Cremonese0 - 2AC Milan
CremoneseWhat went wrong? 1 trades, $-200 — the AI's post-mortem.
Match Overview
Cremonese hosted AC Milan in the Serie A, finishing 0-2. Goals: S. Pavlovic (90'), R. Leao (90'). OddsFlow deployed 1 trades across 1 wave, achieving 0% precision with a net result of $-200.00 (ROI: -100.0%).
Pre-Match Odds
The Asian Handicap line moved from 1 to 1.25; the home moneyline drifted out from 6.7 to 8.87.
Trade Wave Analysis
### Wave 1 — Minute 29' (Score: 0-0) **Context:** Scoreless at 29'. 1 model (oddsflow_core_v8.1) entered Asian Handicap markets, targeting Cremonese +0.75. Average expected value was 9.9%, with a combined stake of $200. The sharpest edge was on Cremonese +0.75 (Asian Handicap): OddsFlow calculated 58.7% probability versus the market's implied 48.8% — a 9.9 percentage point gap at odds of 2.05. **Result:** All 1 trades lost, netting $-200.00.
Model Performance
- **oddsflow_core_v8.1**: 1 trades, 0W/1L, $-200.00 (ROI: -100.0%)
Match Statistics
Possession was 47%–53% in Cremonese's deficit. Cremonese had 15 shots (3 on target) versus AC Milan's 19 (5 on target). Expected goals: Cremonese 0.91 — AC Milan 2.78. Corners: 6-7.
Verdict
A tough session at -100.0% ROI. The market moved against OddsFlow's positions, though the underlying probability assessments may still prove correct over a larger sample.
What the closing market expected
The prices bookmakers settled on before kick-off, with the margin removed, next to what actually happened.
| Market | Line | Implied probability |
|---|---|---|
| 1X2 (home / draw / away) | Favourite: Away | 11.3% / 21.1% / 70.9% |
| Asian handicap | +1.25 | 51.8% |
| Over / Under | 2.5 | 52.9% |
Probabilities are de-vigged, so they describe the market's view rather than the price you would have been offered.
The market slightly overvalued the 'Over 2.5 Goals' outcome.
The Serie A fixture between Cremonese and AC Milan concluded with a 0-2 victory for the visitors. The 1x2 market correctly identified AC Milan as the dominant force, assigning them a 70.92% win probability, which materialized with a comfortable away win. In the Handicap market, AC Milan covered the -1.25 Asian Handicap, achieving a 2-goal margin as predicted by the market's 51.81% implied probability for the away cover. The primary market inefficiency emerged in the Totals market. Despite the closing line favoring 'Over 2.5 Goals' with a 52.91% implied probability, the match finished with only 2 goals, resulting in an 'Under' outcome. This signals a clear Value Signal for bettors who identified the potential for fewer goals than the market anticipated.
A tough session at -100.0% ROI. The market moved against OddsFlow's positions.
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