Cremonese3 - 0Pisa
CremoneseWhy did AI enter 2 times at 0', 15' — and still finish $-487?
Match Overview
Cremonese hosted Pisa in the Serie A, finishing 3-0. Goals: J. Vardy (31'), F. Bonazzoli (51'). Pisa received a red card (R. Bozhinov, 23'). OddsFlow deployed 2 trades across 2 waves, achieving 0% precision with a net result of $-487.00 (ROI: -100.0%).
Pre-Match Odds
The Asian Handicap held at -0.5 but home odds shifted from 2.04 to 1.83; the home moneyline shortened from 2.03 to 1.83.
Trade Wave Analysis
### Wave 1 — Minute 0' (Score: 0-0) **Context:** Scoreless at 0'. 1 model (S5.1_Pre) entered Moneyline markets, targeting Pisa. Average expected value was 43.4%, with a combined stake of $287. The sharpest edge was on Pisa (Moneyline): OddsFlow calculated 29.9% probability versus the market's implied 20.9% — a 9.1 percentage point gap at odds of 4.79. **Result:** All 1 trades lost, netting $-287.00. ### Wave 2 — Minute 15' (Score: 0-0) **Context:** Scoreless at 15'. 1 model (oddsflow_core_v8.1) entered Asian Handicap markets, targeting Pisa 0. Average expected value was 28.4%, with a combined stake of $200. The sharpest edge was on Pisa 0 (Asian Handicap): OddsFlow calculated 62.5% probability versus the market's implied 36.4% — a 26.1 percentage point gap at odds of 2.75. **Result:** All 1 trades lost, netting $-200.00.
Key Mispricing Moments
- **Minute 15'** — Asian Handicap Pisa 0: AI saw 62.5% vs market's 36.4% (26.1pp gap). did not convert, but edge was real.
Model Performance
- **oddsflow_core_v8.1**: 1 trades, 0W/1L, $-200.00 (ROI: -100.0%) - **S5.1_Pre**: 1 trades, 0W/1L, $-287.00 (ROI: -100.0%)
Match Statistics
Possession was 77–23 in Cremonese's favor. Cremonese had 10 shots (6 on target) versus Pisa's 0 (0 on target). Corners: 7-1.
Verdict
A tough session at -100.0% ROI. The market moved against OddsFlow's positions, though the underlying probability assessments may still prove correct over a larger sample. Top performer: oddsflow_core_v8.1 at $-200.00.
What the closing market expected
The prices bookmakers settled on before kick-off, with the margin removed, next to what actually happened.
| Market | Line | Implied probability |
|---|---|---|
| 1X2 (home / draw / away) | Favourite: Home | 54.6% / 27.9% / 20.9% |
| Asian handicap | -0.5 | 54.6% |
| Over / Under | 2.25 | 51.0% |
Probabilities are de-vigged, so they describe the market's view rather than the price you would have been offered.
Underestimation of total goals (Over 2.25)
Cremonese secured a dominant 3-0 victory over Pisa in Serie A. The 1x2 market correctly identified Cremonese as the favorite with a 54.64% implied probability, aligning with their decisive win. Cremonese comfortably covered the -0.5 Asian Handicap, demonstrating Closing Line Value for backers. With 3 goals scored, the 'Over 2.25 Goals' hit, despite the market showing a slight lean towards the 'Under' at 51.81%. This indicates a potential Market Inefficiency in total goals pricing. The significant goal count suggests the market slightly underestimated the probability of an 'Over' outcome, presenting an EV+ opportunity.
A tough session at -100.0% ROI. The market moved against OddsFlow's positions. Top performer: Oddsflow Core Strategy at $-200.00.
See AI signals as they happen
This report shows settled results. Get real-time AI signals during live matches.