system4_MC_v10) entered Asian Handicap markets, targeting AC Milan +0.5 and AC Milan 0. Average expected value was 31.0%, with a combined stake of $1441. The sharpest edge was on AC Milan 0 (Asian Handicap): OddsFlow calculated 91.3% probability versus the market's implied 42.1% — a 49.2 percentage point gap at odds of 2.375. **Result:** 0 of 2 trades won, netting $-500.00. ### Wave 3 — Minute 38' (Score: 1-0) **Context:** Lazio leading 1-0 at 38'. 2 models (system4_MC_v10, system4_BLEND_v10) entered Asian Handicap markets, targeting AC Milan -0.5. Average expected value was 38.7%, with a combined stake of $1326. The sharpest edge was on AC Milan -0.5 (Asian Handicap): OddsFlow calculated 90.1% probability versus the market's implied 53.3% — a 36.8 percentage point gap at odds of 1.875. **Result:** All 2 trades won, netting +$1160.25. ### Wave 4 — Minute 46' (Score: 1-0) **Context:** Lazio leading 1-0 at 46'. 1 model (system4_MC_v10) entered Asian Handicap markets, targeting AC Milan +1. Average expected value was 12.6%, with a combined stake of $500. The sharpest edge was on AC Milan +1 (Asian Handicap): OddsFlow calculated 47.8% probability versus the market's implied 37.4% — a 10.4 percentage point gap at odds of 2.675. **Result:** All 1 trades lost, netting $-500.00. ### Wave 5 — Minute 70' (Score: 1-0) **Context:** Lazio leading 1-0 at 70'. AC Milan made 4 substitutions. 1 model (system4_HYBRID_v10) entered Moneyline and Asian Handicap markets, targeting Lazio and AC Milan -0.5. Average expected value was 31.5%, with a combined stake of $1683. The sharpest edge was on AC Milan -0.5 (Asian Handicap): OddsFlow calculated 81.4% probability versus the market's implied 42.1% — a 39.3 percentage point gap at odds of 2.375. **Result:** All 2 trades won, netting +$1572.84.

- **Minute 29'** — Asian Handicap AC Milan 0: AI saw 91.3% vs market's 42.1% (49.2pp gap). did not convert, but edge was real. - **Minute 26'** — Asian Handicap AC Milan 0: AI saw 88.6% vs market's 40.0% (48.6pp gap). did not convert, but edge was real. - **Minute 70'** — Asian Handicap AC Milan -0.5: AI saw 81.4% vs market's 42.1% (39.3pp gap). correctly identified. - **Minute 38'** — Asian Handicap AC Milan -0.5: AI saw 90.1% vs market's 53.3% (36.8pp gap). correctly identified. - **Minute 38'** — Asian Handicap AC Milan -0.5: AI saw 89.8% vs market's 53.3% (36.5pp gap). correctly identified.

- **system4_HYBRID_v10**: 2 trades, 2W/0L, +$1572.84 (ROI: +93.5%) - **system4_MC_v10**: 4 trades, 1W/2L/1V, $-418.12 (ROI: -16.0%) - **system4_BLEND_v10**: 4 trades, 1W/3L, $-1059.62 (ROI: -46.1%)

Possession was 42%–58% in Lazio's deficit. Lazio had 7 shots (2 on target) versus AC Milan's 16 (3 on target). Expected goals: Lazio 0.41 — AC Milan 1.18. Corners: 1-9.