Fiorentina1 - 1Inter
FiorentinaWhy did AI enter 3 times at 25', 29', 79' — and still finish +$4188?
Match Overview
Fiorentina hosted Inter in the Serie A, finishing 1-1. Goals: F. Esposito (1'), C. Ndour (77'). OddsFlow deployed 6 trades across 3 waves, achieving 100% precision with a net result of +$4187.63 (ROI: +91.5%).
Pre-Match Odds
The Asian Handicap held at 0.75 but home odds shifted from 2.04 to 2.1; the Over/Under stayed at 2.75 with Over odds moving from 2.02 to 1.95; the home moneyline drifted out from 4.69 to 5.35.
Trade Wave Analysis
### Wave 1 — Minute 25' (Score: 0-1) **Context:** Inter leading 0-1 at 25'. 2 models (system4_MC_v10, system4_BLEND_v10) entered Asian Handicap markets, targeting Fiorentina +1.5. Average expected value was 39.5%, with a combined stake of $2393. The sharpest edge was on Fiorentina +1.5 (Asian Handicap): OddsFlow calculated 92.2% probability versus the market's implied 54.8% — a 37.4 percentage point gap at odds of 1.825. **Result:** All 2 trades won, netting +$1974.23. ### Wave 2 — Minute 29' (Score: 0-1) **Context:** Inter leading 0-1 at 29'. 2 models (system4_MC_v10, system4_BLEND_v10) entered Asian Handicap markets, targeting Fiorentina +1. Average expected value was 32.0%, with a combined stake of $1184. The sharpest edge was on Fiorentina +1 (Asian Handicap): OddsFlow calculated 72.2% probability versus the market's implied 42.6% — a 29.6 percentage point gap at odds of 2.35. **Result:** All 2 trades won, netting +$1598.40. ### Wave 3 — Minute 79' (Score: 1-1) **Context:** Level at 1-1 after C. Ndour's equalizer at 77'. 2 models (system4_MC_v10, system4_BLEND_v10) entered Moneyline markets, targeting Draw. Average expected value was 7.1%, with a combined stake of $1000. **Result:** All 2 trades won, netting +$615.00.
Key Mispricing Moments
- **Minute 25'** — Asian Handicap Fiorentina +1.5: AI saw 92.2% vs market's 54.8% (37.4pp gap). correctly identified. - **Minute 25'** — Asian Handicap Fiorentina +1.5: AI saw 92.0% vs market's 54.8% (37.2pp gap). correctly identified. - **Minute 29'** — Asian Handicap Fiorentina +1: AI saw 72.2% vs market's 42.6% (29.6pp gap). correctly identified. - **Minute 29'** — Asian Handicap Fiorentina +1: AI saw 72.0% vs market's 42.6% (29.5pp gap). correctly identified.
Model Performance
- **system4_BLEND_v10**: 3 trades, 3W/0L, +$2095.35 (ROI: +91.5%) - **system4_MC_v10**: 3 trades, 3W/0L, +$2092.28 (ROI: +91.5%)
Match Statistics
Possession was 41%–59% in Fiorentina's deficit. Fiorentina had 16 shots (6 on target) versus Inter's 11 (3 on target). Expected goals: Fiorentina 2.27 — Inter 1.22. Corners: 3-5.
Verdict
A highly profitable match for OddsFlow. The AI models identified significant mispricings and converted them efficiently, returning +91.5% ROI. Top performer: system4_BLEND_v10 at +$2095.35.
A highly profitable match for OddsFlow. The AI models identified significant mispricings and converted them efficiently, returning +91.5% ROI on 6 trades. Top performer: Active Trader at +$2095.35.
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