Fiorentina0 - 0Parma
FiorentinaWhy did AI enter 4 times at 45', 56', 60', 66' — and still finish $-322?
Match Overview
Fiorentina hosted Parma in the Serie A, finishing 0-0. OddsFlow deployed 5 trades across 4 waves, achieving 20% precision with a net result of $-321.52 (ROI: -19.8%).
Pre-Match Odds
The Asian Handicap held at -0.75 but home odds shifted from 1.92 to 2.02.
Trade Wave Analysis
### Wave 1 — Minute 45' (Score: 0-0) **Context:** Scoreless at 45'. 1 model (oddsflow_core_v8.1) entered Moneyline markets, targeting Fiorentina. Average expected value was 5.0%, with a combined stake of $522. **Result:** All 1 trades lost, netting $-521.52. ### Wave 2 — Minute 56' (Score: 0-0) **Context:** Scoreless at 56'. 1 model (active_trader_v8.1) entered Asian Handicap markets, targeting Fiorentina -0.25. Average expected value was 2.0%, with a combined stake of $200. **Result:** All 1 trades lost, netting $-100.00. ### Wave 3 — Minute 60' (Score: 0-0) **Context:** Scoreless at 60'. 1 model (handicap_sniper_v8.1) entered Asian Handicap markets, targeting Fiorentina -0.25. Average expected value was 2.6%, with a combined stake of $200. **Result:** All 1 trades lost, netting $-100.00. ### Wave 4 — Minute 66' (Score: 0-0) **Context:** Scoreless at 66'. 2 models (active_trader_v8.1, oddsflow_core_v8.1) entered Over/Under and Asian Handicap markets, targeting Under 1.5 and Fiorentina -0.25. Average expected value was 11.7%, with a combined stake of $700. The sharpest edge was on Under 1.5 (Over/Under): OddsFlow calculated 63.0% probability versus the market's implied 50.0% — a 13.0 percentage point gap at odds of 2. **Result:** 1 of 2 trades won, netting +$400.00.
Key Mispricing Moments
- **Minute 66'** — Over/Under Under 1.5: AI saw 63.0% vs market's 50.0% (13.0pp gap). correctly identified.
Model Performance
- **active_trader_v8.1**: 2 trades, 1W/0L/1V, +$400.00 (ROI: +57.1%) - **handicap_sniper_v8.1**: 1 trades, 0W/0L/1V, $-100.00 (ROI: -50.0%) - **oddsflow_core_v8.1**: 2 trades, 0W/1L/1V, $-621.52 (ROI: -86.1%)
Match Statistics
Possession was 57%–43% in Fiorentina's favor. Fiorentina had 12 shots (1 on target) versus Parma's 5 (0 on target). Expected goals: Fiorentina 1.3 — Parma 0.12. Corners: 7-0.
Verdict
A tough session at -19.8% ROI. The market moved against OddsFlow's positions, though the underlying probability assessments may still prove correct over a larger sample. Top performer: active_trader_v8.1 at +$400.00.
A tough session at -19.8% ROI. The market moved against OddsFlow's positions. Top performer: Active Trader at +$400.00.
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