Inter3 - 0Cagliari
InterWhy did AI enter 3 times at 25', 45', 53' — and still finish $-2230?
Match Overview
Inter hosted Cagliari in the Serie A, finishing 3-0. Goals: M. Thuram (52'), N. Barella (56'), P. Zielinski (90'). OddsFlow deployed 10 trades across 3 waves, achieving 40% precision with a net result of $-2229.50 (ROI: -38.5%).
Pre-Match Odds
The Asian Handicap held at -1.75 but home odds shifted from 1.84 to 1.95.
Trade Wave Analysis
### Wave 1 — Minute 25' (Score: 0-0) **Context:** Scoreless at 25'. 2 models (system4_BLEND_v10, system4_MC_v10) entered Asian Handicap and Moneyline markets, targeting Cagliari -1 and Draw. Average expected value was 24.3%, with a combined stake of $1803. The sharpest edge was on Cagliari -1 (Asian Handicap): OddsFlow calculated 75.3% probability versus the market's implied 43.5% — a 31.8 percentage point gap at odds of 2.3. **Result:** All 3 trades lost, netting $-1803.00. ### Wave 2 — Minute 45' (Score: 0-0) **Context:** Scoreless at 45'. 2 models (system4_HYBRID_v10, system4_BLEND_v10) entered Moneyline and Asian Handicap markets, targeting Draw and Cagliari -1. Average expected value was 15.3%, with a combined stake of $1884. The sharpest edge was on Cagliari -1 (Asian Handicap): OddsFlow calculated 82.7% probability versus the market's implied 51.9% — a 30.8 percentage point gap at odds of 1.925. **Result:** All 3 trades lost, netting $-1884.00. ### Wave 3 — Minute 53' (Score: 1-0) **Context:** Inter leading 1-0 at 53'. M. Thuram scored moments ago. 2 models (system4_MC_v10, system4_BLEND_v10) entered Over/Under and Moneyline markets, targeting Over 1.5 and Inter. Average expected value was 19.1%, with a combined stake of $2097. The sharpest edge was on Over 1.5 (Over/Under): OddsFlow calculated 70.0% probability versus the market's implied 52.4% — a 17.6 percentage point gap at odds of 1.909. **Result:** All 4 trades won, netting +$1457.50.
Key Mispricing Moments
- **Minute 25'** — Asian Handicap Cagliari -1: AI saw 75.3% vs market's 43.5% (31.8pp gap). did not convert, but edge was real. - **Minute 25'** — Asian Handicap Cagliari -1: AI saw 74.6% vs market's 43.5% (31.1pp gap). did not convert, but edge was real. - **Minute 45'** — Asian Handicap Cagliari -1: AI saw 82.7% vs market's 51.9% (30.8pp gap). did not convert, but edge was real. - **Minute 53'** — Over/Under Over 1.5: AI saw 70.0% vs market's 52.4% (17.6pp gap). correctly identified. - **Minute 53'** — Over/Under Over 1.5: AI saw 70.0% vs market's 52.4% (17.6pp gap). correctly identified.
Model Performance
- **system4_MC_v10**: 4 trades, 2W/2L, $-392.00 (ROI: -17.5%) - **system4_BLEND_v10**: 4 trades, 2W/2L, $-453.50 (ROI: -21.0%) - **system4_HYBRID_v10**: 2 trades, 0W/2L, $-1384.00 (ROI: -100.0%)
Match Statistics
Possession was 56%–44% in Inter's favor. Inter had 17 shots (4 on target) versus Cagliari's 9 (1 on target). Expected goals: Inter 2.12 — Cagliari 0.35. Corners: 4-8.
Verdict
A tough session at -38.5% ROI. The market moved against OddsFlow's positions, though the underlying probability assessments may still prove correct over a larger sample. Top performer: system4_MC_v10 at $-392.00.
What the closing market expected
The prices bookmakers settled on before kick-off, with the margin removed, next to what actually happened.
| Market | Line | Implied probability |
|---|---|---|
| 1X2 (home / draw / away) | Favourite: Home | 80.7% / 15.5% / 7.8% |
| Asian handicap | -1.75 | 51.3% |
| Over / Under | 3 | 50.5% |
Probabilities are de-vigged, so they describe the market's view rather than the price you would have been offered.
Market undervalued Inter -1.75 Asian Handicap.
Inter's dominant 3-0 victory over Cagliari highlighted a significant market inefficiency in the Asian Handicap. While the 1x2 market correctly identified Inter as heavy favorites with an 80.65% implied probability, the odds for Inter to cover the -1.75 spread (implied probability 51.28%) proved to be a strong value signal. The actual outcome saw Inter comfortably cover the line with a 3-goal margin, demonstrating that the market underestimated their winning prowess and margin. The Over/Under 3.0 goal line resulted in a push (3 goals scored), indicating reasonable accuracy from bookmakers on total goals, despite a slight lean towards the Under (52.36% implied probability). The key takeaway is the mispricing of the handicap, offering bettors significant Closing Line Value (CLV) on Inter.
A tough session at -38.5% ROI. The market moved against OddsFlow's positions. Top performer: HDP Sniper at $-392.00.
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