Como0 - 0Napoli
ComoWhy did AI enter 6 times at 25', 34', 42', 61', 65', 71' — and still finish $-4684?
Match Overview
Como hosted Napoli in the Serie A, finishing 0-0. OddsFlow deployed 16 trades across 6 waves, achieving 13% precision with a net result of $-4683.50 (ROI: -58.2%).
Pre-Match Odds
The Asian Handicap held at -0.25 but home odds shifted from 1.97 to 1.95.
Trade Wave Analysis
### Wave 1 — Minute 25' (Score: 0-0) **Context:** Scoreless at 25'. 2 models (system4_MC_v10, system4_BLEND_v10) entered Asian Handicap and Over/Under and Moneyline markets, targeting Como -0.5 and Over 1.5 and Como. Average expected value was 13.9%, with a combined stake of $3047. The sharpest edge was on Como -0.5 (Asian Handicap): OddsFlow calculated 56.1% probability versus the market's implied 42.1% — a 14.0 percentage point gap at odds of 2.375. **Result:** All 6 trades lost, netting $-3047.00. ### Wave 2 — Minute 34' (Score: 0-0) **Context:** Scoreless at 34'. 1 model (system4_HYBRID_v10) entered Over/Under and Asian Handicap and Moneyline markets, targeting Over 1.5 and Como -0.5 and Como. Average expected value was 11.5%, with a combined stake of $1500. The sharpest edge was on Como -0.5 (Asian Handicap): OddsFlow calculated 53.2% probability versus the market's implied 43.5% — a 9.8 percentage point gap at odds of 2.3. **Result:** All 3 trades lost, netting $-1500.00. ### Wave 3 — Minute 42' (Score: 0-0) **Context:** Scoreless at 42'. 3 models (system4_MC_v10, system4_BLEND_v10, system4_HYBRID_v10) entered Asian Handicap markets, targeting Napoli 0. Average expected value was 10.4%, with a combined stake of $1500. The sharpest edge was on Napoli 0 (Asian Handicap): OddsFlow calculated 50.8% probability versus the market's implied 42.6% — a 8.2 percentage point gap at odds of 2.35. **Result:** 0 of 3 trades won, netting +$0.00. ### Wave 4 — Minute 61' (Score: 0-0) **Context:** Scoreless at 61'. 2 models (system4_MC_v10, system4_BLEND_v10) entered Over/Under markets, targeting Over 0.5. Average expected value was 8.0%, with a combined stake of $1000. **Result:** All 2 trades lost, netting $-1000.00. ### Wave 5 — Minute 65' (Score: 0-0) **Context:** Scoreless at 65'. 1 model (system4_MC_v10) entered Moneyline markets, targeting Draw. Average expected value was 5.0%, with a combined stake of $500. **Result:** All 1 trades won, netting +$500.00. ### Wave 6 — Minute 71' (Score: 0-0) **Context:** Scoreless at 71'. 1 model (system4_BLEND_v10) entered Moneyline markets, targeting Draw. Average expected value was 4.6%, with a combined stake of $500. **Result:** All 1 trades won, netting +$363.50.
Key Mispricing Moments
- **Minute 25'** — Asian Handicap Como -0.5: AI saw 56.1% vs market's 42.1% (14.0pp gap). did not convert, but edge was real. - **Minute 25'** — Asian Handicap Como -0.5: AI saw 55.9% vs market's 42.1% (13.8pp gap). did not convert, but edge was real. - **Minute 25'** — Moneyline Como: AI saw 52.7% vs market's 41.7% (11.0pp gap). did not convert, but edge was real.
Model Performance
- **system4_HYBRID_v10**: 4 trades, 0W/3L/1V, $-1500.00 (ROI: -75.0%) - **system4_MC_v10**: 6 trades, 1W/4L/1V, $-1527.00 (ROI: -50.4%) - **system4_BLEND_v10**: 6 trades, 1W/4L/1V, $-1656.50 (ROI: -54.9%)
Match Statistics
Possession was 58%–42% in Como's favor. Como had 8 shots (4 on target) versus Napoli's 3 (0 on target). Expected goals: Como 0.87 — Napoli 0.29. Corners: 1-1.
Verdict
A tough session at -58.2% ROI. The market moved against OddsFlow's positions, though the underlying probability assessments may still prove correct over a larger sample. Top performer: system4_HYBRID_v10 at $-1500.00.
What the closing market expected
The prices bookmakers settled on before kick-off, with the margin removed, next to what actually happened.
| Market | Line | Implied probability |
|---|---|---|
| 1X2 (home / draw / away) | Favourite: Home | 43.9% / 30.8% / 28.3% |
| Asian handicap | -0.25 | 51.3% |
| Over / Under | 2.25 | 52.4% |
Probabilities are de-vigged, so they describe the market's view rather than the price you would have been offered.
The market significantly mispriced the Under 2.25 goals, anticipating higher scoring activity.
The Serie A clash between Como and Napoli concluded in a 0-0 draw, a result that highlighted clear market inefficiencies. The 1x2 market implied a 30.77% chance for a draw, while Como was the slight favorite with a 43.86% win probability. However, the most glaring mispricing was in the Totals market. Despite a closing line of 2.25, the market leaned heavily towards the Over with a 52.36% implied probability. The actual outcome of zero goals provided a strong Value Signal for the Under, as the closing line totally missed the mark on the game's scoring potential. The Handicap market, with Como at -0.25, also failed to capture the eventual stalemate, resulting in a half-loss for Como backers.
A tough session at -58.2% ROI. The market moved against OddsFlow's positions. Top performer: Oddsflow Beta at $-1500.00.
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