Fiorentina2 - 2Torino
Fiorentina1 trades, 100% precision — how did AI read this match?
Match Overview
Fiorentina hosted Torino in the Serie A, finishing 2-2. Goals: C. Casadei (26'), M. Solomon (51'), M. Kean (57'), G. Maripan (90'). OddsFlow deployed 1 trades across 1 wave, achieving 100% precision with a net result of +$300.00 (ROI: +100.0%).
Pre-Match Odds
The Asian Handicap line moved from -0.5 to -0.75; the Over/Under stayed at 2.5 with Over odds moving from 2.02 to 1.93; the home moneyline shortened from 1.86 to 1.69.
Trade Wave Analysis
### Wave 1 — Minute 47' (Score: 0-1) **Context:** Torino leading 0-1 at 47'. 1 model (oddsflow_core_v8.1) entered Over/Under markets, targeting Over 2.5. Average expected value was 3.3%, with a combined stake of $300. **Result:** All 1 trades won, netting +$300.00.
Model Performance
- **oddsflow_core_v8.1**: 1 trades, 1W/0L, +$300.00 (ROI: +100.0%)
Match Statistics
Possession was 55%–45% in Fiorentina's favor. Fiorentina had 20 shots (5 on target) versus Torino's 12 (4 on target). Expected goals: Fiorentina 1.55 — Torino 0.88. Corners: 9-4.
Verdict
A highly profitable match for OddsFlow. The AI models identified significant mispricings and converted them efficiently, returning +100.0% ROI.
What the closing market expected
The prices bookmakers settled on before kick-off, with the margin removed, next to what actually happened.
| Market | Line | Implied probability |
|---|---|---|
| 1X2 (home / draw / away) | Favourite: Home | 59.2% / 25.9% / 18.2% |
| Asian handicap | -0.75 | 52.6% |
| Over / Under | 2.5 | 51.8% |
Probabilities are de-vigged, so they describe the market's view rather than the price you would have been offered.
The significant undervaluation of the Draw in the 1x2 market.
The Serie A fixture between Fiorentina and Torino concluded in a 2-2 draw, a result that exposed significant market inefficiencies. In the 1x2 market, the OddsFlow AI model indicated that Fiorentina were strong favorites with a 59.17% win probability, while the draw was only priced at 25.91%. The actual outcome clearly demonstrated that the market critically undervalued the draw, creating substantial Closing Line Value (CLV) for bettors who identified this mispricing. On the handicap market, Fiorentina opened at -0.75 with a 52.63% chance to cover. The draw meant Fiorentina failed to cover, signaling a clear value opportunity on Torino +0.75. Furthermore, the Over/Under 2.5 goals line, with a slight lean towards the Over at 51.81%, proved to be a winning bet as the match produced 4 goals. This indicates that despite the slight market lean, the true probability of a higher-scoring game was likely still underestimated, suggesting further EV+ on the Over.
A highly profitable match for OddsFlow. The AI models identified significant mispricings and converted them efficiently, returning +100.0% ROI on 1 trades.
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