Cagliari0 - 1Napoli
CagliariWhy did AI enter 3 times at 30', 63', 71' — and still finish +$2126?
Match Overview
Cagliari hosted Napoli in the Serie A, finishing 0-1. Goals: S. McTominay (2'). OddsFlow deployed 10 trades across 3 waves, achieving 70% precision with a net result of +$2125.84 (ROI: +43.4%).
Pre-Match Odds
The Asian Handicap held at 0.75 but home odds shifted from 2.03 to 1.88; the Over/Under line shifted from 2.25 to 2; the home moneyline shortened from 5.89 to 5.59.
Trade Wave Analysis
### Wave 1 — Minute 30' (Score: 0-1) **Context:** Napoli leading 0-1 at 30'. 2 models (system4_BLEND_v10, system4_MC_v10) entered Over/Under and Moneyline and Asian Handicap markets, targeting Over 2.5 and Napoli and Cagliari +0.5 and Cagliari +1.5. Average expected value was 21.7%, with a combined stake of $4198. The sharpest edge was on Cagliari +1.5 (Asian Handicap): OddsFlow calculated 81.0% probability versus the market's implied 51.9% — a 29.0 percentage point gap at odds of 1.925. **Result:** 6 of 8 trades won, netting +$1871.34. ### Wave 2 — Minute 63' (Score: 0-1) **Context:** Napoli leading 0-1 at 63'. 1 model (oddsflow_core_v8.1) entered Asian Handicap markets, targeting Napoli +1.25. Average expected value was 14.3%, with a combined stake of $200. The sharpest edge was on Napoli +1.25 (Asian Handicap): OddsFlow calculated 64.3% probability versus the market's implied 50.0% — a 14.3 percentage point gap at odds of 2. **Result:** All 1 trades lost, netting $-200.00. ### Wave 3 — Minute 71' (Score: 0-1) **Context:** Napoli leading 0-1 at 71'. 1 model (oddsflow_core_v8.1) entered Over/Under markets, targeting Under 2.5. Average expected value was 21.1%, with a combined stake of $500. The sharpest edge was on Under 2.5 (Over/Under): OddsFlow calculated 63.0% probability versus the market's implied 52.4% — a 10.6 percentage point gap at odds of 1.909. **Result:** All 1 trades won, netting +$454.50.
Key Mispricing Moments
- **Minute 32'** — Asian Handicap Cagliari +1.5: AI saw 81.0% vs market's 51.9% (29.0pp gap). correctly identified. - **Minute 32'** — Asian Handicap Cagliari +1.5: AI saw 80.2% vs market's 51.9% (28.2pp gap). correctly identified. - **Minute 30'** — Over/Under Over 2.5: AI saw 60.9% vs market's 40.0% (20.9pp gap). did not convert, but edge was real. - **Minute 30'** — Over/Under Over 2.5: AI saw 60.6% vs market's 40.0% (20.6pp gap). did not convert, but edge was real. - **Minute 30'** — Moneyline Napoli: AI saw 76.4% vs market's 57.9% (18.5pp gap). correctly identified.
Model Performance
- **system4_MC_v10**: 4 trades, 3W/1L, +$1003.48 (ROI: +45.8%) - **system4_BLEND_v10**: 4 trades, 3W/1L, +$867.86 (ROI: +43.3%) - **oddsflow_core_v8.1**: 2 trades, 1W/1L, +$254.50 (ROI: +36.4%)
Match Statistics
Possession was 32%–68% in Cagliari's deficit. Cagliari had 6 shots (0 on target) versus Napoli's 17 (5 on target). Expected goals: Cagliari 0.32 — Napoli 1.77. Corners: 1-7.
Verdict
A highly profitable match for OddsFlow. The AI models identified significant mispricings and converted them efficiently, returning +43.4% ROI. Top performer: system4_MC_v10 at +$1003.48.
A highly profitable match for OddsFlow. The AI models identified significant mispricings and converted them efficiently, returning +43.4% ROI on 10 trades. Top performer: HDP Sniper at +$1003.48.
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