Genoa2 - 1Sassuolo
GenoaWhy did AI enter 2 times at 25', 30' — and still finish +$3739?
Match Overview
Genoa hosted Sassuolo in the Serie A, finishing 2-1. Goals: R. Malinovskyi (18'), I. Kone (57'), C. Ekuban (84'). Genoa received a red card (M. E. Ellertsson, 45'). OddsFlow deployed 8 trades across 2 waves, achieving 75% precision with a net result of +$3738.75 (ROI: +72.9%).
Pre-Match Odds
The Asian Handicap held at -0.25 but home odds shifted from 1.84 to 1.88.
Trade Wave Analysis
### Wave 1 — Minute 25' (Score: 1-0) **Context:** Genoa leading 1-0 at 25'. 2 models (system4_BLEND_v10, system4_MC_v10) entered Asian Handicap and Moneyline markets, targeting Sassuolo -1 and Genoa. Average expected value was 22.7%, with a combined stake of $3130. The sharpest edge was on Sassuolo -1 (Asian Handicap): OddsFlow calculated 88.8% probability versus the market's implied 53.3% — a 35.4 percentage point gap at odds of 1.875. **Result:** All 4 trades won, netting +$2363.75. ### Wave 2 — Minute 30' (Score: 1-0) **Context:** Genoa leading 1-0 at 30'. 2 models (system4_BLEND_v10, system4_MC_v10) entered Over/Under and Asian Handicap markets, targeting Over 2.5 and Sassuolo 0. Average expected value was 22.0%, with a combined stake of $2000. The sharpest edge was on Sassuolo 0 (Asian Handicap): OddsFlow calculated 70.3% probability versus the market's implied 43.5% — a 26.8 percentage point gap at odds of 2.3. **Result:** 2 of 4 trades won, netting +$1375.00.
Key Mispricing Moments
- **Minute 25'** — Asian Handicap Sassuolo -1: AI saw 88.8% vs market's 53.3% (35.4pp gap). correctly identified. - **Minute 25'** — Asian Handicap Sassuolo -1: AI saw 88.4% vs market's 53.3% (35.0pp gap). correctly identified. - **Minute 30'** — Asian Handicap Sassuolo 0: AI saw 70.3% vs market's 43.5% (26.8pp gap). did not convert, but edge was real. - **Minute 30'** — Asian Handicap Sassuolo 0: AI saw 70.1% vs market's 43.5% (26.6pp gap). did not convert, but edge was real. - **Minute 30'** — Over/Under Over 2.5: AI saw 54.9% vs market's 42.1% (12.8pp gap). correctly identified.
Model Performance
- **system4_MC_v10**: 4 trades, 3W/0L/1V, +$1874.63 (ROI: +72.9%) - **system4_BLEND_v10**: 4 trades, 3W/0L/1V, +$1864.13 (ROI: +72.8%)
Match Statistics
Possession was 52%–48% in Genoa's favor. Genoa had 14 shots (7 on target) versus Sassuolo's 15 (6 on target). Expected goals: Genoa 1.2 — Sassuolo 1.29. Corners: 5-3.
Verdict
A highly profitable match for OddsFlow. The AI models identified significant mispricings and converted them efficiently, returning +72.9% ROI. Top performer: system4_MC_v10 at +$1874.63.
What the closing market expected
The prices bookmakers settled on before kick-off, with the margin removed, next to what actually happened.
| Market | Line | Implied probability |
|---|---|---|
| 1X2 (home / draw / away) | Favourite: Home | 45.5% / 30.4% / 27.0% |
| Asian handicap | -0.25 | 53.2% |
| Over / Under | 2.25 | 52.9% |
Probabilities are de-vigged, so they describe the market's view rather than the price you would have been offered.
The market demonstrated strong efficiency, accurately pricing the favorites across all major betting lines.
In the Serie A clash, Genoa secured a 2-1 victory over Sassuolo. The 1x2 market accurately priced Genoa as the favorite, with an implied win probability of 45.45%, validating the market's initial sentiment. On the Asian Handicap (-0.25), Genoa, with a 53.19% probability to cover, successfully did so with their one-goal margin. Furthermore, the Goals Over/Under market, closing at 2.25 with a 52.91% probability for the Over, correctly anticipated the three goals scored. This fixture showcased a highly efficient betting market, with outcomes consistently aligning with closing line expectations.
A highly profitable match for OddsFlow. The AI models identified significant mispricings and converted them efficiently, returning +72.9% ROI on 8 trades. Top performer: HDP Sniper at +$1874.63.
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