Fiorentina0 - 0Genoa
FiorentinaWhy did AI enter 4 times at 15', 25', 43', 61' — and still finish +$1509?
Match Overview
Fiorentina hosted Genoa in the Serie A, finishing 0-0. OddsFlow deployed 9 trades across 4 waves, achieving 44% precision with a net result of +$1509.00 (ROI: +35.9%).
Pre-Match Odds
The Asian Handicap held at -0.5 but home odds shifted from 2.04 to 2.03.
Trade Wave Analysis
### Wave 1 — Minute 15' (Score: 0-0) **Context:** Scoreless at 15'. 1 model (oddsflow_core_v8.1) entered Asian Handicap markets, targeting Genoa 0. Average expected value was 19.4%, with a combined stake of $200. The sharpest edge was on Genoa 0 (Asian Handicap): OddsFlow calculated 57.0% probability versus the market's implied 40.0% — a 16.9 percentage point gap at odds of 2.5. **Result:** 0 of 1 trades won, netting +$0.00. ### Wave 2 — Minute 25' (Score: 0-0) **Context:** Scoreless at 25'. 2 models (system4_BLEND_v10, system4_MC_v10) entered Asian Handicap and Moneyline markets, targeting Genoa 0 and Draw. Average expected value was 15.9%, with a combined stake of $1500. The sharpest edge was on Genoa 0 (Asian Handicap): OddsFlow calculated 58.9% probability versus the market's implied 40.0% — a 18.9 percentage point gap at odds of 2.5. **Result:** 1 of 3 trades won, netting +$1000.00. ### Wave 3 — Minute 43' (Score: 0-0) **Context:** Scoreless at 43'. 2 models (system4_BLEND_v10, system4_MC_v10) entered Moneyline and Over/Under markets, targeting Draw and Under 1.5. Average expected value was 7.3%, with a combined stake of $1500. The sharpest edge was on Under 1.5 (Over/Under): OddsFlow calculated 63.7% probability versus the market's implied 57.9% — a 5.8 percentage point gap at odds of 1.727. **Result:** All 3 trades won, netting +$1509.00. ### Wave 4 — Minute 61' (Score: 0-0) **Context:** Scoreless at 61'. 2 models (system4_MC_v10, system4_BLEND_v10) entered Over/Under markets, targeting Over 0.5. Average expected value was 8.0%, with a combined stake of $1000. **Result:** All 2 trades lost, netting $-1000.00.
Key Mispricing Moments
- **Minute 25'** — Asian Handicap Genoa 0: AI saw 58.9% vs market's 40.0% (18.9pp gap). did not convert, but edge was real. - **Minute 25'** — Asian Handicap Genoa 0: AI saw 58.3% vs market's 40.0% (18.3pp gap). did not convert, but edge was real. - **Minute 15'** — Asian Handicap Genoa 0: AI saw 57.0% vs market's 40.0% (16.9pp gap). did not convert, but edge was real.
Model Performance
- **system4_MC_v10**: 4 trades, 2W/1L/1V, +$833.00 (ROI: +41.7%) - **system4_BLEND_v10**: 4 trades, 2W/1L/1V, +$676.00 (ROI: +33.8%) - **oddsflow_core_v8.1**: 1 trades, 0W/0L/1V, +$0.00 (ROI: +0.0%)
Match Statistics
Possession was 59–41 in Fiorentina's favor. Fiorentina had 12 shots (1 on target) versus Genoa's 9 (3 on target). Expected goals: Fiorentina 0.95 — Genoa 0.58. Corners: 4-3.
Verdict
A highly profitable match for OddsFlow. The AI models identified significant mispricings and converted them efficiently, returning +35.9% ROI. Top performer: system4_MC_v10 at +$833.00.
What the closing market expected
The prices bookmakers settled on before kick-off, with the margin removed, next to what actually happened.
| Market | Line | Implied probability |
|---|---|---|
| 1X2 (home / draw / away) | Favourite: Home | 49.5% / 29.1% / 24.9% |
| Asian handicap | -0.5 | 49.3% |
| Over / Under | 2.25 | 53.5% |
Probabilities are de-vigged, so they describe the market's view rather than the price you would have been offered.
The Over/Under 2.25 market significantly mispriced the low-scoring nature of the match, presenting strong Under value.
The Serie A clash between Fiorentina and Genoa concluded in a surprising 0-0 draw. The 1x2 market heavily favored a Fiorentina win with an implied probability of 49.5%, while the draw was priced at only 29.15%. This represented a clear misjudgment, as the goalless stalemate delivered an EV+ outcome for draw bettors. On the Asian Handicap, Fiorentina at -0.5 was expected to cover with a 49.26% probability, but the draw meant the favorite failed to cover the spread, indicating another market inefficiency. However, the most pronounced market error was observed in the Totals (Over/Under 2.25). Despite the match ending 0-0, the market assigned a 53.48% probability to the 'Over', expecting a game with more than 2 goals. The actual outcome was a definitive 'Under', highlighting a significant Market Inefficiency and a strong Value Signal for those backing the Under at closing line. The bookmakers clearly got it wrong, overestimating the attacking potential and underestimating the defensive solidity or lack of attacking execution.
A highly profitable match for OddsFlow. The AI models identified significant mispricings and converted them efficiently, returning +35.9% ROI on 9 trades. Top performer: HDP Sniper at +$833.00.
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