Cremonese0 - 0Torino
CremoneseWhy did AI enter 5 times at 25', 50', 54', 58', 66' — and still finish +$939?
Match Overview
Cremonese hosted Torino in the Serie A, finishing 0-0. Goals: F. Baschirotto (61'). OddsFlow deployed 10 trades across 5 waves, achieving 40% precision with a net result of +$938.80 (ROI: +16.1%).
Pre-Match Odds
The Asian Handicap held at 0 but home odds shifted from 2.08 to 1.95; the Over/Under stayed at 2.25 with Over odds moving from 1.93 to 2.02; the home moneyline shortened from 2.98 to 2.84.
Trade Wave Analysis
### Wave 1 — Minute 25' (Score: 0-0) **Context:** Scoreless at 25'. 2 models (system4_MC_v10, system4_BLEND_v10) entered Asian Handicap and Moneyline markets, targeting Torino 0 and Torino. Average expected value was 16.4%, with a combined stake of $2553. The sharpest edge was on Torino 0 (Asian Handicap): OddsFlow calculated 78.3% probability versus the market's implied 55.6% — a 22.7 percentage point gap at odds of 1.8. **Result:** 0 of 4 trades won, netting $-1000.00. ### Wave 2 — Minute 50' (Score: 0-0) **Context:** Scoreless at 50'. 1 model (system4_BLEND_v10) entered Moneyline markets, targeting Draw. Average expected value was 5.7%, with a combined stake of $500. **Result:** All 1 trades won, netting +$875.00. ### Wave 3 — Minute 54' (Score: 0-0) **Context:** Scoreless at 54'. 2 models (system4_MC_v10, system4_BLEND_v10) entered Over/Under markets, targeting Over 0.5. Average expected value was 8.0%, with a combined stake of $1000. **Result:** All 2 trades lost, netting $-1000.00. ### Wave 4 — Minute 58' (Score: 0-0) **Context:** Scoreless at 58'. 1 model (system4_MC_v10) entered Moneyline markets, targeting Draw. Average expected value was 8.6%, with a combined stake of $500. **Result:** All 1 trades won, netting +$600.00. ### Wave 5 — Minute 66' (Score: 1-0) **Context:** Cremonese leading 1-0 at 66'. null scored moments ago. 1 model (system4_HYBRID_v10) entered Asian Handicap and Moneyline markets, targeting Torino 0 and Draw. Average expected value was 25.0%, with a combined stake of $1288. The sharpest edge was on Torino 0 (Asian Handicap): OddsFlow calculated 83.4% probability versus the market's implied 42.6% — a 40.9 percentage point gap at odds of 2.35. **Result:** All 2 trades won, netting +$1463.80.
Key Mispricing Moments
- **Minute 66'** — Asian Handicap Torino 0: AI saw 83.4% vs market's 42.6% (40.9pp gap). correctly identified. - **Minute 25'** — Asian Handicap Torino 0: AI saw 78.3% vs market's 55.6% (22.7pp gap). did not convert, but edge was real. - **Minute 25'** — Asian Handicap Torino 0: AI saw 77.9% vs market's 55.6% (22.4pp gap). did not convert, but edge was real.
Model Performance
- **system4_HYBRID_v10**: 2 trades, 2W/0L, +$1463.80 (ROI: +113.6%) - **system4_BLEND_v10**: 4 trades, 1W/2L/1V, $-125.00 (ROI: -5.5%) - **system4_MC_v10**: 4 trades, 1W/2L/1V, $-400.00 (ROI: -17.6%)
Match Statistics
Possession was 64%–36% in Cremonese's favor. Cremonese had 12 shots (4 on target) versus Torino's 2 (0 on target). Expected goals: Cremonese 0.71 — Torino 0.07. Corners: 6-0.
Verdict
A positive result for OddsFlow with +16.1% ROI. The models found genuine edges though not all converted. Top performer: system4_HYBRID_v10 at +$1463.80.
What the closing market expected
The prices bookmakers settled on before kick-off, with the margin removed, next to what actually happened.
| Market | Line | Implied probability |
|---|---|---|
| 1X2 (home / draw / away) | Favourite: Home | 35.2% / 32.6% / 35.0% |
| Asian handicap | 0 | 51.3% |
| Over / Under | 2.25 | 49.5% |
Probabilities are de-vigged, so they describe the market's view rather than the price you would have been offered.
The market significantly underestimated the probability of 'Under 2.25 Goals'.
The Serie A clash between Cremonese and Torino concluded in a 0-0 stalemate, a result that exposed notable market inefficiencies. In the 1x2 market, the draw, priced at an implied probability of 32.57% by our model, proved to be the actual outcome, indicating a slight undervaluation by the closing line for a draw. The Asian Handicap (0) resulted in a push, aligning with balanced market sentiment where both teams had similar implied probabilities to cover. However, the most significant inefficiency was observed in the Totals market. With a closing line of 2.25 goals, the 'Under' was assigned a 52.91% probability by the OddsFlow model. The actual score of zero goals decisively landed far 'Under' the line, suggesting the market substantially overestimated the goal-scoring potential. This represents a clear EV+ opportunity for bettors who identified the low-scoring potential.
A positive result with +16.1% ROI. The models found genuine edges, finishing at +$938.80. Top performer: Oddsflow Beta at +$1463.80.
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