Genoa

0 - 2

Udinese

Genoa hosted Udinese in the Serie A, finishing 0-2. Goals: J. Ekkelenkamp (66'), K. Davis (90'). OddsFlow deployed 15 trades across 6 waves, achieving 53% precision with a net result of +$358.00 (ROI: +4.8%).

The Asian Handicap held at -0.25 but home odds shifted from 1.85 to 1.87.

### Wave 1 — Minute 25' (Score: 0-0) **Context:** Scoreless at 25'. 2 models (system4_MC_v10, system4_BLEND_v10) entered Over/Under and Asian Handicap and Moneyline markets, targeting Over 1.5 and Genoa -0.5 and Genoa. Average expected value was 12.8%, with a combined stake of $3000. The sharpest edge was on Over 1.5 (Over/Under): OddsFlow calculated 67.5% probability versus the market's implied 55.6% — a 12.0 percentage point gap at odds of 1.8. **Result:** 2 of 6 trades won, netting $-1200.00. ### Wave 2 — Minute 47' (Score: 0-0) **Context:** Scoreless at 47'. 2 models (system4_BLEND_v10, system4_MC_v10) entered Asian Handicap markets, targeting Udinese 0. Average expected value was 17.2%, with a combined stake of $1000. The sharpest edge was on Udinese 0 (Asian Handicap): OddsFlow calculated 51.4% probability versus the market's implied 36.4% — a 15.1 percentage point gap at odds of 2.75. **Result:** All 2 trades won, netting +$1712.50. ### Wave 3 — Minute 53' (Score: 0-0) **Context:** Scoreless at 53'. 2 models (system4_MC_v10, system4_BLEND_v10) entered Moneyline and Asian Handicap markets, targeting Draw and Udinese -0.5. Average expected value was 4.9%, with a combined stake of $1000. The sharpest edge was on Draw (Moneyline): OddsFlow calculated 38.4% probability versus the market's implied 33.3% — a 5.1 percentage point gap at odds of 3. **Result:** 1 of 2 trades won, netting $-87.50. ### Wave 4 — Minute 59' (Score: 0-0) **Context:** Scoreless at 59'. 2 models (system4_BLEND_v10, system4_MC_v10) entered Moneyline and Over/Under and Asian Handicap markets, targeting Draw and Over 0.5 and Udinese -0.5. Average expected value was 6.2%, with a combined stake of $1500. **Result:** 2 of 3 trades won, netting +$166.50. ### Wave 5 — Minute 63' (Score: 0-0) **Context:** Scoreless at 63'. 1 model (system4_BLEND_v10) entered Over/Under markets, targeting Over 0.5. Average expected value was 8.0%, with a combined stake of $500. **Result:** All 1 trades won, netting +$266.50. ### Wave 6 — Minute 67' (Score: 0-1) **Context:** Udinese leading 0-1 at 67'. J. Ekkelenkamp scored moments ago. 1 model (system4_MC_v10) entered Asian Handicap markets, targeting Genoa +0.5. Average expected value was 47.8%, with a combined stake of $500. The sharpest edge was on Genoa +0.5 (Asian Handicap): OddsFlow calculated 85.3% probability versus the market's implied 40.0% — a 45.3 percentage point gap at odds of 2.5. **Result:** All 1 trades lost, netting $-500.00.

- **Minute 67'** — Asian Handicap Genoa +0.5: AI saw 85.3% vs market's 40.0% (45.3pp gap). did not convert, but edge was real. - **Minute 47'** — Asian Handicap Udinese 0: AI saw 51.4% vs market's 36.4% (15.1pp gap). correctly identified. - **Minute 47'** — Asian Handicap Udinese 0: AI saw 52.3% vs market's 37.4% (14.9pp gap). correctly identified. - **Minute 25'** — Over/Under Over 1.5: AI saw 67.5% vs market's 55.6% (12.0pp gap). correctly identified. - **Minute 25'** — Over/Under Over 1.5: AI saw 67.5% vs market's 55.6% (12.0pp gap). correctly identified.

- **system4_BLEND_v10**: 7 trades, 4W/3L, +$416.50 (ROI: +11.9%) - **system4_MC_v10**: 8 trades, 4W/4L, $-58.50 (ROI: -1.5%)

Possession was 63%–37% in Genoa's favor. Genoa had 17 shots (2 on target) versus Udinese's 6 (4 on target). Expected goals: Genoa 1.31 — Udinese 0.78. Corners: 7-1.