Hellas Verona0 - 1AC Milan
Hellas VeronaWhy did AI enter 5 times at 25', 37', 41', 55', 75' — and still finish +$282?
Match Overview
Hellas Verona hosted AC Milan in the Serie A, finishing 0-1. Goals: A. Rabiot (41'). OddsFlow deployed 14 trades across 5 waves, achieving 43% precision with a net result of +$281.56 (ROI: +3.6%).
Pre-Match Odds
The Asian Handicap line moved from 0.75 to 1; the Over/Under line shifted from 2.25 to 2.5; the home moneyline drifted out from 6.14 to 7.13.
Trade Wave Analysis
### Wave 1 — Minute 25' (Score: 0-0) **Context:** Scoreless at 25'. 2 models (system4_MC_v10, system4_BLEND_v10) entered Moneyline and Asian Handicap markets, targeting Draw and Hellas Verona +0.5 and AC Milan +1. Average expected value was 8.6%, with a combined stake of $2500. The sharpest edge was on AC Milan +1 (Asian Handicap): OddsFlow calculated 50.2% probability versus the market's implied 42.1% — a 8.1 percentage point gap at odds of 2.375. **Result:** 0 of 5 trades won, netting $-1500.00. ### Wave 2 — Minute 37' (Score: 0-0) **Context:** Scoreless at 37'. 1 model (system4_BLEND_v10) entered Moneyline markets, targeting Draw. Average expected value was 5.3%, with a combined stake of $500. The sharpest edge was on Draw (Moneyline): OddsFlow calculated 33.5% probability versus the market's implied 26.7% — a 6.8 percentage point gap at odds of 3.75. **Result:** All 1 trades lost, netting $-500.00. ### Wave 3 — Minute 41' (Score: 0-1) **Context:** AC Milan leading 0-1 at 41'. A. Rabiot scored moments ago. 2 models (system4_BLEND_v10, system4_MC_v10) entered Moneyline and Over/Under and Asian Handicap markets, targeting AC Milan and Over 1.5 and Hellas Verona +1.5. Average expected value was 24.8%, with a combined stake of $3816. The sharpest edge was on Hellas Verona +1.5 (Asian Handicap): OddsFlow calculated 89.4% probability versus the market's implied 53.3% — a 36.1 percentage point gap at odds of 1.875. **Result:** 4 of 6 trades won, netting +$1069.06. ### Wave 4 — Minute 55' (Score: 0-1) **Context:** AC Milan leading 0-1 at 55'. 1 model (system4_BLEND_v10) entered Asian Handicap markets, targeting Hellas Verona +1. Average expected value was 16.6%, with a combined stake of $500. The sharpest edge was on Hellas Verona +1 (Asian Handicap): OddsFlow calculated 69.2% probability versus the market's implied 54.8% — a 14.4 percentage point gap at odds of 1.825. **Result:** All 1 trades won, netting +$412.50. ### Wave 5 — Minute 75' (Score: 0-1) **Context:** AC Milan leading 0-1 at 75'. 1 model (system4_MC_v10) entered Asian Handicap markets, targeting Hellas Verona +1. Average expected value was 44.6%, with a combined stake of $500. The sharpest edge was on Hellas Verona +1 (Asian Handicap): OddsFlow calculated 80.8% probability versus the market's implied 38.5% — a 42.3 percentage point gap at odds of 2.6. **Result:** All 1 trades won, netting +$800.00.
Key Mispricing Moments
- **Minute 75'** — Asian Handicap Hellas Verona +1: AI saw 80.8% vs market's 38.5% (42.3pp gap). correctly identified. - **Minute 43'** — Asian Handicap Hellas Verona +1.5: AI saw 89.4% vs market's 53.3% (36.1pp gap). correctly identified. - **Minute 43'** — Asian Handicap Hellas Verona +1.5: AI saw 88.9% vs market's 53.3% (35.6pp gap). correctly identified. - **Minute 41'** — Moneyline AC Milan: AI saw 81.2% vs market's 61.9% (19.3pp gap). correctly identified. - **Minute 55'** — Asian Handicap Hellas Verona +1: AI saw 69.2% vs market's 54.8% (14.4pp gap). correctly identified.
Model Performance
- **system4_MC_v10**: 7 trades, 3W/3L/1V, +$412.69 (ROI: +10.2%) - **system4_BLEND_v10**: 7 trades, 3W/3L/1V, $-131.13 (ROI: -3.5%)
Match Statistics
Possession was 48%–52% in Hellas Verona's deficit. Hellas Verona had 12 shots (2 on target) versus AC Milan's 4 (2 on target). Expected goals: Hellas Verona 0.37 — AC Milan 0.67. Corners: 6-1.
Verdict
A positive result for OddsFlow with +3.6% ROI. The models found genuine edges though not all converted. Top performer: system4_MC_v10 at +$412.69.
What the closing market expected
The prices bookmakers settled on before kick-off, with the margin removed, next to what actually happened.
| Market | Line | Implied probability |
|---|---|---|
| 1X2 (home / draw / away) | Favourite: Away | 14.0% / 24.4% / 64.9% |
| Asian handicap | +1 | 51.5% |
| Over / Under | 2.5 | 49.3% |
Probabilities are de-vigged, so they describe the market's view rather than the price you would have been offered.
The market slightly overestimated AC Milan's ability to cover the -1 Asian Handicap.
AC Milan secured a narrow 1-0 victory against Hellas Verona. In the 1x2 market, AC Milan was rightly priced as the heavy favorite (64.94% implied probability), and their win confirmed this expectation. However, the Asian Handicap of -1 for AC Milan (51.55% probability to cover) proved inefficient. While AC Milan won, their 1-goal margin resulted in a push on the -1 line, indicating the market slightly overvalued their ability to win by two or more goals. The Totals (Over/Under 2.5 goals) market correctly leaned towards the Under (53.19% implied probability), as only one goal was scored.
A positive result with +3.6% ROI. The models found genuine edges, finishing at +$281.56. Top performer: HDP Sniper at +$412.69.
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