Hellas Verona0 - 1Fiorentina
Hellas VeronaWhy did AI enter 6 times at 25', 30', 34', 56', 63', 82' — and still finish $-482?
Match Overview
Hellas Verona hosted Fiorentina in the Serie A, finishing 0-1. Goals: N. Fagioli (82'). Fiorentina received a red card (A. Gudmundsson, 86'). OddsFlow deployed 19 trades across 6 waves, achieving 42% precision with a net result of $-481.80 (ROI: -4.7%).
Pre-Match Odds
The Asian Handicap held at 0.5 but home odds shifted from 1.9 to 1.86; the Over/Under line shifted from 2.25 to 2; the home moneyline drifted out from 4.07 to 4.2.
Trade Wave Analysis
### Wave 1 — Minute 25' (Score: 0-0) **Context:** Scoreless at 25'. 2 models (system4_MC_v10, system4_BLEND_v10) entered Moneyline and Asian Handicap markets, targeting Draw and Hellas Verona +0.5. Average expected value was 7.1%, with a combined stake of $2500. **Result:** All 5 trades lost, netting $-2500.00. ### Wave 2 — Minute 30' (Score: 0-0) **Context:** Scoreless at 30'. 1 model (system4_BLEND_v10) entered Moneyline markets, targeting Draw. Average expected value was 4.9%, with a combined stake of $500. **Result:** All 1 trades lost, netting $-500.00. ### Wave 3 — Minute 34' (Score: 0-0) **Context:** Scoreless at 34'. 1 model (system4_HYBRID_v10) entered Moneyline and Asian Handicap markets, targeting Draw and Hellas Verona +0.5. Average expected value was 9.1%, with a combined stake of $1000. The sharpest edge was on Hellas Verona +0.5 (Asian Handicap): OddsFlow calculated 65.2% probability versus the market's implied 58.8% — a 6.4 percentage point gap at odds of 1.7. **Result:** All 2 trades lost, netting $-1000.00. ### Wave 4 — Minute 56' (Score: 0-0) **Context:** Scoreless at 56'. 3 models (system4_HYBRID_v10, system4_BLEND_v10, system4_MC_v10) entered Over/Under markets, targeting Over 0.5. Average expected value was 8.0%, with a combined stake of $1500. **Result:** All 3 trades won, netting +$799.50. ### Wave 5 — Minute 63' (Score: 0-0) **Context:** Scoreless at 63'. 3 models (system4_HYBRID_v10, system4_BLEND_v10, system4_MC_v10) entered Asian Handicap markets, targeting Fiorentina 0. Average expected value was 25.1%, with a combined stake of $2241. The sharpest edge was on Fiorentina 0 (Asian Handicap): OddsFlow calculated 81.8% probability versus the market's implied 58.8% — a 23.0 percentage point gap at odds of 1.7. **Result:** All 3 trades won, netting +$1568.70. ### Wave 6 — Minute 82' (Score: 0-0) **Context:** Scoreless at 82'. 3 models (system4_HYBRID_v10, system4_BLEND_v10, system4_MC_v10) entered Asian Handicap and Moneyline markets, targeting Hellas Verona +1 and Fiorentina. Average expected value was 27.1%, with a combined stake of $2586. The sharpest edge was on Fiorentina (Moneyline): OddsFlow calculated 80.3% probability versus the market's implied 47.6% — a 32.7 percentage point gap at odds of 2.1. **Result:** 2 of 5 trades won, netting +$1150.00.
Key Mispricing Moments
- **Minute 83'** — Moneyline Fiorentina: AI saw 80.3% vs market's 47.6% (32.7pp gap). correctly identified. - **Minute 63'** — Asian Handicap Fiorentina 0: AI saw 81.8% vs market's 58.8% (23.0pp gap). correctly identified. - **Minute 82'** — Asian Handicap Hellas Verona +1: AI saw 80.8% vs market's 58.0% (22.9pp gap). did not convert, but edge was real. - **Minute 63'** — Asian Handicap Fiorentina 0: AI saw 81.7% vs market's 58.8% (22.8pp gap). correctly identified. - **Minute 63'** — Asian Handicap Fiorentina 0: AI saw 81.0% vs market's 58.8% (22.2pp gap). correctly identified.
Model Performance
- **system4_BLEND_v10**: 6 trades, 3W/2L/1V, +$497.90 (ROI: +14.3%) - **system4_HYBRID_v10**: 5 trades, 2W/2L/1V, $-272.20 (ROI: -10.2%) - **system4_MC_v10**: 8 trades, 3W/4L/1V, $-707.50 (ROI: -16.9%)
Match Statistics
Possession was 49%–51% in Hellas Verona's deficit. Hellas Verona had 20 shots (7 on target) versus Fiorentina's 5 (1 on target). Expected goals: Hellas Verona 1.29 — Fiorentina 0.36. Corners: 8-1.
Verdict
A marginally negative session at -4.7% ROI. The edge identification was sound but variance went against the positions. Top performer: system4_BLEND_v10 at +$497.90.
What the closing market expected
The prices bookmakers settled on before kick-off, with the margin removed, next to what actually happened.
| Market | Line | Implied probability |
|---|---|---|
| 1X2 (home / draw / away) | Favourite: Away | 23.8% / 30.6% / 48.5% |
| Asian handicap | +0.5 | 53.8% |
| Over / Under | 2 | 55.6% |
Probabilities are de-vigged, so they describe the market's view rather than the price you would have been offered.
The market significantly mispriced the Total Goals line, leaning heavily on Over 2 goals (55.56%) when the match ended with only 1 goal.
The Serie A fixture between Hellas Verona and Fiorentina concluded 0-1, resulting in an away win for Fiorentina. The 1x2 market correctly identified Fiorentina as the market favorite with a 48.54% implied probability, which materialized with their victory. However, the Handicap market at -0.5 on Fiorentina (48.31% probability to cover) indicated a slight underestimation of their ability to win by a margin, as they did cover. The most glaring market inefficiency was observed in the Totals market (Over/Under 2 goals). The OddsFlow model showed the market heavily leaned towards the "Over" with a 55.56% implied probability. With only 1 goal scored in the match, the "Under" clearly hit, representing a significant mispricing and a strong value signal for bettors who faded the market sentiment.
A marginally negative session at -4.7% ROI. The edge identification was sound but variance went against the positions. Top performer: Active Trader at +$497.90.
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