Fiorentina1 - 1Atalanta
FiorentinaWhy did AI enter 5 times at 0', 17', 35', 39', 46' — and still finish +$64?
Match Overview
Fiorentina hosted Atalanta in the Serie A, finishing 1-1. Goals: R. Piccoli (39'), P. Comuzzo (82' OG). OddsFlow deployed 19 trades across 5 waves, achieving 47% precision with a net result of +$63.50 (ROI: +4.0%).
Pre-Match Odds
The Asian Handicap remained steady at 0; the Over/Under line shifted from 2.75 to 3.
Trade Wave Analysis
### Wave 1 — Minute 0' (Score: 0-0) **Context:** Scoreless at 0'. 1 model (S5.1_Pre) entered Over/Under markets, targeting Under 3. Average expected value was 25.1%, with a combined stake of $10. **Result:** All 1 trades won, netting +$8.50. ### Wave 2 — Minute 17' (Score: 0-0) **Context:** Scoreless at 17'. 1 model (oddsflow_core_v8.1) entered Asian Handicap markets, targeting Fiorentina +0.5. Average expected value was 13.8%, with a combined stake of $100. The sharpest edge was on Fiorentina +0.5 (Asian Handicap): OddsFlow calculated 69.0% probability versus the market's implied 58.8% — a 10.2 percentage point gap at odds of 1.7. **Result:** All 1 trades won, netting +$70.00. ### Wave 3 — Minute 35' (Score: 0-0) **Context:** Scoreless at 35'. 2 models (system4_MC_v10, system4_BLEND_v10) entered Over/Under and Asian Handicap markets, targeting Under 1.5 and Fiorentina +0.5 and Under 2.5 and Under 2. Average expected value was 25.3%, with a combined stake of $650. The sharpest edge was on Under 2 (Over/Under): OddsFlow calculated 81.2% probability versus the market's implied 54.9% — a 26.2 percentage point gap at odds of 1.82. **Result:** 3 of 7 trades won, netting $-10.00. ### Wave 4 — Minute 39' (Score: 0-0) **Context:** Scoreless at 39'. 3 models (oddsflow_core_v8.1, system4_BLEND_v10, system4_MC_v10) entered Asian Handicap and Over/Under markets, targeting Atalanta -0.5 and Under 2.5. Average expected value was 25.3%, with a combined stake of $400. The sharpest edge was on Atalanta -0.5 (Asian Handicap): OddsFlow calculated 77.0% probability versus the market's implied 50.6% — a 26.4 percentage point gap at odds of 1.975. **Result:** All 4 trades won, netting +$430.00. ### Wave 5 — Minute 46' (Score: 1-0) **Context:** Fiorentina leading 1-0 at 46'. 2 models (system4_MC_v10, system4_BLEND_v10) entered Moneyline markets, targeting Fiorentina. Average expected value was 24.0%, with a combined stake of $435. The sharpest edge was on Fiorentina (Moneyline): OddsFlow calculated 67.8% probability versus the market's implied 50.5% — a 17.3 percentage point gap at odds of 1.98. **Result:** All 6 trades lost, netting $-435.00.
Key Mispricing Moments
- **Minute 41'** — Asian Handicap Atalanta -0.5: AI saw 77.0% vs market's 50.6% (26.4pp gap). correctly identified. - **Minute 35'** — Over/Under Under 2: AI saw 81.2% vs market's 54.9% (26.2pp gap). did not convert, but edge was real. - **Minute 35'** — Over/Under Under 2: AI saw 81.2% vs market's 54.9% (26.2pp gap). did not convert, but edge was real. - **Minute 41'** — Asian Handicap Atalanta -0.5: AI saw 76.8% vs market's 50.6% (26.1pp gap). correctly identified. - **Minute 41'** — Over/Under Under 2.5: AI saw 65.8% vs market's 42.1% (23.7pp gap). correctly identified.
Model Performance
- **oddsflow_core_v8.1**: 2 trades, 2W/0L, +$167.50 (ROI: +83.8%) - **system4_BLEND_v10**: 7 trades, 3W/4L, +$20.00 (ROI: +3.4%) - **S5.1_Pre**: 1 trades, 1W/0L, +$8.50 (ROI: +85.0%) - **system4_MC_v10**: 9 trades, 3W/4L/2V, $-132.50 (ROI: -16.6%)
Match Statistics
Possession was 40–60 in Fiorentina's deficit. Fiorentina had 10 shots (4 on target) versus Atalanta's 21 (6 on target). Expected goals: Fiorentina 0.79 — Atalanta 1.58. Corners: 3-3.
Verdict
A positive result for OddsFlow with +4.0% ROI. The models found genuine edges though not all converted. Top performer: oddsflow_core_v8.1 at +$167.50.
What the closing market expected
The prices bookmakers settled on before kick-off, with the margin removed, next to what actually happened.
| Market | Line | Implied probability |
|---|---|---|
| 1X2 (home / draw / away) | Favourite: Away | 36.4% / 28.0% / 38.9% |
| Asian handicap | 0 | 52.9% |
| Over / Under | 3 | 49.0% |
Probabilities are de-vigged, so they describe the market's view rather than the price you would have been offered.
Undervalued Draw in 1x2 Market
The Serie A clash between Fiorentina and Atalanta concluded in a 1-1 draw. In the 1x2 market, the market priced Atalanta as slight favorites (38.91% implied win probability), with Fiorentina at 36.36% and the draw at a lower 28.01%. The actual outcome was a draw, indicating a significant undervaluation of this possibility by the market. On the Asian Handicap with a line of 0, the market slightly favored Atalanta (52.91% to cover). The 1-1 draw resulted in a push on this line, showing a minor misjudgment of Atalanta's winning potential. The Totals (Over/Under) market for 3 goals saw a strong lean towards the Under (54.05% probability). The actual total of 2 goals confirmed the market's efficiency in predicting a lower-scoring affair. The primary market inefficiency was the undervaluation of the draw in the 1x2 market.
A positive result with +4.0% ROI. The models found genuine edges, finishing at +$63.50. Top performer: Oddsflow Core Strategy at +$167.50.
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