Cremonese1 - 4Como
CremoneseWhy did AI enter 2 times at 0', 26' — and still finish +$141?
Match Overview
Cremonese hosted Como in the Serie A, finishing 1-4. Goals: J. Rodriguez (36'), A. Douvikas (51'), F. Bonazzoli (55' pen), L. Da Cunha (74' pen), L. Da Cunha (81'). Cremonese received a red card (M. Djuric, 71'). OddsFlow deployed 3 trades across 2 waves, achieving 67% precision with a net result of +$141.40 (ROI: +97.5%).
Pre-Match Odds
The Asian Handicap line moved from 0.75 to 1.25; the home moneyline drifted out from 5 to 6.68.
Trade Wave Analysis
### Wave 1 — Minute 0' (Score: 0-0) **Context:** Scoreless at 0'. 1 model (S5.1_Pre) entered Over/Under markets, targeting Under 2.75. Average expected value was 12.6%, with a combined stake of $10. **Result:** All 1 trades lost, netting $-10.00. ### Wave 2 — Minute 26' (Score: 0-0) **Context:** Scoreless at 26'. 1 model (oddsflow_core_v8.1) entered Asian Handicap markets, targeting Como +1. Average expected value was 20.8%, with a combined stake of $135. The sharpest edge was on Como +1 (Asian Handicap): OddsFlow calculated 61.0% probability versus the market's implied 46.5% — a 14.4 percentage point gap at odds of 2.15. **Result:** All 2 trades won, netting +$151.40.
Key Mispricing Moments
- **Minute 26'** — Asian Handicap Como +1: AI saw 61.0% vs market's 46.5% (14.4pp gap). correctly identified. - **Minute 26'** — Asian Handicap Como +1: AI saw 61.0% vs market's 49.0% (11.9pp gap). correctly identified.
Model Performance
- **oddsflow_core_v8.1**: 2 trades, 2W/0L, +$151.40 (ROI: +112.1%) - **S5.1_Pre**: 1 trades, 0W/1L, $-10.00 (ROI: -100.0%)
Match Statistics
Possession was 29–71 in Cremonese's deficit. Cremonese had 6 shots (1 on target) versus Como's 15 (6 on target). Expected goals: Cremonese 1.06 — Como 2.35. Corners: 2-4.
Verdict
A highly profitable match for OddsFlow. The AI models identified significant mispricings and converted them efficiently, returning +97.5% ROI. Top performer: oddsflow_core_v8.1 at +$151.40.
What the closing market expected
The prices bookmakers settled on before kick-off, with the margin removed, next to what actually happened.
| Market | Line | Implied probability |
|---|---|---|
| 1X2 (home / draw / away) | Favourite: Away | 15.0% / 21.6% / 67.1% |
| Asian handicap | +1.25 | 47.6% |
| Over / Under | 2.75 | 51.8% |
Probabilities are de-vigged, so they describe the market's view rather than the price you would have been offered.
Significant EV+ on Over 2.75 Goals
The Serie A fixture between Cremonese and Como concluded with a decisive 1-4 victory for Como. The 1x2 market accurately priced Como as the strong favorite with a 67.11% implied probability, which materialized. In the Handicap market, Como was offered at -1.25. Despite winning by a substantial margin of three goals (4-1), comfortably covering the line, the market only assigned a 47.62% probability to Como covering this spread. This indicates a potential Closing Line Value opportunity. However, the most striking inefficiency was observed in the Totals (Over/Under) market. With a closing line of 2.75 goals and an implied probability of 51.81% for the Over, the match produced a total of 5 goals. This significant overshoot of the line highlights a clear EV+ signal on the Over 2.75 goals.
A highly profitable match for OddsFlow. The AI models identified significant mispricings and converted them efficiently, returning +97.5% ROI on 3 trades. Top performer: Oddsflow Core Strategy at +$151.40.
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