Hellas Verona

0 - 2

Genoa

Hellas Verona hosted Genoa in the Serie A, finishing 0-2. Goals: Vitinha (61'), L. Ostigard (86'). OddsFlow deployed 12 trades across 3 waves, achieving 42% precision with a net result of $-63.50 (ROI: -1.0%).

The Asian Handicap held at 0.25 but home odds shifted from 1.83 to 1.84; the Over/Under stayed at 2 with Over odds moving from 1.94 to 2.

### Wave 1 — Minute 25' (Score: 0-0) **Context:** Scoreless at 25'. 2 models (system4_MC_v10, system4_BLEND_v10) entered Asian Handicap and Over/Under and Moneyline markets, targeting Hellas Verona 0 and Over 1.5 and Hellas Verona. Average expected value was 25.6%, with a combined stake of $3178. The sharpest edge was on Hellas Verona (Moneyline): OddsFlow calculated 64.0% probability versus the market's implied 26.7% — a 37.4 percentage point gap at odds of 3.75. **Result:** 2 of 6 trades won, netting $-822.00. ### Wave 2 — Minute 52' (Score: 0-0) **Context:** Scoreless at 52'. 2 models (system4_BLEND_v10, system4_MC_v10) entered Over/Under markets, targeting Over 0.5. Average expected value was 9.8%, with a combined stake of $1000. The sharpest edge was on Over 0.5 (Over/Under): OddsFlow calculated 70.0% probability versus the market's implied 63.7% — a 6.3 percentage point gap at odds of 1.571. **Result:** All 2 trades won, netting +$571.00. ### Wave 3 — Minute 61' (Score: 0-1) **Context:** Genoa leading 0-1 at 61'. Vitinha scored moments ago. 2 models (system4_BLEND_v10, system4_MC_v10) entered Asian Handicap and Moneyline markets, targeting Hellas Verona +1 and Draw and Genoa. Average expected value was 23.2%, with a combined stake of $2235. The sharpest edge was on Hellas Verona +1 (Asian Handicap): OddsFlow calculated 88.6% probability versus the market's implied 51.3% — a 37.3 percentage point gap at odds of 1.95. **Result:** 1 of 4 trades won, netting +$187.50.

- **Minute 25'** — Moneyline Hellas Verona: AI saw 64.0% vs market's 26.7% (37.4pp gap). did not convert, but edge was real. - **Minute 61'** — Asian Handicap Hellas Verona +1: AI saw 88.6% vs market's 51.3% (37.3pp gap). did not convert, but edge was real. - **Minute 61'** — Asian Handicap Hellas Verona +1: AI saw 88.3% vs market's 51.3% (37.0pp gap). did not convert, but edge was real. - **Minute 25'** — Asian Handicap Hellas Verona 0: AI saw 64.3% vs market's 42.6% (21.8pp gap). did not convert, but edge was real. - **Minute 25'** — Asian Handicap Hellas Verona 0: AI saw 64.0% vs market's 42.6% (21.5pp gap). did not convert, but edge was real.

- **system4_BLEND_v10**: 6 trades, 3W/2L/1V, +$563.00 (ROI: +17.5%) - **system4_MC_v10**: 6 trades, 2W/3L/1V, $-626.50 (ROI: -19.6%)

Possession was 42%–58% in Hellas Verona's deficit. Hellas Verona had 8 shots (1 on target) versus Genoa's 11 (3 on target). Expected goals: Hellas Verona 0.27 — Genoa 0.51. Corners: 4-2.