Como3 - 4Inter
ComoWhy did AI enter 6 times at 25', 28', 41', 50', 59', 65' — and still finish +$9485?
Match Overview
Como hosted Inter in the Serie A, finishing 3-4. Goals: A. Valle (36'), N. Paz (45'), M. Thuram (45'), M. Thuram (49'), D. Dumfries (59'), D. Dumfries (72'), L. Da Cunha (88' pen). OddsFlow deployed 29 trades across 6 waves, achieving 79% precision with a net result of +$9485.18 (ROI: +63.5%).
Pre-Match Odds
The Asian Handicap held at 0.25 but home odds shifted from 1.91 to 1.85; the Over/Under stayed at 2.5 with Over odds moving from 1.89 to 2.02.
Trade Wave Analysis
### Wave 1 — Minute 25' (Score: 0-0) **Context:** Scoreless at 25'. 2 models (system4_BLEND_v10, system4_MC_v10) entered Moneyline and Asian Handicap markets, targeting Como and Inter 0. Average expected value was 5.5%, with a combined stake of $2000. The sharpest edge was on Como (Moneyline): OddsFlow calculated 42.1% probability versus the market's implied 33.3% — a 8.7 percentage point gap at odds of 3. **Result:** 2 of 4 trades won, netting $-200.00. ### Wave 2 — Minute 28' (Score: 0-0) **Context:** Scoreless at 28'. 1 model (system4_BLEND_v10) entered Asian Handicap markets, targeting Como 0. Average expected value was 2.8%, with a combined stake of $500. **Result:** All 1 trades lost, netting $-500.00. ### Wave 3 — Minute 41' (Score: 1-0) **Context:** Como leading 1-0 at 41'. A. Valle scored moments ago. 3 models (system4_BLEND_v10, system4_MC_v10, system4_HYBRID_v10) entered Asian Handicap and Over/Under markets, targeting Inter -0.5 and Over 1.5 and Inter -1.5 and Over 3.5 and Inter 0. Average expected value was 28.9%, with a combined stake of $5759. The sharpest edge was on Inter -1.5 (Asian Handicap): OddsFlow calculated 90.9% probability versus the market's implied 44.4% — a 46.4 percentage point gap at odds of 2.25. **Result:** All 11 trades won, netting +$6225.75. ### Wave 4 — Minute 50' (Score: 2-2) **Context:** Level at 2-2 after M. Thuram's equalizer at 49'. Inter made 3 substitutions. 3 models (system4_BLEND_v10, system4_MC_v10, system4_HYBRID_v10) entered Over/Under and Moneyline markets, targeting Over 4.5 and Draw. Average expected value was 16.1%, with a combined stake of $3000. The sharpest edge was on Over 4.5 (Over/Under): OddsFlow calculated 70.0% probability versus the market's implied 52.4% — a 17.6 percentage point gap at odds of 1.909. **Result:** 3 of 6 trades won, netting $-136.50. ### Wave 5 — Minute 59' (Score: 2-3) **Context:** Inter leading 2-3 at 59'. D. Dumfries scored moments ago. Inter made 5 substitutions. 3 models (system4_MC_v10, system4_BLEND_v10, system4_HYBRID_v10) entered Over/Under and Moneyline and Asian Handicap markets, targeting Over 5.5 and Inter and Como +1. Average expected value was 28.2%, with a combined stake of $3103. The sharpest edge was on Como +1 (Asian Handicap): OddsFlow calculated 84.9% probability versus the market's implied 50.6% — a 34.3 percentage point gap at odds of 1.975. **Result:** All 6 trades won, netting +$3675.43. ### Wave 6 — Minute 65' (Score: 2-3) **Context:** Inter leading 2-3 at 65'. 1 model (system4_HYBRID_v10) entered Asian Handicap markets, targeting Como +1. Average expected value was 28.1%, with a combined stake of $580. The sharpest edge was on Como +1 (Asian Handicap): OddsFlow calculated 83.5% probability versus the market's implied 58.0% — a 25.6 percentage point gap at odds of 1.725. **Result:** All 1 trades won, netting +$420.50.
Key Mispricing Moments
- **Minute 44'** — Asian Handicap Inter -1.5: AI saw 90.9% vs market's 44.4% (46.4pp gap). correctly identified. - **Minute 44'** — Asian Handicap Inter -1.5: AI saw 90.8% vs market's 44.4% (46.4pp gap). correctly identified. - **Minute 44'** — Asian Handicap Inter -1.5: AI saw 90.7% vs market's 44.4% (46.3pp gap). correctly identified. - **Minute 61'** — Asian Handicap Como +1: AI saw 84.9% vs market's 50.6% (34.3pp gap). correctly identified. - **Minute 62'** — Asian Handicap Como +1: AI saw 84.2% vs market's 50.6% (33.6pp gap). correctly identified.
Model Performance
- **system4_MC_v10**: 10 trades, 8W/2L, +$3224.33 (ROI: +62.7%) - **system4_HYBRID_v10**: 8 trades, 7W/1L, +$3213.25 (ROI: +77.1%) - **system4_BLEND_v10**: 11 trades, 8W/3L, +$3047.60 (ROI: +54.1%)
Match Statistics
Possession was 60%–40% in Como's favor. Como had 24 shots (8 on target) versus Inter's 7 (5 on target). Expected goals: Como 3.12 — Inter 0.88. Corners: 1-1.
Verdict
A highly profitable match for OddsFlow. The AI models identified significant mispricings and converted them efficiently, returning +63.5% ROI. Top performer: system4_MC_v10 at +$3224.33.
What the closing market expected
The prices bookmakers settled on before kick-off, with the margin removed, next to what actually happened.
| Market | Line | Implied probability |
|---|---|---|
| 1X2 (home / draw / away) | Favourite: Away | 31.4% / 30.6% / 40.8% |
| Asian handicap | +0.25 | 54.0% |
| Over / Under | 2.5 | 49.5% |
Probabilities are de-vigged, so they describe the market's view rather than the price you would have been offered.
The market drastically underestimated the goal output, leaning Under 2.5 when 7 goals were scored.
The match between Como and Inter concluded with a surprising 3-4 victory for Inter. In the 1x2 market, Inter was correctly identified as the favorite with a 40.82% win probability, and they secured the win. However, significant market inefficiencies emerged in other key markets. The Asian Handicap, set at +0.25 for Como, saw the market favor Como to cover with 54.05% probability. Inter's 3-4 win meant they comfortably covered the -0.25 line, indicating a clear misjudgment by the bookmakers on Inter's winning margin. The most profound inefficiency was in the Totals market. Despite the closing line for Over/Under 2.5 goals leaning towards the Under (52.91% probability), the match exploded with 7 goals. This demonstrates a substantial mispricing of goal expectation, highlighting a strong Value Signal on the Over.
A highly profitable match for OddsFlow. The AI models identified significant mispricings and converted them efficiently, returning +63.5% ROI on 29 trades. Top performer: HDP Sniper at +$3224.33.
See AI signals as they happen
This report shows settled results. Get real-time AI signals during live matches.