Cagliari2 - 1Torino
CagliariWhy did AI enter 4 times at 0', 38', 47', 63' — and still finish $-7?
Match Overview
Cagliari hosted Torino in the Serie A, finishing 2-1. Goals: R. Obrador (37'), R. Obrador (38'), S. Esposito (39'), Y. Mina (45'). OddsFlow deployed 19 trades across 4 waves, achieving 42% precision with a net result of $-7.17 (ROI: -0.4%).
Pre-Match Odds
The Asian Handicap held at -0.25 but home odds shifted from 2.04 to 1.99; the Over/Under stayed at 2.25 with Over odds moving from 1.99 to 2.05.
Trade Wave Analysis
### Wave 1 — Minute 0' (Score: 0-0) **Context:** Scoreless at 0'. 1 model (S5.1_Pre) entered Over/Under markets, targeting Over 2.25. Average expected value was 16.2%, with a combined stake of $10. **Result:** All 1 trades won, netting +$10.50. ### Wave 2 — Minute 38' (Score: 0-0) **Context:** Scoreless at 38'. 2 models (system4_BLEND_v10, system4_MC_v10) entered Asian Handicap markets, targeting Cagliari +0.5. Average expected value was 32.7%, with a combined stake of $223. The sharpest edge was on Cagliari +0.5 (Asian Handicap): OddsFlow calculated 77.5% probability versus the market's implied 47.6% — a 29.9 percentage point gap at odds of 2.1. **Result:** All 2 trades won, netting +$245.30. ### Wave 3 — Minute 47' (Score: 1-1) **Context:** Level at 1-1 after Y. Mina's equalizer at 45'. 3 models (system4_MC_v10, system4_BLEND_v10, system4_HYBRID_v10) entered Asian Handicap and Over/Under and Moneyline markets, targeting Torino -1 and Under 4.5 and Under 4 and Draw. Average expected value was 43.3%, with a combined stake of $941. The sharpest edge was on Torino -1 (Asian Handicap): OddsFlow calculated 91.8% probability versus the market's implied 46.5% — a 45.2 percentage point gap at odds of 2.15. **Result:** 5 of 8 trades won, netting +$360.03. ### Wave 4 — Minute 63' (Score: 2-1) **Context:** Cagliari leading 2-1 at 63'. 3 models (system4_HYBRID_v10, system4_BLEND_v10, system4_MC_v10) entered Over/Under markets, targeting Over 3.5 and Over 3.75. Average expected value was 27.4%, with a combined stake of $623. The sharpest edge was on Over 3.75 (Over/Under): OddsFlow calculated 70.0% probability versus the market's implied 50.8% — a 19.2 percentage point gap at odds of 1.97. **Result:** All 8 trades lost, netting $-623.00.
Key Mispricing Moments
- **Minute 47'** — Asian Handicap Torino -1: AI saw 91.8% vs market's 46.5% (45.2pp gap). correctly identified. - **Minute 47'** — Over/Under Under 4: AI saw 83.8% vs market's 46.1% (37.7pp gap). correctly identified. - **Minute 47'** — Over/Under Under 4: AI saw 83.7% vs market's 46.1% (37.6pp gap). correctly identified. - **Minute 47'** — Asian Handicap Torino -1: AI saw 85.8% vs market's 48.8% (37.0pp gap). did not convert, but edge was real. - **Minute 47'** — Asian Handicap Torino -1: AI saw 85.7% vs market's 48.8% (36.9pp gap). did not convert, but edge was real.
Model Performance
- **system4_HYBRID_v10**: 3 trades, 1W/2L, +$32.40 (ROI: +10.7%) - **system4_BLEND_v10**: 7 trades, 3W/3L/1V, +$25.25 (ROI: +3.6%) - **S5.1_Pre**: 1 trades, 1W/0L, +$10.50 (ROI: +105.0%) - **system4_MC_v10**: 8 trades, 3W/4L/1V, $-75.32 (ROI: -9.5%)
Match Statistics
Possession was 46–54 in Cagliari's deficit. Cagliari had 13 shots (4 on target) versus Torino's 9 (3 on target). Expected goals: Cagliari 1.62 — Torino 0.79. Corners: 5-1.
Verdict
A marginally negative session at -0.4% ROI. The edge identification was sound but variance went against the positions. Top performer: system4_HYBRID_v10 at +$32.40.
What the closing market expected
The prices bookmakers settled on before kick-off, with the margin removed, next to what actually happened.
| Market | Line | Implied probability |
|---|---|---|
| 1X2 (home / draw / away) | Favourite: Home | 42.5% / 31.9% / 28.3% |
| Asian handicap | -0.25 | 51.8% |
| Over / Under | 2.25 | 48.8% |
Probabilities are de-vigged, so they describe the market's view rather than the price you would have been offered.
The market significantly underestimated the probability of Over 2.25 goals.
Cagliari secured a 2-1 victory over Torino, resulting in 3 total goals. The 1x2 market correctly identified Cagliari as the slight favorite, with our model indicating a 42.55% win probability for the home side, which materialized. In the Asian Handicap market, Cagliari -0.25 surprisingly covered, despite the market narrowly favoring Torino +0.25 with a 51.81% probability. However, the most significant market inefficiency was in the Totals market. The closing line heavily favored Under 2.25 goals at a 53.76% implied probability, yet the match finished with 3 goals. This outcome provided substantial Closing Line Value (CLV) for those who backed Over 2.25 goals, as the market sentiment was clearly skewed towards a lower-scoring affair. OddsFlow identified this as a strong EV+ signal post-match.
A marginally negative session at -0.4% ROI. The edge identification was sound but variance went against the positions. Top performer: Oddsflow Beta at +$32.40.
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