Inter5 - 2AS Roma
InterWhy did AI enter 3 times at 25', 40', 47' — and still finish $-6529?
Match Overview
Inter hosted AS Roma in the Serie A, finishing 5-2. Goals: L. Martinez (1'), L. Martinez (2'), G. Mancini (40'), G. Mancini (41'), H. Calhanoglu (45'), L. Martinez (52'), M. Thuram (55'), N. Barella (63'), L. Pellegrini (70'). OddsFlow deployed 26 trades across 3 waves, achieving 35% precision with a net result of $-6528.88 (ROI: -42.1%).
Pre-Match Odds
The Asian Handicap held at -0.75 but home odds shifted from 1.82 to 1.86; the Over/Under stayed at 2.5 with Over odds moving from 1.92 to 2.
Trade Wave Analysis
### Wave 1 — Minute 25' (Score: 1-0) **Context:** Inter leading 1-0 at 25'. 3 models (system4_MC_v10, system4_BLEND_v10, system4_HYBRID_v10) entered Asian Handicap markets, targeting AS Roma -1.5. Average expected value was 32.1%, with a combined stake of $3473. The sharpest edge was on AS Roma -1.5 (Asian Handicap): OddsFlow calculated 82.5% probability versus the market's implied 51.9% — a 30.6 percentage point gap at odds of 1.925. **Result:** All 4 trades lost, netting $-3473.00. ### Wave 2 — Minute 40' (Score: 1-0) **Context:** Inter leading 1-0 at 40'. G. Mancini scored moments ago. 3 models (system4_MC_v10, system4_HYBRID_v10, system4_BLEND_v10) entered Asian Handicap and Over/Under and Moneyline markets, targeting AS Roma -1 and Over 2.5 and AS Roma -0.5 and Draw. Average expected value was 15.9%, with a combined stake of $9311. The sharpest edge was on AS Roma -1 (Asian Handicap): OddsFlow calculated 86.8% probability versus the market's implied 36.4% — a 50.4 percentage point gap at odds of 2.75. **Result:** 4 of 17 trades won, netting $-5783.88. ### Wave 3 — Minute 47' (Score: 2-1) **Context:** Inter leading 2-1 at 47'. null scored moments ago. 3 models (system4_HYBRID_v10, system4_MC_v10, system4_BLEND_v10) entered Over/Under and Moneyline markets, targeting Over 3.5 and Inter. Average expected value was 26.1%, with a combined stake of $2735. The sharpest edge was on Inter (Moneyline): OddsFlow calculated 79.3% probability versus the market's implied 54.6% — a 24.7 percentage point gap at odds of 1.833. **Result:** All 5 trades won, netting +$2728.00.
Key Mispricing Moments
- **Minute 40'** — Asian Handicap AS Roma -1: AI saw 86.8% vs market's 36.4% (50.4pp gap). did not convert, but edge was real. - **Minute 40'** — Asian Handicap AS Roma -1: AI saw 86.6% vs market's 36.4% (50.3pp gap). did not convert, but edge was real. - **Minute 40'** — Asian Handicap AS Roma -1: AI saw 86.6% vs market's 36.4% (50.2pp gap). did not convert, but edge was real. - **Minute 25'** — Asian Handicap AS Roma -1.5: AI saw 82.5% vs market's 51.9% (30.6pp gap). did not convert, but edge was real. - **Minute 25'** — Asian Handicap AS Roma -1.5: AI saw 82.2% vs market's 51.9% (30.3pp gap). did not convert, but edge was real.
Model Performance
- **system4_BLEND_v10**: 7 trades, 3W/4L, $-1103.93 (ROI: -25.7%) - **system4_HYBRID_v10**: 9 trades, 3W/6L, $-2249.92 (ROI: -43.7%) - **system4_MC_v10**: 10 trades, 3W/7L, $-3175.03 (ROI: -52.2%)
Match Statistics
Possession was 53%–47% in Inter's favor. Inter had 17 shots (9 on target) versus AS Roma's 10 (3 on target). Expected goals: Inter 1.17 — AS Roma 1.04. Corners: 7-4.
Verdict
A tough session at -42.1% ROI. The market moved against OddsFlow's positions, though the underlying probability assessments may still prove correct over a larger sample. Top performer: system4_BLEND_v10 at $-1103.93.
What the closing market expected
The prices bookmakers settled on before kick-off, with the margin removed, next to what actually happened.
| Market | Line | Implied probability |
|---|---|---|
| 1X2 (home / draw / away) | Favourite: Home | 59.9% / 25.1% / 18.7% |
| Asian handicap | -0.75 | 53.8% |
| Over / Under | 2.5 | 50.0% |
Probabilities are de-vigged, so they describe the market's view rather than the price you would have been offered.
Significant undervaluation of Over 2.5 Goals.
Inter secured a dominant 5-2 victory over AS Roma. The 1x2 market accurately priced Inter as the favorite, and the handicap of -0.75 for Inter also proved to be an efficient line as they easily covered. However, the most significant market inefficiency was observed in the Totals (Over/Under) market. With a closing line of 2.5 goals, the market implied probabilities were almost even, with a slight lean towards the Under (52.91% Under vs. 50% Over). The match ultimately produced 7 goals, resulting in a clear Over outcome. This demonstrates a strong Value Signal for Over 2.5 Goals, as bookmakers substantially underestimated the goal-scoring potential, presenting a clear EV+ opportunity.
A tough session at -42.1% ROI. The market moved against OddsFlow's positions. Top performer: Active Trader at $-1103.93.
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