Juventus0 - 2Fiorentina
JuventusWhy did AI enter 6 times at 10', 34', 45', 51', 65', 70' — and still finish +$1842?
Match Overview
Juventus hosted Fiorentina in the Serie A, finishing 0-2. Goals: C. Ndour (34'), R. Mandragora (83'). Fiorentina received a red card (L. Ranieri, 72'). OddsFlow deployed 40 trades across 6 waves, achieving 70% precision with a net result of +$1842.24 (ROI: +54.2%).
Pre-Match Odds
The Asian Handicap line moved from -1.25 to -1.5.
Trade Wave Analysis
### Wave 1 — Minute 10' (Score: 0-0) **Context:** Scoreless at 10'. 1 model (oddsflow_core_v8.1) entered Asian Handicap markets, targeting Fiorentina -1. Average expected value was 22.9%, with a combined stake of $100. The sharpest edge was on Fiorentina -1 (Asian Handicap): OddsFlow calculated 63.9% probability versus the market's implied 43.5% — a 20.4 percentage point gap at odds of 2.3. **Result:** All 1 trades won, netting +$130.00. ### Wave 2 — Minute 34' (Score: 0-0) **Context:** Scoreless at 34'. 3 models (oddsflow_core_v8.1, system4_MC_v10, system4_BLEND_v10) entered Asian Handicap and Over/Under markets, targeting Juventus -0.5 and Under 3.5 and Under 3.25 and Under 3. Average expected value was 35.8%, with a combined stake of $860. The sharpest edge was on Under 3 (Over/Under): OddsFlow calculated 80.6% probability versus the market's implied 46.3% — a 34.3 percentage point gap at odds of 2.16. **Result:** 6 of 9 trades won, netting +$171.90. ### Wave 3 — Minute 45' (Score: 0-1) **Context:** Fiorentina leading 0-1 at 45'. 2 models (system4_MC_v10, system4_BLEND_v10) entered Over/Under markets, targeting Under 2.5. Average expected value was 25.4%, with a combined stake of $200. The sharpest edge was on Under 2.5 (Over/Under): OddsFlow calculated 63.5% probability versus the market's implied 40.0% — a 23.5 percentage point gap at odds of 2.5. **Result:** All 2 trades won, netting +$300.00. ### Wave 4 — Minute 51' (Score: 0-1) **Context:** Fiorentina leading 0-1 at 51'. 1 model (system4_HYBRID_v10) entered Over/Under and Asian Handicap markets, targeting Under 2.5 and Juventus -0.5. Average expected value was 16.1%, with a combined stake of $200. The sharpest edge was on Under 2.5 (Over/Under): OddsFlow calculated 67.2% probability versus the market's implied 45.5% — a 21.8 percentage point gap at odds of 2.2. **Result:** 1 of 2 trades won, netting +$20.00. ### Wave 5 — Minute 65' (Score: 0-1) **Context:** Fiorentina leading 0-1 at 65'. Fiorentina made 6 substitutions. 3 models (system4_HYBRID_v10, system4_MC_v10, system4_BLEND_v10) entered Moneyline markets, targeting Fiorentina. Average expected value was 46.2%, with a combined stake of $700. The sharpest edge was on Fiorentina (Moneyline): OddsFlow calculated 66.9% probability versus the market's implied 38.8% — a 28.1 percentage point gap at odds of 2.58. **Result:** All 9 trades won, netting +$1035.84. ### Wave 6 — Minute 70' (Score: 1-1) **Context:** Level at 1-1, 70'. 3 models (system4_BLEND_v10, system4_MC_v10, system4_HYBRID_v10) entered Moneyline and Asian Handicap markets, targeting Draw and Fiorentina -0.5 and Juventus +0.5. Average expected value was 35.9%, with a combined stake of $1341. The sharpest edge was on Fiorentina -0.5 (Asian Handicap): OddsFlow calculated 74.4% probability versus the market's implied 47.4% — a 27.0 percentage point gap at odds of 2.11. **Result:** 9 of 17 trades won, netting +$184.50.
Key Mispricing Moments
- **Minute 35'** — Over/Under Under 3: AI saw 80.6% vs market's 46.3% (34.3pp gap). correctly identified. - **Minute 35'** — Over/Under Under 3: AI saw 79.6% vs market's 46.3% (33.3pp gap). correctly identified. - **Minute 65'** — Moneyline Fiorentina: AI saw 66.9% vs market's 38.8% (28.1pp gap). correctly identified. - **Minute 65'** — Moneyline Fiorentina: AI saw 66.9% vs market's 39.5% (27.3pp gap). correctly identified. - **Minute 66'** — Moneyline Fiorentina: AI saw 67.9% vs market's 40.7% (27.3pp gap). correctly identified.
Model Performance
- **system4_MC_v10**: 13 trades, 10W/3L, +$768.61 (ROI: +68.6%) - **system4_BLEND_v10**: 13 trades, 10W/3L, +$719.14 (ROI: +68.2%) - **system4_HYBRID_v10**: 12 trades, 7W/5L, +$324.50 (ROI: +31.7%) - **oddsflow_core_v8.1**: 2 trades, 1W/1L, +$30.00 (ROI: +15.0%)
Match Statistics
Possession was 59–41 in Juventus's favor. Juventus had 24 shots (9 on target) versus Fiorentina's 10 (4 on target). Expected goals: Juventus 1.76 — Fiorentina 0.47. Corners: 6-1.
Verdict
A highly profitable match for OddsFlow. The AI models identified significant mispricings and converted them efficiently, returning +54.2% ROI. Top performer: system4_MC_v10 at +$768.61.
What the closing market expected
The prices bookmakers settled on before kick-off, with the margin removed, next to what actually happened.
| Market | Line | Implied probability |
|---|---|---|
| 1X2 (home / draw / away) | Favourite: Home | 75.8% / 17.9% / 10.4% |
| Asian handicap | -1.5 | 51.3% |
| Over / Under | 3 | 49.8% |
Probabilities are de-vigged, so they describe the market's view rather than the price you would have been offered.
Massive mispricing of Fiorentina's outright win in the 1x2 market.
The match between Juventus and Fiorentina concluded with a surprising 0-2 victory for Fiorentina. The 1x2 market exhibited a significant market inefficiency, heavily pricing Juventus for a win with a 75.76% probability. Fiorentina's outright victory at 10.45% implied probability represents substantial Closing Line Value (CLV) for discerning bettors. On the Asian Handicap market, Juventus was set at -1.5 with a 51.28% probability to cover. Fiorentina not only covered their +1.5 line but secured an outright win, highlighting the erroneous market sentiment. The Goals Over/Under market was more accurate, with the closing line at 3 goals and a slight lean towards the Under (53.19% probability). The actual 2 goals meant the Under ticket cashed, validating the market's read on goal expectancy to some extent, but not offsetting the profound misjudgment in the match outcome.
A highly profitable match for OddsFlow. The AI models identified significant mispricings and converted them efficiently, returning +54.2% ROI on 40 trades. Top performer: HDP Sniper at +$768.61.
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