Cagliari0 - 2Udinese
CagliariWhy did AI enter 8 times at 0', 15', 25', 34', 48', 55', 58', 61' — and still finish $-1778?
Match Overview
Cagliari hosted Udinese in the Serie A, finishing 0-2. Goals: A. Buksa (56'), I. Gueye (90'). OddsFlow deployed 20 trades across 8 waves, achieving 45% precision with a net result of $-1777.50 (ROI: -19.1%).
Pre-Match Odds
The Asian Handicap line moved from -0.25 to 0; the Over/Under stayed at 2.25 with Over odds moving from 1.97 to 2.02; the home moneyline drifted out from 2.45 to 2.69.
Trade Wave Analysis
### Wave 1 — Minute 0' (Score: 0-0) **Context:** Scoreless at 0'. 1 model (S5.1_Pre) entered Moneyline markets, targeting Cagliari. Average expected value was 16.8%, with a combined stake of $504. The sharpest edge was on Cagliari (Moneyline): OddsFlow calculated 43.8% probability versus the market's implied 37.5% — a 6.3 percentage point gap at odds of 2.67. **Result:** All 2 trades lost, netting $-504.00. ### Wave 2 — Minute 15' (Score: 0-0) **Context:** Scoreless at 15'. 1 model (oddsflow_core_v8.1) entered Asian Handicap markets, targeting Udinese 0. Average expected value was 9.9%, with a combined stake of $200. The sharpest edge was on Udinese 0 (Asian Handicap): OddsFlow calculated 53.7% probability versus the market's implied 46.5% — a 7.2 percentage point gap at odds of 2.15. **Result:** All 1 trades won, netting +$230.00. ### Wave 3 — Minute 25' (Score: 0-0) **Context:** Scoreless at 25'. 2 models (system4_MC_v10, system4_BLEND_v10) entered Asian Handicap and Moneyline markets, targeting Udinese 0 and Cagliari. Average expected value was 8.8%, with a combined stake of $2000. The sharpest edge was on Udinese 0 (Asian Handicap): OddsFlow calculated 56.8% probability versus the market's implied 46.5% — a 10.3 percentage point gap at odds of 2.15. **Result:** 2 of 4 trades won, netting +$150.00. ### Wave 4 — Minute 34' (Score: 0-0) **Context:** Scoreless at 34'. 1 model (system4_HYBRID_v10) entered Moneyline and Asian Handicap markets, targeting Cagliari and Udinese 0. Average expected value was 11.0%, with a combined stake of $1000. The sharpest edge was on Udinese 0 (Asian Handicap): OddsFlow calculated 58.8% probability versus the market's implied 44.4% — a 14.3 percentage point gap at odds of 2.25. **Result:** 1 of 2 trades won, netting +$125.00. ### Wave 5 — Minute 48' (Score: 0-0) **Context:** Scoreless at 48'. 2 models (system4_MC_v10, system4_HYBRID_v10) entered Moneyline markets, targeting Draw. Average expected value was 4.6%, with a combined stake of $1000. **Result:** All 2 trades lost, netting $-1000.00. ### Wave 6 — Minute 55' (Score: 0-0) **Context:** Scoreless at 55'. 3 models (system4_MC_v10, system4_HYBRID_v10, system4_BLEND_v10) entered Asian Handicap and Moneyline markets, targeting Cagliari +0.5 and Draw. Average expected value was 34.3%, with a combined stake of $2111. The sharpest edge was on Cagliari +0.5 (Asian Handicap): OddsFlow calculated 81.0% probability versus the market's implied 40.0% — a 41.0 percentage point gap at odds of 2.5. **Result:** All 4 trades lost, netting $-2111.00. ### Wave 7 — Minute 58' (Score: 0-1) **Context:** Udinese leading 0-1 at 58'. A. Buksa scored moments ago. 3 models (system4_BLEND_v10, system4_MC_v10, system4_HYBRID_v10) entered Moneyline markets, targeting Udinese. Average expected value was 6.6%, with a combined stake of $1500. **Result:** All 3 trades won, netting +$799.50. ### Wave 8 — Minute 61' (Score: 0-1) **Context:** Udinese leading 0-1 at 61'. A. Buksa scored moments ago. 2 models (system4_MC_v10, system4_BLEND_v10) entered Over/Under markets, targeting Over 1.5. Average expected value was 8.0%, with a combined stake of $1000. **Result:** All 2 trades won, netting +$533.00.
Key Mispricing Moments
- **Minute 55'** — Asian Handicap Cagliari +0.5: AI saw 81.0% vs market's 40.0% (41.0pp gap). did not convert, but edge was real. - **Minute 55'** — Asian Handicap Cagliari +0.5: AI saw 80.4% vs market's 40.0% (40.4pp gap). did not convert, but edge was real. - **Minute 55'** — Asian Handicap Cagliari +0.5: AI saw 80.0% vs market's 40.0% (40.0pp gap). did not convert, but edge was real. - **Minute 34'** — Asian Handicap Udinese 0: AI saw 58.8% vs market's 44.4% (14.3pp gap). correctly identified. - **Minute 25'** — Asian Handicap Udinese 0: AI saw 56.8% vs market's 46.5% (10.3pp gap). correctly identified.
Model Performance
- **oddsflow_core_v8.1**: 1 trades, 1W/0L, +$230.00 (ROI: +115.0%) - **system4_MC_v10**: 6 trades, 3W/3L, $-428.00 (ROI: -14.1%) - **system4_BLEND_v10**: 6 trades, 3W/3L, $-435.00 (ROI: -14.3%) - **S5.1_Pre**: 2 trades, 0W/2L, $-504.00 (ROI: -100.0%) - **system4_HYBRID_v10**: 5 trades, 2W/3L, $-640.50 (ROI: -25.3%)
Match Statistics
Possession was 63–37 in Cagliari's favor. Cagliari had 22 shots (5 on target) versus Udinese's 9 (6 on target). Expected goals: Cagliari 1.41 — Udinese 2.17. Corners: 8-4.
Verdict
A tough session at -19.1% ROI. The market moved against OddsFlow's positions, though the underlying probability assessments may still prove correct over a larger sample. Top performer: oddsflow_core_v8.1 at +$230.00.
What the closing market expected
The prices bookmakers settled on before kick-off, with the margin removed, next to what actually happened.
| Market | Line | Implied probability |
|---|---|---|
| 1X2 (home / draw / away) | Favourite: Home | 37.2% / 32.6% / 32.9% |
| Asian handicap | 0 | 54.0% |
| Over / Under | 2.25 | 49.5% |
Probabilities are de-vigged, so they describe the market's view rather than the price you would have been offered.
The market significantly undervalued Udinese's outright win potential in the 1x2 and Handicap markets.
In the Serie A clash between Cagliari and Udinese, the visitors secured a decisive 0-2 victory. The 1x2 market showed Cagliari as a slight favorite with a 37.17% implied win probability, compared to Udinese's 32.89%. This proved to be a significant market inefficiency, as Udinese delivered a dominant performance, demonstrating clear EV+ for bettors backing the away side. Similarly, in the Handicap market at 0, Cagliari was favored to cover with a 54.05% probability; however, Udinese's 2-goal margin easily covered their side of the line, exposing the market's overestimation of the home team. Conversely, the Goals Over/Under market was more efficient, leaning **Under 2.25 goals** with a 53.19% probability, which aligned perfectly with the final two-goal tally, offering strong Closing Line Value for Under bettors.
A tough session at -19.1% ROI. The market moved against OddsFlow's positions. Top performer: Oddsflow Core Strategy at +$230.00.
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