Como1 - 0Parma
Como1 trades, 100% precision — how did AI read this match?
Match Overview
Como hosted Parma in the Serie A, finishing 1-0. Goals: A. Moreno (58'). OddsFlow deployed 1 trades across 1 wave, achieving 100% precision with a net result of +$10.10 (ROI: +101.0%).
Pre-Match Odds
The Asian Handicap line moved from -1.5 to -1.75.
Trade Wave Analysis
### Wave 1 — Minute 0' (Score: 0-0) **Context:** Scoreless at 0'. 1 model (S5.1_Pre) entered Over/Under markets, targeting Under 2.75. Average expected value was 8.6%, with a combined stake of $10. **Result:** All 1 trades won, netting +$10.10.
Model Performance
- **S5.1_Pre**: 1 trades, 1W/0L, +$10.10 (ROI: +101.0%)
Match Statistics
Possession was 67–33 in Como's favor. Como had 23 shots (7 on target) versus Parma's 2 (2 on target). Expected goals: Como 2.9 — Parma 0.43. Corners: 15-2.
Verdict
A highly profitable match for OddsFlow. The AI models identified significant mispricings and converted them efficiently, returning +101.0% ROI.
What the closing market expected
The prices bookmakers settled on before kick-off, with the margin removed, next to what actually happened.
| Market | Line | Implied probability |
|---|---|---|
| 1X2 (home / draw / away) | Favourite: Home | 78.7% / 16.8% / 8.2% |
| Asian handicap | -1.75 | 49.0% |
| Over / Under | 2.75 | 54.6% |
Probabilities are de-vigged, so they describe the market's view rather than the price you would have been offered.
The market significantly overestimated the goal count, leading to a strong Under 2.75 value signal.
The Serie A clash between Como and Parma concluded 1-0 in favor of Como. In the 1x2 market, Como, priced as the clear favorite with an implied win probability of 78.74%, secured the outright victory, aligning with market expectations. However, the Asian Handicap of Como -1.75 proved too high; Como's 1-goal margin meant Parma (+1.75) successfully covered, a scenario given a 53.48% probability by our model. The most significant market inefficiency emerged in the Totals market. Despite the closing line favoring Over 2.75 goals with an implied probability of 54.64%, the match produced only 1 goal, resulting in a profitable 'Under' outcome. This demonstrates a clear instance where market sentiment misjudged the goal-scoring potential.
A highly profitable match for OddsFlow. The AI models identified significant mispricings and converted them efficiently, returning +101.0% ROI on 1 trades.
See AI signals as they happen
This report shows settled results. Get real-time AI signals during live matches.