Como

2 - 1

AS Roma

Como hosted AS Roma in the Serie A, finishing 2-1. Goals: D. Malen (6' pen), L. Pellegrini (6' pen), D. Malen (7' pen), A. Douvikas (59'), Diego Carlos (79'). AS Roma received a red card (Wesley Franca, 64'). OddsFlow deployed 16 trades across 5 waves, achieving 56% precision with a net result of +$2473.90 (ROI: +25.8%).

The Asian Handicap line moved from -0.25 to -0.5; the Over/Under stayed at 2.25 with Over odds moving from 1.9 to 2.03; the home moneyline shortened from 2.19 to 2.09.

### Wave 1 — Minute 25' (Score: 0-1) **Context:** AS Roma leading 0-1 at 25'. 3 models (system4_MC_v10, system4_BLEND_v10, system4_HYBRID_v10) entered Asian Handicap markets, targeting Como +0.5. Average expected value was 41.1%, with a combined stake of $3390. The sharpest edge was on Como +0.5 (Asian Handicap): OddsFlow calculated 91.9% probability versus the market's implied 51.9% — a 39.9 percentage point gap at odds of 1.925. **Result:** All 3 trades won, netting +$3078.90. ### Wave 2 — Minute 34' (Score: 0-1) **Context:** AS Roma leading 0-1 at 34'. 2 models (system4_BLEND_v10, system4_MC_v10) entered Asian Handicap markets, targeting Como -0.5. Average expected value was 10.7%, with a combined stake of $1000. The sharpest edge was on Como -0.5 (Asian Handicap): OddsFlow calculated 56.4% probability versus the market's implied 48.2% — a 8.2 percentage point gap at odds of 2.075. **Result:** All 2 trades won, netting +$1075.00. ### Wave 3 — Minute 40' (Score: 0-1) **Context:** AS Roma leading 0-1 at 40'. 3 models (system4_HYBRID_v10, system4_BLEND_v10, system4_MC_v10) entered Asian Handicap and Moneyline markets, targeting AS Roma 0 and AS Roma. Average expected value was 10.9%, with a combined stake of $2000. The sharpest edge was on AS Roma 0 (Asian Handicap): OddsFlow calculated 48.1% probability versus the market's implied 37.4% — a 10.7 percentage point gap at odds of 2.675. **Result:** All 4 trades lost, netting $-2000.00. ### Wave 4 — Minute 59' (Score: 1-1) **Context:** Level at 1-1 after A. Douvikas's equalizer at 59'. 3 models (system4_HYBRID_v10, system4_MC_v10, system4_BLEND_v10) entered Over/Under and Moneyline markets, targeting Over 2.5 and Draw. Average expected value was 20.0%, with a combined stake of $3000. The sharpest edge was on Over 2.5 (Over/Under): OddsFlow calculated 70.0% probability versus the market's implied 40.0% — a 30.0 percentage point gap at odds of 2.5. **Result:** 3 of 6 trades won, netting +$50.00. ### Wave 5 — Minute 64' (Score: 1-1) **Context:** Level at 1-1 after A. Douvikas's equalizer at 59'. AS Roma down to 10 men (Wesley Franca red card 64'). 1 model (oddsflow_core_v8.1) entered Asian Handicap markets, targeting Como -0.25. Average expected value was 5.4%, with a combined stake of $200. The sharpest edge was on Como -0.25 (Asian Handicap): OddsFlow calculated 47.9% probability versus the market's implied 42.6% — a 5.4 percentage point gap at odds of 2.35. **Result:** All 1 trades won, netting +$270.00.

- **Minute 25'** — Asian Handicap Como +0.5: AI saw 91.9% vs market's 51.9% (39.9pp gap). correctly identified. - **Minute 25'** — Asian Handicap Como +0.5: AI saw 91.5% vs market's 51.9% (39.5pp gap). correctly identified. - **Minute 26'** — Asian Handicap Como +0.5: AI saw 91.1% vs market's 53.3% (37.8pp gap). correctly identified. - **Minute 59'** — Over/Under Over 2.5: AI saw 70.0% vs market's 40.0% (30.0pp gap). correctly identified. - **Minute 59'** — Moneyline Draw: AI saw 51.7% vs market's 30.8% (20.9pp gap). did not convert, but edge was real.

- **system4_BLEND_v10**: 5 trades, 3W/2L, +$1324.43 (ROI: +42.4%) - **system4_MC_v10**: 5 trades, 3W/2L, +$984.60 (ROI: +31.4%) - **oddsflow_core_v8.1**: 1 trades, 1W/0L, +$270.00 (ROI: +135.0%) - **system4_HYBRID_v10**: 5 trades, 2W/3L, $-105.12 (ROI: -3.4%)

Possession was 66%–34% in Como's favor. Como had 22 shots (7 on target) versus AS Roma's 3 (1 on target). Expected goals: Como 2.2 — AS Roma 0.86. Corners: 7-1.