Como1 - 2Fiorentina
Como2 trades, 100% precision — how did AI read this match?
Match Overview
Como hosted Fiorentina in the Serie A, finishing 1-2. Goals: N. Fagioli (26'), M. Kean (54' pen), L. Ranieri (77' OG), F. Parisi (77' OG). Fiorentina received a red card (P. Vanoli, 70'). OddsFlow deployed 2 trades across 1 wave, achieving 100% precision with a net result of +$130.03 (ROI: +65.0%).
Pre-Match Odds
The Asian Handicap held at -0.75 but home odds shifted from 1.91 to 1.86; the Over/Under line shifted from 2.5 to 2.75.
Trade Wave Analysis
### Wave 1 — Minute 84' (Score: 1-2) **Context:** Fiorentina leading 1-2 at 84'. 1 model (oddsflow_core_v8.1) entered Asian Handicap markets, targeting Como +0.25 and Como +0.5. Average expected value was 7.3%, with a combined stake of $200. The sharpest edge was on Como +0.5 (Asian Handicap): OddsFlow calculated 63.7% probability versus the market's implied 55.6% — a 8.1 percentage point gap at odds of 1.8. **Result:** All 2 trades won, netting +$130.03.
Model Performance
- **oddsflow_core_v8.1**: 2 trades, 1W/0L/1V, +$130.03 (ROI: +65.0%)
Match Statistics
Possession was 67%–33% in Como's favor. Como had 16 shots (3 on target) versus Fiorentina's 7 (3 on target). Expected goals: Como 0.84 — Fiorentina 1.49. Corners: 4-2.
Verdict
A highly profitable match for OddsFlow. The AI models identified significant mispricings and converted them efficiently, returning +65.0% ROI.
What the closing market expected
The prices bookmakers settled on before kick-off, with the margin removed, next to what actually happened.
| Market | Line | Implied probability |
|---|---|---|
| 1X2 (home / draw / away) | Favourite: Home | 59.9% / 24.7% / 18.9% |
| Asian handicap | -0.75 | 53.8% |
| Over / Under | 2.75 | 51.8% |
Probabilities are de-vigged, so they describe the market's view rather than the price you would have been offered.
The market significantly mispriced Fiorentina's 1x2 win probability.
Como's 1-2 loss to Fiorentina exposed a significant 1x2 market inefficiency. The closing lines heavily favored Como with a 59.88% implied win probability, while Fiorentina was a distant underdog at 18.87%. This outcome represents substantial Closing Line Value (CLV) on the away win. On the Asian Handicap, Como as -0.75 favorites failed to cover, further confirming the market's overestimation of the home side. The Goals Over/Under 2.75 market, priced at 51.81% for the Over, correctly anticipated the 3 total goals, indicating a relatively efficient totals market.
A highly profitable match for OddsFlow. The AI models identified significant mispricings and converted them efficiently, returning +65.0% ROI on 2 trades.
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