Genoa3 - 0Torino
Genoa1 trades, 100% precision — how did AI read this match?
Match Overview
Genoa hosted Torino in the Serie A, finishing 3-0. Goals: B. Norton-Cuffy (21'), B. Norton-Cuffy (22'), C. Ekuban (40'), Junior Messias (83'). Torino received a red card (E. Ilkhan, 45'). OddsFlow deployed 1 trades across 1 wave, achieving 100% precision with a net result of +$170.00 (ROI: +85.0%).
Pre-Match Odds
The Asian Handicap held at -0.25 but home odds shifted from 2.02 to 2.01; the Over/Under line shifted from 2 to 2.25.
Trade Wave Analysis
### Wave 1 — Minute 15' (Score: 0-0) **Context:** Scoreless at 15'. 1 model (oddsflow_core_v8.1) entered Asian Handicap markets, targeting Genoa -0.25. Average expected value was 3.0%, with a combined stake of $200. **Result:** All 1 trades won, netting +$170.00.
Model Performance
- **oddsflow_core_v8.1**: 1 trades, 1W/0L, +$170.00 (ROI: +85.0%)
Match Statistics
Possession was 61%–39% in Genoa's favor. Genoa had 16 shots (5 on target) versus Torino's 6 (3 on target). Expected goals: Genoa 1.78 — Torino 0.54. Corners: 1-3.
Verdict
A highly profitable match for OddsFlow. The AI models identified significant mispricings and converted them efficiently, returning +85.0% ROI.
What the closing market expected
The prices bookmakers settled on before kick-off, with the margin removed, next to what actually happened.
| Market | Line | Implied probability |
|---|---|---|
| 1X2 (home / draw / away) | Favourite: Home | 41.8% / 32.9% / 27.9% |
| Asian handicap | -0.25 | 49.8% |
| Over / Under | 2.25 | 48.8% |
Probabilities are de-vigged, so they describe the market's view rather than the price you would have been offered.
The market significantly underestimated the total goals scored, creating strong EV+ on Over 2.25.
Genoa secured a commanding 3-0 victory over Torino. The 1x2 market initially projected Genoa as slight favorites (41.84% win probability), but the emphatic scoreline demonstrates a significant underestimation of Genoa's offensive prowess and defensive solidity. In the Asian Handicap market, Genoa closed at -0.25 with a 49.75% implied probability to cover. The 3-goal margin easily covered the spread, indicating Closing Line Value (CLV) for Genoa -0.25 bettors. The most glaring market inefficiency was observed in the Totals market, where the Over/Under 2.25 line closed with a strong lean towards the Under (53.76% implied probability). The actual 3 goals meant the Over 2.25 was a clear winner, representing a significant EV+ opportunity missed by the market. OddsFlow identified this mispricing, signaling a strong Value Bet on the Over.
A highly profitable match for OddsFlow. The AI models identified significant mispricings and converted them efficiently, returning +85.0% ROI on 1 trades.
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