Hellas Verona0 - 2AS Roma
Hellas Verona1 trades, 100% precision — how did AI read this match?
Match Overview
Hellas Verona hosted AS Roma in the Serie A, finishing 0-2. Goals: D. Malen (56'), S. El Shaarawy (90'). Hellas Verona received a red card (N. Valentini, 50'). OddsFlow deployed 1 trades across 1 wave, achieving 100% precision with a net result of +$8.50 (ROI: +85.0%).
Pre-Match Odds
The Asian Handicap line moved from 1.5 to 1.25; the Over/Under line shifted from 2.5 to 2.75; the home moneyline shortened from 10.12 to 9.39.
Trade Wave Analysis
### Wave 1 — Minute 0' (Score: 0-0) **Context:** Scoreless at 0'. 1 model (S5.1_Pre) entered Over/Under markets, targeting Under 2.75. Average expected value was 25.8%, with a combined stake of $10. The sharpest edge was on Under 2.75 (Over/Under): OddsFlow calculated 62.7% probability versus the market's implied 54.1% — a 8.7 percentage point gap at odds of 1.85. **Result:** All 1 trades won, netting +$8.50.
Model Performance
- **S5.1_Pre**: 1 trades, 1W/0L, +$8.50 (ROI: +85.0%)
Match Statistics
Possession was 32–68 in Hellas Verona's deficit. Hellas Verona had 8 shots (3 on target) versus AS Roma's 18 (6 on target). Expected goals: Hellas Verona 0.77 — AS Roma 3.04. Corners: 6-6.
Verdict
A highly profitable match for OddsFlow. The AI models identified significant mispricings and converted them efficiently, returning +85.0% ROI.
What the closing market expected
The prices bookmakers settled on before kick-off, with the margin removed, next to what actually happened.
| Market | Line | Implied probability |
|---|---|---|
| 1X2 (home / draw / away) | Favourite: Away | 10.7% / 19.9% / 73.0% |
| Asian handicap | +1.25 | 53.2% |
| Over / Under | 2.75 | 48.3% |
Probabilities are de-vigged, so they describe the market's view rather than the price you would have been offered.
The market displayed strong efficiency in pricing the Under 2.75 goals, leaving no significant value against the closing line.
AS Roma secured a 2-0 victory over Hellas Verona in their Serie A fixture. The 1x2 market efficiently priced AS Roma as the outright favorite with a 72.99% ML probability, a prediction that aligned perfectly with the final score. In the Handicap market, AS Roma successfully covered the -1.25 line by winning with a two-goal margin; the OddsFlow model assigned a 53.19% probability for this outcome, indicating strong market alignment. The most notable observation came from the Totals (Over/Under) market, where the match concluded with 2 goals, falling comfortably under the 2.75 line. The market, with a 54.05% ML probability for the Under, accurately anticipated this low-scoring affair. Overall, the market exhibited high efficiency across all key segments.
A highly profitable match for OddsFlow. The AI models identified significant mispricings and converted them efficiently, returning +85.0% ROI on 1 trades.
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