Genoa0 - 2Como
GenoaWhy did AI enter 4 times at 28', 44', 59', 68' — and still finish +$3469?
Match Overview
Genoa hosted Como in the Serie A, finishing 0-2. Goals: A. Douvikas (10'), A. Diao (68'). OddsFlow deployed 9 trades across 4 waves, achieving 78% precision with a net result of +$3469.35 (ROI: +66.5%).
Pre-Match Odds
The Asian Handicap held at 0.75 but home odds shifted from 1.86 to 1.91; the home moneyline drifted out from 4.5 to 4.88.
Trade Wave Analysis
### Wave 1 — Minute 28' (Score: 0-1) **Context:** Como leading 0-1 at 28'. 3 models (oddsflow_core_v8.1, system4_BLEND_v10, system4_MC_v10) entered Asian Handicap markets, targeting Genoa +1.5. Average expected value was 28.0%, with a combined stake of $1851. The sharpest edge was on Genoa +1.5 (Asian Handicap): OddsFlow calculated 80.5% probability versus the market's implied 54.1% — a 26.4 percentage point gap at odds of 1.85. **Result:** All 3 trades won, netting +$1573.35. ### Wave 2 — Minute 44' (Score: 0-1) **Context:** Como leading 0-1 at 44'. 2 models (system4_BLEND_v10, system4_MC_v10) entered Asian Handicap markets, targeting Genoa +1. Average expected value was 25.7%, with a combined stake of $1000. The sharpest edge was on Genoa +1 (Asian Handicap): OddsFlow calculated 60.1% probability versus the market's implied 36.4% — a 23.7 percentage point gap at odds of 2.75. **Result:** 0 of 2 trades won, netting +$0.00. ### Wave 3 — Minute 59' (Score: 0-1) **Context:** Como leading 0-1 at 59'. Como made 3 substitutions. 2 models (system4_BLEND_v10, system4_MC_v10) entered Over/Under markets, targeting Over 1.5. Average expected value was 8.0%, with a combined stake of $1000. **Result:** All 2 trades won, netting +$533.00. ### Wave 4 — Minute 68' (Score: 0-1) **Context:** Como leading 0-1 at 68'. A. Diao scored moments ago. 2 models (system4_MC_v10, system4_BLEND_v10) entered Over/Under markets, targeting Under 2.5. Average expected value was 36.3%, with a combined stake of $1363. The sharpest edge was on Under 2.5 (Over/Under): OddsFlow calculated 83.8% probability versus the market's implied 50.0% — a 33.8 percentage point gap at odds of 2. **Result:** All 2 trades won, netting +$1363.00.
Key Mispricing Moments
- **Minute 68'** — Over/Under Under 2.5: AI saw 83.8% vs market's 50.0% (33.8pp gap). correctly identified. - **Minute 68'** — Over/Under Under 2.5: AI saw 83.6% vs market's 50.0% (33.6pp gap). correctly identified. - **Minute 28'** — Asian Handicap Genoa +1.5: AI saw 80.5% vs market's 54.1% (26.4pp gap). correctly identified. - **Minute 28'** — Asian Handicap Genoa +1.5: AI saw 79.9% vs market's 54.1% (25.8pp gap). correctly identified. - **Minute 28'** — Asian Handicap Genoa +1.5: AI saw 79.6% vs market's 54.1% (25.5pp gap). correctly identified.
Model Performance
- **system4_MC_v10**: 4 trades, 3W/0L/1V, +$1658.80 (ROI: +65.9%) - **system4_BLEND_v10**: 4 trades, 3W/0L/1V, +$1640.55 (ROI: +65.7%) - **oddsflow_core_v8.1**: 1 trades, 1W/0L, +$170.00 (ROI: +85.0%)
Match Statistics
Genoa had 8 shots (1 on target) versus Como's 0 (0 on target).
Verdict
A highly profitable match for OddsFlow. The AI models identified significant mispricings and converted them efficiently, returning +66.5% ROI. Top performer: system4_MC_v10 at +$1658.80.
What the closing market expected
The prices bookmakers settled on before kick-off, with the margin removed, next to what actually happened.
| Market | Line | Implied probability |
|---|---|---|
| 1X2 (home / draw / away) | Favourite: Away | 20.5% / 26.3% / 56.8% |
| Asian handicap | +0.75 | 50.0% |
| Over / Under | 2.5 | 48.8% |
Probabilities are de-vigged, so they describe the market's view rather than the price you would have been offered.
The market significantly underestimated Como's winning margin on the -0.75 Asian Handicap.
The match between Genoa and Como concluded with a 0-2 away victory for Como. The 1x2 market accurately identified Como as the outright favorite with a 56.82% implied win probability, which materialized in the final score. However, the Asian Handicap market at -0.75 for Como showed a notable inefficiency. The market assigned a slightly higher probability (52.36%) to Genoa covering +0.75 compared to Como covering -0.75 (50%). Como’s dominant 2-goal victory comfortably covered the -0.75 line, indicating that the market significantly underestimated Como's winning margin. In the Totals market, the closing line was 2.5 goals. With only 2 goals scored, the Under 2.5 hit, aligning with the market’s slight lean towards the Under (54.05% implied probability). The primary market error was the mispricing of Como's ability to cover the handicap.
A highly profitable match for OddsFlow. The AI models identified significant mispricings and converted them efficiently, returning +66.5% ROI on 9 trades. Top performer: HDP Sniper at +$1658.80.
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