Fiorentina0 - 0Sassuolo
FiorentinaWhy did AI enter 6 times at 15', 25', 31', 37', 40', 55' — and still finish +$4608?
Match Overview
Fiorentina hosted Sassuolo in the Serie A, finishing 0-0. OddsFlow deployed 15 trades across 6 waves, achieving 60% precision with a net result of +$4608.00 (ROI: +64.0%).
Pre-Match Odds
The Asian Handicap held at -0.5 but home odds shifted from 1.97 to 2.03.
Trade Wave Analysis
### Wave 1 — Minute 15' (Score: 0-0) **Context:** Scoreless at 15'. 1 model (oddsflow_core_v8.1) entered Asian Handicap markets, targeting Sassuolo 0. Average expected value was 12.8%, with a combined stake of $200. The sharpest edge was on Sassuolo 0 (Asian Handicap): OddsFlow calculated 52.3% probability versus the market's implied 42.1% — a 10.2 percentage point gap at odds of 2.375. **Result:** 0 of 1 trades won, netting +$0.00. ### Wave 2 — Minute 25' (Score: 0-0) **Context:** Scoreless at 25'. 3 models (system4_MC_v10, system4_BLEND_v10, system4_HYBRID_v10) entered Asian Handicap and Over/Under and Moneyline markets, targeting Sassuolo 0 and Under 2.5 and Fiorentina. Average expected value was 10.4%, with a combined stake of $4000. The sharpest edge was on Sassuolo 0 (Asian Handicap): OddsFlow calculated 55.0% probability versus the market's implied 40.0% — a 15.0 percentage point gap at odds of 2.5. **Result:** 3 of 8 trades won, netting $-217.00. ### Wave 3 — Minute 31' (Score: 0-0) **Context:** Scoreless at 31'. 3 models (system4_BLEND_v10, system4_HYBRID_v10, system4_MC_v10) entered Over/Under markets, targeting Under 1.5. Average expected value was 8.2%, with a combined stake of $1500. The sharpest edge was on Under 1.5 (Over/Under): OddsFlow calculated 46.6% probability versus the market's implied 40.0% — a 6.6 percentage point gap at odds of 2.5. **Result:** All 3 trades won, netting +$2250.00. ### Wave 4 — Minute 37' (Score: 0-0) **Context:** Scoreless at 37'. 1 model (system4_HYBRID_v10) entered Moneyline markets, targeting Draw. Average expected value was 4.0%, with a combined stake of $500. **Result:** All 1 trades won, netting +$937.50. ### Wave 5 — Minute 40' (Score: 0-0) **Context:** Scoreless at 40'. 1 model (system4_MC_v10) entered Moneyline markets, targeting Draw. Average expected value was 5.3%, with a combined stake of $500. **Result:** All 1 trades won, netting +$937.50. ### Wave 6 — Minute 55' (Score: 0-0) **Context:** Scoreless at 55'. 1 model (system4_BLEND_v10) entered Moneyline markets, targeting Draw. Average expected value was 4.5%, with a combined stake of $500. **Result:** All 1 trades won, netting +$700.00.
Key Mispricing Moments
- **Minute 28'** — Asian Handicap Sassuolo 0: AI saw 55.0% vs market's 40.0% (15.0pp gap). did not convert, but edge was real. - **Minute 25'** — Asian Handicap Sassuolo 0: AI saw 54.5% vs market's 40.0% (14.5pp gap). did not convert, but edge was real. - **Minute 25'** — Asian Handicap Sassuolo 0: AI saw 53.9% vs market's 40.0% (13.9pp gap). did not convert, but edge was real. - **Minute 15'** — Asian Handicap Sassuolo 0: AI saw 52.3% vs market's 42.1% (10.2pp gap). did not convert, but edge was real.
Model Performance
- **system4_MC_v10**: 4 trades, 3W/0L/1V, +$1954.00 (ROI: +97.7%) - **system4_HYBRID_v10**: 5 trades, 3W/1L/1V, +$1437.50 (ROI: +57.5%) - **system4_BLEND_v10**: 5 trades, 3W/1L/1V, +$1216.50 (ROI: +48.7%) - **oddsflow_core_v8.1**: 1 trades, 0W/0L/1V, +$0.00 (ROI: +0.0%)
Match Statistics
Fiorentina had 21 shots (4 on target) versus Sassuolo's 0 (0 on target).
Verdict
A highly profitable match for OddsFlow. The AI models identified significant mispricings and converted them efficiently, returning +64.0% ROI. Top performer: system4_MC_v10 at +$1954.00.
What the closing market expected
The prices bookmakers settled on before kick-off, with the margin removed, next to what actually happened.
| Market | Line | Implied probability |
|---|---|---|
| 1X2 (home / draw / away) | Favourite: Home | 49.5% / 29.9% / 24.0% |
| Asian handicap | -0.5 | 49.3% |
| Over / Under | 2.5 | 52.1% |
Probabilities are de-vigged, so they describe the market's view rather than the price you would have been offered.
The Over/Under 2.5 goals market significantly mispriced the probability of a low-scoring affair.
The Serie A fixture between Fiorentina and Sassuolo concluded in a 0-0 draw. Our OddsFlow AI model identified a clear market inefficiency in the Totals (Over/Under 2.5 goals) market. The closing market implied a 52.08% probability for Over 2.5 goals, while the match ended goalless. This outcome delivered significant Closing Line Value (CLV) for bettors who backed Under 2.5 goals. The 1x2 market also underestimated the draw (29.85% implied probability), offering an EV+ signal for that outcome. Neither team covered the -0.5 handicap given the draw.
A highly profitable match for OddsFlow. The AI models identified significant mispricings and converted them efficiently, returning +64.0% ROI on 15 trades. Top performer: HDP Sniper at +$1954.00.
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