Cremonese

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Fiorentina

Cremonese hosted Fiorentina in the Serie A, finishing 1-4. Goals: F. Parisi (25'), R. Piccoli (32'), R. Piccoli (33'), Dodo (49'), D. Okereke (57'), A. Gudmundsson (70'). OddsFlow deployed 13 trades across 1 wave, achieving 54% precision with a net result of +$655.74 (ROI: +9.6%).

The Asian Handicap held at 0.5 but home odds shifted from 1.92 to 1.94; the Over/Under line shifted from 2.5 to 2.25; the home moneyline drifted out from 3.88 to 4.15.

### Wave 1 — Minute 25' (Score: 0-0) **Context:** Scoreless at 25'. 3 models (system4_MC_v10, system4_BLEND_v10, system4_HYBRID_v10) entered Moneyline and Asian Handicap and Over/Under markets, targeting Fiorentina and Fiorentina +0.5 and Over 1.5 and Cremonese +1 and Cremonese +0.5. Average expected value was 12.6%, with a combined stake of $6818. The sharpest edge was on Fiorentina (Moneyline): OddsFlow calculated 86.4% probability versus the market's implied 51.2% — a 35.2 percentage point gap at odds of 1.952. **Result:** 7 of 13 trades won, netting +$655.74.

- **Minute 30'** — Moneyline Fiorentina: AI saw 86.4% vs market's 51.2% (35.2pp gap). correctly identified. - **Minute 26'** — Asian Handicap Cremonese +1: AI saw 56.0% vs market's 42.1% (13.9pp gap). did not convert, but edge was real. - **Minute 26'** — Asian Handicap Cremonese +1: AI saw 54.9% vs market's 42.1% (12.8pp gap). did not convert, but edge was real. - **Minute 28'** — Asian Handicap Cremonese +1: AI saw 55.3% vs market's 42.6% (12.7pp gap). did not convert, but edge was real. - **Minute 26'** — Over/Under Over 1.5: AI saw 70.0% vs market's 57.9% (12.1pp gap). correctly identified.

- **system4_MC_v10**: 5 trades, 3W/2L, +$438.50 (ROI: +17.5%) - **system4_BLEND_v10**: 5 trades, 3W/2L, +$438.50 (ROI: +17.5%) - **system4_HYBRID_v10**: 3 trades, 1W/2L, $-221.26 (ROI: -12.2%)

Possession was 48%–52% in Cremonese's deficit. Cremonese had 13 shots (3 on target) versus Fiorentina's 13 (6 on target). Expected goals: Cremonese 1.19 — Fiorentina 1.81. Corners: 4-6.