Inter

1 - 1

Atalanta

Inter hosted Atalanta in the Serie A, finishing 1-1. Goals: F. Esposito (26'), N. Krstovic (83'). OddsFlow deployed 12 trades across 5 waves, achieving 75% precision with a net result of +$7854.93 (ROI: +67.4%).

The Asian Handicap held at -1 but home odds shifted from 1.96 to 1.92; the Over/Under line shifted from 2.75 to 3.

### Wave 1 — Minute 32' (Score: 1-0) **Context:** Inter leading 1-0 at 32'. 2 models (system4_MC_v10, system4_BLEND_v10) entered Asian Handicap markets, targeting Atalanta -1.5. Average expected value was 42.6%, with a combined stake of $2303. The sharpest edge was on Atalanta -1.5 (Asian Handicap): OddsFlow calculated 92.9% probability versus the market's implied 51.9% — a 40.9 percentage point gap at odds of 1.925. **Result:** All 2 trades won, netting +$2130.28. ### Wave 2 — Minute 38' (Score: 1-0) **Context:** Inter leading 1-0 at 38'. 1 model (system4_HYBRID_v10) entered Asian Handicap markets, targeting Atalanta -1.5. Average expected value was 44.1%, with a combined stake of $1162. The sharpest edge was on Atalanta -1.5 (Asian Handicap): OddsFlow calculated 93.5% probability versus the market's implied 51.3% — a 42.2 percentage point gap at odds of 1.95. **Result:** All 1 trades won, netting +$1103.90. ### Wave 3 — Minute 46' (Score: 1-0) **Context:** Inter leading 1-0 at 46'. 3 models (system4_MC_v10, system4_BLEND_v10, system4_HYBRID_v10) entered Asian Handicap and Moneyline markets, targeting Atalanta -1 and Inter. Average expected value was 37.6%, with a combined stake of $5567. The sharpest edge was on Atalanta -1 (Asian Handicap): OddsFlow calculated 95.4% probability versus the market's implied 50.6% — a 44.7 percentage point gap at odds of 1.975. **Result:** 3 of 5 trades won, netting +$917.75. ### Wave 4 — Minute 66' (Score: 1-0) **Context:** Inter leading 1-0 at 66'. Atalanta made 4 substitutions. 1 model (system4_MC_v10) entered Moneyline markets, targeting Inter. Average expected value was 30.1%, with a combined stake of $1130. The sharpest edge was on Inter (Moneyline): OddsFlow calculated 80.7% probability versus the market's implied 60.0% — a 20.7 percentage point gap at odds of 1.666. **Result:** All 1 trades lost, netting $-1130.00. ### Wave 5 — Minute 83' (Score: 1-1) **Context:** Level at 1-1 after N. Krstovic's equalizer at 83'. 3 models (system4_BLEND_v10, system4_MC_v10, system4_HYBRID_v10) entered Moneyline markets, targeting Draw. Average expected value was 29.3%, with a combined stake of $1500. The sharpest edge was on Draw (Moneyline): OddsFlow calculated 59.7% probability versus the market's implied 23.1% — a 36.6 percentage point gap at odds of 4.333. **Result:** All 3 trades won, netting +$4833.00.

- **Minute 46'** — Asian Handicap Atalanta -1: AI saw 95.4% vs market's 50.6% (44.7pp gap). correctly identified. - **Minute 46'** — Asian Handicap Atalanta -1: AI saw 95.4% vs market's 51.3% (44.1pp gap). correctly identified. - **Minute 46'** — Asian Handicap Atalanta -1: AI saw 95.1% vs market's 51.3% (43.9pp gap). correctly identified. - **Minute 38'** — Asian Handicap Atalanta -1.5: AI saw 93.5% vs market's 51.3% (42.2pp gap). correctly identified. - **Minute 32'** — Asian Handicap Atalanta -1.5: AI saw 92.9% vs market's 51.9% (40.9pp gap). correctly identified.

- **system4_MC_v10**: 4 trades, 3W/1L, +$2745.15 (ROI: +68.9%) - **system4_BLEND_v10**: 4 trades, 3W/1L, +$2634.13 (ROI: +74.5%) - **system4_HYBRID_v10**: 4 trades, 3W/1L, +$2475.65 (ROI: +59.8%)

Possession was 58%–42% in Inter's favor. Inter had 16 shots (3 on target) versus Atalanta's 7 (3 on target). Expected goals: Inter 1.59 — Atalanta 1.08. Corners: 2-2.