Fiorentina1 - 0Lazio
FiorentinaHow did AI turn 17 trades into +$5025 profit?
Match Overview
Fiorentina hosted Lazio in the Serie A, finishing 1-0. Goals: R. Gosens (28'). OddsFlow deployed 17 trades across 1 wave, achieving 65% precision with a net result of +$5024.50 (ROI: +55.9%).
Pre-Match Odds
The Asian Handicap held at -0.25 but home odds shifted from 1.98 to 2.
Trade Wave Analysis
### Wave 1 — Minute 25' (Score: 0-0) **Context:** Scoreless at 25'. 3 models (system4_HYBRID_v10, system4_BLEND_v10, system4_MC_v10) entered Asian Handicap and Moneyline and Over/Under markets, targeting Fiorentina -0.5 and Fiorentina and Lazio 0 and Over 1.5 and Lazio -1 and Lazio -0.5. Average expected value was 17.5%, with a combined stake of $8996. The sharpest edge was on Lazio -1 (Asian Handicap): OddsFlow calculated 88.1% probability versus the market's implied 57.1% — a 30.9 percentage point gap at odds of 1.75. **Result:** 11 of 17 trades won, netting +$5024.50.
Key Mispricing Moments
- **Minute 30'** — Asian Handicap Lazio -1: AI saw 88.1% vs market's 57.1% (30.9pp gap). correctly identified. - **Minute 30'** — Asian Handicap Lazio -1: AI saw 87.8% vs market's 57.1% (30.7pp gap). correctly identified. - **Minute 30'** — Asian Handicap Lazio -1: AI saw 87.5% vs market's 57.1% (30.4pp gap). correctly identified. - **Minute 30'** — Asian Handicap Lazio -0.5: AI saw 66.4% vs market's 42.1% (24.3pp gap). correctly identified. - **Minute 30'** — Asian Handicap Lazio -0.5: AI saw 65.9% vs market's 42.1% (23.8pp gap). correctly identified.
Model Performance
- **system4_HYBRID_v10**: 6 trades, 4W/2L, +$1994.25 (ROI: +63.1%) - **system4_MC_v10**: 6 trades, 4W/2L, +$1989.75 (ROI: +63.1%) - **system4_BLEND_v10**: 5 trades, 3W/2L, +$1040.50 (ROI: +38.8%)
Match Statistics
Possession was 34%–66% in Fiorentina's deficit. Fiorentina had 7 shots (2 on target) versus Lazio's 12 (5 on target). Expected goals: Fiorentina 0.41 — Lazio 1.38. Corners: 3-6.
Verdict
A highly profitable match for OddsFlow. The AI models identified significant mispricings and converted them efficiently, returning +55.9% ROI. Top performer: system4_HYBRID_v10 at +$1994.25.
What the closing market expected
The prices bookmakers settled on before kick-off, with the margin removed, next to what actually happened.
| Market | Line | Implied probability |
|---|---|---|
| 1X2 (home / draw / away) | Favourite: Home | 42.5% / 31.4% / 28.8% |
| Asian handicap | -0.25 | 51.8% |
| Over / Under | 2.25 | 52.6% |
Probabilities are de-vigged, so they describe the market's view rather than the price you would have been offered.
The Totals (O/U 2.25) market heavily favored Over, while the match finished significantly Under.
The match between Fiorentina and Lazio concluded 1-0, with Fiorentina securing a narrow victory. Analyzing the 1x2 market, Fiorentina was the market favorite with an implied win probability of 42.55%, successfully converting that expectation into a win. On the Asian Handicap market at -0.25, Fiorentina also covered the spread, despite the market slightly favoring Lazio (+0.25) to cover (51.81% implied probability). However, the most significant market inefficiency was observed in the Totals market. The closing line was set at Over/Under 2.25 goals, with the market leaning towards the Over (52.63% implied probability). The final score of 1 goal meant the Under 2.25 comfortably landed, indicating a clear Value Signal for Under bettors who identified this mispricing by the bookmakers. This highlights a strong Closing Line Value (CLV) opportunity missed by the broader market.
A highly profitable match for OddsFlow. The AI models identified significant mispricings and converted them efficiently, returning +55.9% ROI on 17 trades. Top performer: Oddsflow Beta at +$1994.25.
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