Genoa1 - 2AC Milan
GenoaWhy did AI enter 6 times at 0', 10', 46', 49', 70', 78' — and still finish $-264?
Match Overview
Genoa hosted AC Milan in the Serie A, finishing 1-2. Goals: C. Nkunku (50' pen), C. Nkunku (51' pen), Z. Athekame (81'), J. Vasquez (86'). OddsFlow deployed 20 trades across 6 waves, achieving 20% precision with a net result of $-264.40 (ROI: -13.4%).
Pre-Match Odds
The Asian Handicap held at 0.75 but home odds shifted from 1.81 to 1.97; the Over/Under stayed at 2.5 with Over odds moving from 1.93 to 2.05; the home moneyline drifted out from 4.4 to 5.3.
Trade Wave Analysis
### Wave 1 — Minute 0' (Score: 0-0) **Context:** Scoreless at 0'. 1 model (S5.1_Pre) entered Asian Handicap markets, targeting Genoa +0.75. Average expected value was 18.5%, with a combined stake of $32. The sharpest edge was on Genoa +0.75 (Asian Handicap): OddsFlow calculated 59.2% probability versus the market's implied 52.1% — a 7.1 percentage point gap at odds of 1.92. **Result:** All 2 trades lost, netting $-16.00. ### Wave 2 — Minute 10' (Score: 0-0) **Context:** Scoreless at 10'. 1 model (oddsflow_core_v8.1) entered Asian Handicap markets, targeting Genoa +0.5. Average expected value was 13.7%, with a combined stake of $100. The sharpest edge was on Genoa +0.5 (Asian Handicap): OddsFlow calculated 59.1% probability versus the market's implied 48.2% — a 10.9 percentage point gap at odds of 2.075. **Result:** All 1 trades lost, netting $-100.00. ### Wave 3 — Minute 46' (Score: 0-0) **Context:** Scoreless at 46'. 2 models (system4_MC_v10, system4_BLEND_v10) entered Moneyline and Asian Handicap and Over/Under markets, targeting Draw and Genoa +0.5 and Under 1.5. Average expected value was 11.8%, with a combined stake of $465. The sharpest edge was on Genoa +0.5 (Asian Handicap): OddsFlow calculated 67.7% probability versus the market's implied 58.8% — a 8.8 percentage point gap at odds of 1.7. **Result:** All 6 trades lost, netting $-465.00. ### Wave 4 — Minute 49' (Score: 0-0) **Context:** Scoreless at 49'. 2 models (system4_MC_v10, system4_BLEND_v10) entered Over/Under and Asian Handicap markets, targeting Under 1.5 and Genoa +1 and Under 2.5 and Under 2. Average expected value was 37.9%, with a combined stake of $800. The sharpest edge was on Genoa +1 (Asian Handicap): OddsFlow calculated 77.1% probability versus the market's implied 38.5% — a 38.7 percentage point gap at odds of 2.6. **Result:** 2 of 9 trades won, netting $-280.00. ### Wave 5 — Minute 70' (Score: 0-1) **Context:** AC Milan leading 0-1 at 70'. 1 model (oddsflow_core_v8.1) entered Over/Under markets, targeting Over 1.5. Average expected value was 25.8%, with a combined stake of $500. The sharpest edge was on Over 1.5 (Over/Under): OddsFlow calculated 60.0% probability versus the market's implied 50.0% — a 10.0 percentage point gap at odds of 2. **Result:** All 1 trades won, netting +$500.00. ### Wave 6 — Minute 78' (Score: 0-1) **Context:** AC Milan leading 0-1 at 78'. 1 model (oddsflow_core_v8.1) entered Asian Handicap markets, targeting Genoa +1. Average expected value was 36.8%, with a combined stake of $81. The sharpest edge was on Genoa +1 (Asian Handicap): OddsFlow calculated 80.3% probability versus the market's implied 45.5% — a 34.9 percentage point gap at odds of 2.2. **Result:** All 1 trades won, netting +$96.60.
Key Mispricing Moments
- **Minute 51'** — Asian Handicap Genoa +1: AI saw 77.1% vs market's 38.5% (38.7pp gap). correctly identified. - **Minute 51'** — Asian Handicap Genoa +1: AI saw 76.8% vs market's 38.5% (38.3pp gap). correctly identified. - **Minute 78'** — Asian Handicap Genoa +1: AI saw 80.3% vs market's 45.5% (34.9pp gap). correctly identified. - **Minute 51'** — Over/Under Under 2: AI saw 77.5% vs market's 48.8% (28.7pp gap). did not convert, but edge was real. - **Minute 51'** — Over/Under Under 2: AI saw 76.7% vs market's 48.8% (27.9pp gap). did not convert, but edge was real.
Model Performance
- **oddsflow_core_v8.1**: 3 trades, 2W/1L, +$496.60 (ROI: +73.0%) - **S5.1_Pre**: 2 trades, 0W/0L/2V, $-16.00 (ROI: -50.0%) - **system4_BLEND_v10**: 6 trades, 1W/5L, $-290.00 (ROI: -52.7%) - **system4_MC_v10**: 9 trades, 1W/8L, $-455.00 (ROI: -63.6%)
Match Statistics
Possession was 62–38 in Genoa's favor. Genoa had 11 shots (2 on target) versus AC Milan's 7 (5 on target). Expected goals: Genoa 1.35 — AC Milan 1.45. Corners: 4-4.
Verdict
A tough session at -13.4% ROI. The market moved against OddsFlow's positions, though the underlying probability assessments may still prove correct over a larger sample. Top performer: oddsflow_core_v8.1 at +$496.60.
What the closing market expected
The prices bookmakers settled on before kick-off, with the margin removed, next to what actually happened.
| Market | Line | Implied probability |
|---|---|---|
| 1X2 (home / draw / away) | Favourite: Away | 18.9% / 26.4% / 58.5% |
| Asian handicap | +0.75 | 51.8% |
| Over / Under | 2.5 | 48.8% |
Probabilities are de-vigged, so they describe the market's view rather than the price you would have been offered.
The market significantly mispriced the Over/Under 2.5 goals, leaning Under despite the game hitting Over.
The Serie A fixture between Genoa and AC Milan concluded 1-2, with AC Milan securing the victory. In the 1x2 market, AC Milan was correctly identified as the market favorite with an implied win probability of 58.48% (odds 1.71), which proved accurate. For the Asian Handicap market, the line was set at 0.75. AC Milan, closing at 51.81% probability to cover the -0.75 spread, partially covered with their 1-goal victory. The most significant market inefficiency emerged in the Totals (Over/Under) market. Despite the match ending with 3 goals (Over 2.5), the closing line showed a distinct market lean towards Under 2.5 goals with a 54.05% implied probability (odds 1.85), compared to Over's 48.78% (odds 2.05). This represents a clear EV+ signal for the Over market.
A tough session at -13.4% ROI. The market moved against OddsFlow's positions. Top performer: Oddsflow Core Strategy at +$496.60.
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